The Belmont will be ROTW

[TGJB]

Don\'t say I never gave you anything.

[rosewood]

Very unselfish act Jerry...........

[Leamas57]

A Prince in the service of the Sport of Kings....

[ROBERT49]

WOW! Thx.

[spa]

It appears Mr. Brown will shoot a fish in a barrel...........

[covelj70]

JB,

this is the one that you need to let Jimbo do, he\'s sitting on a big new top!

[TGJB]

Who\'s stopping him? Besides, I think he already did it. I just took what he said and mixed it up a little.

[TGJB]

You know, there have been a lot of posts like this recently. If you have something to add to the conversation, please do. If you can\'t do that, be funny. If you can\'t do either, don\'t fill my board up with inane putdowns, of me or anyone else.

[girly]

Te He He-You\'re the funny guy TGJB! I like Jimbo\'s posts very much-and thank you for the ROTW!

[msola1]

Jerry,

Thanks a lot for this treat. If you check my records you\'ll see just how small a player I am, so this means a lot to someone like me.

As for spa, maybe you could put a flag whenever he comments that alerts us, something like \"A**HOLE.\"

Mike

[Michael D.]

Summer Bird - willing to excuse the Derby effort in the slop. Bred to go long, and his first 2 routes suggest 12f is within reach. Desormeaux up, gets blinkers. 1w/4w trip expected. needs to improve just a few lengths on the 4/11 effort to be in the mix here. SB the key at a price.

Choc Candy - line through the Derby. still looks slow though - if you pick this guy, you are betting on a decent jump 1st dry dirt. I am right on the fence here, but at 13-1 or so, and Gomez up from post 1, I am going to bet on a solid race.

Dunk - line through the Derby. decent cruising speed. paired up negative figures going 9f in 2nd and 3rd career starts suggest distance might be within reach. strong jock. perfect post.


Summer Bird the key, use CC and Dunk.

[P-Dub]

Michael D,

As usual, your analysis looks solid.  Nothing more I can really add, as you are using the 2 price horses that look to run well. Interesting that you didn\'t mention Charitable Man. What do you plan on doing with him??

Spa,

Put a sock in it. You\'ve been really lame for some time now.

[sekrah]

Agree on Summer Bird being a big player here.

I\'m not sold on Chocolate Candy.  Only his post gives him a decent chance here at sneaking into the backend of the exotics.

Dunkirk is a definent use. And I\'m having trouble shaking the nagging thought for the potential for Miner\'s Escape to get out to an easy pace next to Charitable Man and hang on for a piece of the prize.   And I cannot in noway leave Mine That Bird off a ticket after I\'ve done twice in a row now.  He could pull a Smarty Jones/Afleet Alex and run 3 big Triple Crown races.


1st Tier - Charitable Man, Summer\'s Bird
2nd Tier - Dunkirk, Mine That Bird
3rd Tier - Chocolate Candy, Miner\'s Escape

[alm]

Thanks for the Belmont ROTW and for your analysis.  I haven\'t spent an enormous amount of time with this yet, but I want to question (not challenge) some of the assumptions you used for some of the runners.  

Charitable Man: you throw out his poly try and focus only on his improvement over his 2yo top to reduce the percentage that he will bounce off a large 6 point improvement between his last 2 races.  Why throw out the poly try? How do we know that this isn\'t a poly-loving horse (since he\'s only been on it once)?  Maybe the poly race was the best he could do and he is coming off a 6 point jump.  Wouldn\'t that suggest he MAY bounce?

Mine That Bird: you say he is reminiscent of Charismatic and War Emblem who were slow as 2yos, but got good in the spring.  Suppose, however, that MTB is a poly-hating horse.  Since that\'s all he ran on as a 2yo, maybe that\'s why his 2yo figures were slow.  He won most of those races...so maybe he was a very special 2yo, overcoming a very basic adversity.  Maybe this was a young horse crying out for dirt...and when he finally got on dirt, he began progressing dramatically.  In fact, his 3yo progression might be viewed very differently than you suggest in comparing his 3yo spring numbers to his 2yo numbers.  If this is the case, might not his 3yo numbers suggest he might even be sitting on another improvement?

Summer Bird: you forgive him for a monumental jump forward and I respect your analysis.  However, I don\'t like the added blinkers for a horse that\'s expected to be a closer.  If it were my horse and I believed in his strong Derby, I would not be messing around with it.  There is a possibility this one will show more speed and NO closing kick.  Maybe.

Your comments on Zito\'s 2 entries are fairly negative, but you suggest you might have to take them more seriously because of the \'Zito factor.\'  If there is one thing I\'ve learned as a bettor it\'s the admonition NOT to bet today\'s race thinking about the last race I lost.  I want to suggest that Zito\'s runners will not pull a fluke here...if you want to think about a factor, think about the \'Lucas factor,\' because his 2 entries look far more dangerous than Zito\'s do, this year.

All in all, I see MTB slipping at worst to a 2, if not improving off his pair up, and that may very well be enough to win this race.  I intend to key him with the 1, 2, 5, 6 and 8.  It\'s not a great scenario for a bettor and I hate to chase 2-1 shots in any race.  I just don\'t see these plugs beating him.

[Perfect Drift]

Looking for another inexplicable bomb... faves are ALL shaky...

Jenny Craig, Jr.: plodder with no explosive kick... good sign that he didn\'t blow a gasket in Derby.  Saves ground with GoGo... just can\'t picture him winning... exotics another story.

Dunkirk:  Stepping aside from his figs/pattern... not a single horse he has finished ahead of in his MSW, ALW or FL DERBY has come back to win any type of stakes race.  He has finished ahead of nothing and flopped in the Derby. Now he\'s going to beat the Derby winner, Peter Pan winner, Tesio winner and multiple G1 runners up.  Something smells here...

Mr. Cool Stuff: even with a dirt move up, too slow of a carpet top

Big Bird:  Couldn\'t he be sitting on the end of an 0 - 2 - X ??  Debuted 3/1/09 and now shoving in fifth race in 12 weeks?

Big Luv:  slow, Lukas... eh

Charitable Man:  sat off moronic speed horse who went 108 4/5 and is in Woody Stephens.  Comes in off a 0 on four weeks rest. Can\'t see a forward move at 12f in fifth career start.  Underlay as 2nd fave.

Big Big Bird: has cleaned me out of first two legs, but this is his Waterloo.  BIG Derby top, 1.25 regression in Preakness, now must pay the bill.  It\'s overdue.

FuPeg Jr.:  Ran a very big Preakness with minor trouble.  Even squeezed out a tiny top...good running style, wont be too far back.  He could definitely pair or run a small new top...I think this is the race key.

Miner\'s Mark:  interesting...Zito... big new top... but, we don\'t know how it will affect him and you get Lezcano instead of Leparoux on the Private.  

Dancing Brave:  top three back, poly yuck, then one point off with a BO... that is stinky and I don\'t like the looks of the whole package.  Zito has Lezcano and Maragh on his two horses?  HUH?

Oui, oui... Julien, it\'s all yours!