Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub

jimbo66 · May 28, 2009, 05:15:11 PM

P-Dub,

Not sure if you caught it, but Lemon Chiffon runs back this weekend. Specifically on Saturday at Hollywood. She drew post 11 so Mike Smith might have to give her a wide trip.... Seriously though, this filly looked very strong heading into the Churchill race but drew a very dead rail on the turf course. Even with the outside post, she could be very tough in this field. Will have to wait to see the sheets of her competition. With her closing style, the outside post shouldn\'t hurt too much. Gets six pounds from Diamond Diva, Magical Fantasy and Black Mamba, who are the top weighted horses. This could be a very juicy betting race. More to follow once TGAB and TGJB get off their cans and get the Saturday data up and available...........

spa · May 28, 2009, 08:51:20 PM

She will run a powerful race. Dead rail theory says they move up next start,,,,,,,,,,ps she\'s 15=1

P-Dub · May 29, 2009, 02:33:14 AM

Jimbo,

Didn\'t see that, I really liked her at CD and had a decent sized wager on her. Regarding Black Mamba, can\'t remember the race (perhaps BC weekend or Big Cap weekend) but she was an awful favorite on TG and made a nice score against her.

Good luck this weekend...looking forward to see what Mike does with LC.

Dana666 · May 30, 2009, 10:49:48 AM

Interesting, the rail was really dead at CD? I always liked this filly, and I think many of her foes today aren\'t that good. Diamond Diva, if she runs back to last year\'s form, is the main threat, but Diva wasn\'t that great upon her return. I\'d take a swing with Lemon Chiffon for sure. Could be a good P4 b/c in the 7th Miss Silver Brook looks formidable and the other two races are wide open, we could get some bombs. Could be the old single-all-single-all play!

spa · May 30, 2009, 05:19:05 PM

What kind of ride was that?

??

Dana666 · May 30, 2009, 09:11:54 PM

Well, he sure didn\'t ride her with any confidence. I may have over-rated her though. She ran a little late was all, not much kick at the end; maybe she doesn\'t want to go that far, though her breeding would indicate otherwise. Back to square one I guess.

miff · May 31, 2009, 07:11:17 AM

I\'ll disagree and say that her trip was very \"uncomfortable\" Think she ran better than her pp\'s will look.Smith tried to leave out of there for a spot and that did not work out.

Mike

P-Dub · May 31, 2009, 01:46:54 PM

spa Wrote:
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> What kind of ride was that?

??

You guys are beautiful.

If Smith rode Secratariat, you would complain because he didn\'t win by 35 lengths instead of 31.

What, Specifically, was wrong with the ride??

congaree1 · May 31, 2009, 01:53:29 PM

Nothing wrong with the ride, that I could see. My guess is the post sucked...

P-Dub · May 31, 2009, 02:30:11 PM

congaree1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nothing wrong with the ride, that I could see. My
> guess is the post sucked...

Agreed Congaree.

He had the 11 post, tried his best to minimize ground loss on the first turn. He saved a bit on the last turn while Black Mamba went widest of all.

BTW, if Smith had ridden BM, and had given that horse the same wide trip, what would you guys have to say then?? Roario had that horse last at every call, so don\'t give me the bad post excuse.

LC wasn\'t good enough, perhaps the distance was a bit much.

Where is the hysteria over Rosario\'s ride, or do we only selectively criticize rides around here, since so many of you are expert riders??

spa · May 31, 2009, 03:08:41 PM

How do you think Calvin would have ridden the filly? Who,by the way,ran a great race. Calvin gets all my money for the Belmont.............If you hate your money,bet against him.

congaree1 · May 31, 2009, 03:39:36 PM

Again, IMO LC drew a terrible post and she might be limited on the distance. Calvin would had the same results..

jimbo66 · May 31, 2009, 04:59:32 PM

Paul,

It was a lousy ride. He didn\'t cost her the race, she wasn\'t good enough, at least not yesterday. Perhaps it was the distance or maybe the cross country trek, or maybe she just is a cut below this type, but I would give her one more chance.

He had post 9, not 11, there were two scratches. And at 1 1/8 on the turf course, there is a lot of time to get over.

Smith had a choice to make, either leave a little and then tuck, to try and get midpack or just head over to the rail and let her late kick carry her, if she was good enough. Instead he tentatively left, got her caught 3 wide, in the middle of nowhere, then on the 2nd turn, he decided not to swing her wide and see if she had run, but rather let her muddle along in the middle of the track.

I think Miff had it right when he said she could never get comfortable during the race. At the right price, I would give her another shot at the right price.

This will not go into Smith\'s hall of fame scrapbook for good rides. It was lousy. It happens. Not just to Smith, but saying nothing was wrong with the ride when it was lousy isn\'t correct.

Michael D. · May 31, 2009, 06:18:54 PM

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Paul,
>
> It was a lousy ride. He didn\'t cost her the race,
> she wasn\'t good enough, at least not yesterday.
> Perhaps it was the distance or maybe the cross
> country trek, or maybe she just is a cut below
> this type, but I would give her one more chance.
>
> He had post 9, not 11, there were two scratches.
> And at 1 1/8 on the turf course, there is a lot of
> time to get over.
>
> Smith had a choice to make, either leave a little
> and then tuck, to try and get midpack or just head
> over to the rail and let her late kick carry her,
> if she was good enough. Instead he tentatively
> left, got her caught 3 wide, in the middle of
> nowhere, then on the 2nd turn, he decided not to
> swing her wide and see if she had run, but rather
> let her muddle along in the middle of the track.
>
>
> I think Miff had it right when he said she could
> never get comfortable during the race. At the
> right price, I would give her another shot at the
> right price.
>
> This will not go into Smith\'s hall of fame
> scrapbook for good rides. It was lousy. It
> happens. Not just to Smith, but saying nothing
> was wrong with the ride when it was lousy isn\'t
> correct.

The ride was just fine Jim. There was no rail trip coming, not with that horse from that post. And there was no perfect 2w trip from the 9 hole. You got the trip you should have handicapped.

P-Dub · June 01, 2009, 01:32:03 AM

spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> How do you think Calvin would have ridden the
> filly? Who,by the way,ran a great race. Calvin
> gets all my money for the Belmont.............If
> you hate your money,bet against him.

Spa,

You didn\'t answer my question. I asked you to specifically tell me what was wrong with the ride. I didn\'t ask you how the greatest rider in history, Calvin Borel, would have ridden the horse.

Apparently to win a race, all you have to do is hire Borel and watch him magically ride the rail to victory. The post doesn\'t matter, nor does it matter how many horses may be in the way of getting to the rail. Yep, that Borel guy will save ground and win..every time.

BTW, if you want to bet on Borel at around 2-1 for the Belmont, knock yourself out. Don\'t pull a Chuckles and tell me you had the winner if MTB loses.

I sincerely hope that Borel tries to come up the rail sometime soon and gets trapped, so I don\'t have to read anymore nonsense about how this guy always saves ground and wins. You may get tired of me defending Smith, but its double for me reading how if only Calvin had ridden \"fill in the blank\" he/she would have won.

Borel is an excellent rider, and I\'m not saying he can\'t ride. Far from it, dude is fearless and I have no problem having my money on him. But enough already.

Jimbo,

11 post or 9 post, your splitting hairs with this distinction. You\'re saying he should haave choked the filly back to last. dropped to the rail, come up the rail on the last turn and win?? Really??

He let that filly put herself where SHE wanted to be, a little wide?? Yes, but what do you expect with that post?? The trip wasn\'t that bad, 3 wide down the backstretch, about 5 lengths off a 47 3/5 half, clear running. Smith saved as much ground as he could turning for home, at least 3 paths better than Black Mamba who was dead last.

Once again, Black Mamba was last at every call yet Rosario had to swing that horse out to the grandstand turning for home. Curious how NOBODY wants to comment on that move. If Smith had ridden Black Mamba......do we really have to guess what 20 people would have posted by now??

She got the trip to be expected, regardless of who rode her. If she drops back to last and saves ground.....if you want to believe that would have been the winning move its obvious nobody can change that opinion. You are certainly entitled to it, I just don\'t think it would have been that easy.

Jimbo, enjoyed the conversation. We\'ll just have to disagree on this one. Respect your opinion.

PS: Liked seeing my name in the subject heading. I guess someone pays attention to me.

PPS: NO Jerry. I don\'t have CTC syndrome.