Belmont may not be as juicy as many are hoping

[covelj70]

the enthusiasm for a huge score opportunity in the Belmont is palpable on the board here and that\'s very cool.

However, even if both the big filly and MTB both run, I don\'t know that the potential for the big score will be as significant as many are hoping.

JB, you might be a victim of your own success in this regard as many gamblers are becoming increasingly aware of the bounce and how important it is to space races.

The real gamblers all knew there was an issue with Big Brown which is why the place and show pools were so disappointing last year. There were no bridge jumpers like there might have been in other situations where a 1-9 fav finishes off the board in a huge pool because very few real gamblers bet him, especially after he showed signs of an issue by not switching leads in his gallop the day before the race.

Of course there will be a better than normal opportunity to make money because there are alot of 3 time a year folks that play the Triple Crown but I don\'t know too many big bettors that are going to lay it all down on the Big Filly or MTB after what has happened in the Belmont the last 10 years and with the increasing awareness among gamblers of bounce theory and spacing.  I am sure someone will post what the triple paid last year in an attempt to show how much can be made in these situations but I don\'t think too many real players hit the triple last year.  I think only Chuckles and the random number generator types had that one!

Remember, there was a time when beyer figures were a very valuable and differentiated handicapping tool.  Now they are a commodity.  TG will never be a commodity b/c the small gambler won\'t pay for the data but the concepts are being increasingly embraced by big players and that could at least somewhat mitigate the opportunity as it did last year.

Will still be a hell of alot of fun though!

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

If you are looking to beat bridge-jumpers in the show pool, then I guess you may not get a score in the Belmont, but don\'t worry about the odds on the board if the filly and Mine that Board run.  They will solidly be bet.  Guaranteed.  No if\'s, ands or buts.

Other than the show pool, Big Brown was bet huge, as expected, in all other pools.  The trick was expecting D\'Tara to run big.  Not an easy one to come up with.

[JR]

If they both run it could be another War Emblem/Proud Citizen type betting opportunity. You won\'t have a bridge jumping show pool because bridge jumpers have some idea about what they\'re doing. You will have plenty of overlays in the exotic pools. That said, I don\'t think they\'ll run the filly.