A few random derby thoughts.....

[jimbo66]

The winner was one tough one to come up with.  His form makes Giacomo look like a morning line favorite.  I really believe that 50-1 was a huge underlay on this horse.  I really don\'t think I would have taken 500-1 on him if it was offered.  I know he may have a had a nice pattern, but a slow \"nice pattern\" is still slow.  

One redboard thought.  About a week ago, somebody posted that with I Want Revenge looking \"bounce\" and Quality Road having just been scratched, didn\'t that open this derby up to many more possible winners?  That person was 100% right.  There were really two fast horses pointing for this race, IWR and Quality Road, both running negative 3\'s.  With both of them out, you are now looking at a couple horses that could run 0\'s being the \"fast ones\".  Suddenly it doesn\'t take a negative 2 to win the race.  So, you take a couple factors like a tightly packed rail that played extremely well, a rider who is the best around at sticking to the rail, and a horse with a top of 5 with a nice pattern that could jump forward a few points.  maybe without the golden rail, he runs a 3 and still doesn\'t contend for WPS.  But I bet after TGJB does the figures for today, he will see the rail was unbelievably strong and no doubt worth a couple points of performance.  Add a 1w/1w trip and you get the upset.

We will know in a few days, but this horse winning the Derby should make for a full Preakness field, something we don\'t often have.  Don\'t think he will scare anybody away.  I would set the \"over/under\" on the Derby Winner for the Preakness to be 10-1, which I think will probably be the longest price Derby winner in that race.

Not sure what happened to POTN.  Is it possible he is distance limited?  When I saw him pop out of the gate and watched how approaching the turn when all the other jockeys were pushing on their horses, Gomez was still riding \"high in the saddle\" seemingly with a ton of horse under him.  I thought he was going to be a runaway winner.  He raced a nice race, but the fact that he was life and death to hold off both Papa Clem and Musket Man, after seeming to have so much horse on the far turn, surprised me.

I haven\'t read anything yet on Friesan Fire but it is hard to believe he ran that bad.  Didn\'t like the horse at the price, but thought he was going to run well and be tough to keep out of the super.  18th out of 19?  

Respect the hell out of Bob Baffert.  He is 20 times the Derby trainer that Todd Pletcher ever will be.  He had POTN ready to go, even putting early speed into him, which not many thought he had. Yes, Dunkirk had a little stumble, but he recovered and was seemingly well positioned, but again a TAP horse had nothing in the Derby.

[Uncle Buck]

Here\'s what DRF had to say about FF:

Friesan Fire was severely compromised by getting stepped on coming out of the gate. Though he raced in seventh position and in the clear down the backside, he backed up around the far turn under Gabriel Saez. Friesan Fire came back to the unsaddling area with blood emanating from his left front foot. He had part of his left front foot ripped off, known as grabbing a quarter.

\"He got hit real bad leaving the gate,\" Jones said as he walked back to the barn. \"He\'s bleeding. If you see blood on the track, it\'s his.\"

[Silver Charm]

Not sure how Jones knows that. Lotta that blood could be some of mine.

Baffert did a great job in having his horse ready and deserves the credit.

I was 15 feet from Dunkirk in the paddock. The coat was good but the muscle foundation was lacking. As soon as the walking halter came off he started getting nervous and jumpy. This horse has more growing to do both physically and mentally. I would give Pletcher the benefit of the doubt and say he probably knew it. This horse has not been pushed in any of training.

The 3YO division is wide open now and its a long year. .

[Sandreadis]

I\'m assuming it was Papa Clem that stepped on FF.
Gary Stute on his walk to the paddock interviewed by Donna Barton.
Commenting on his chance against FF whom he had lost to @ FG.
He was glad PC \"was to FF\'s outside and maybe he could hem him in\"
Interesting.

[Uncle Buck]

Just watched the track/simulcast feed footage of the race on Twin Spires race replays - hadn\'t yet seen it. It could have been Clem or Advice that stepped on FF - he got into them both pretty good. Hold Me Back(ers) must have been salivating entering the far turn as he made that long sustained inside run the whole length of the backside - really caught the eye until he flattened out. Clem bounced off several at the start and at the finish - he\'s gonna need a suana. The new Churchill race caller did a lights out job.

Split Times: 22:98, 47:23, 1:12.09, 1:37.49, 2:02.66

[Caradoc]

Jimbo: I had the same impression as they went into the far turn.  Gomez was barely moving, as though he had a ton of horse.  All things considered, however, I bet POTN ran a significant new top yesterday -- he was in a photo with two horses whose prior tops were near zero, and lost ground relative to both -- so appearances were probably deceiving. If so, another California synthetics horse jumping up on dirt.  As if this game wasn\'t already hard enough.  

You are right on re: Baffert and Pletcher.  Even before yesterday, over half of Pletcher\'s trainees had X\'ed out in the Derby, going back to 1997.  Not good, particularly because these are spring 3yos.  For the same period, 35% of Baffert\'s horses X\'ed in the Derby.  One inference you can draw is that Pletcher\'s horses have been pushed hard to get on the Derby trail, and by Derby time many of them are over the top.

[MonmouthGuy]

I am not sure I agree with the assertion that POTN lost ground to PC and MM, who made respective 5 and 6 wide moves around the final turn.

[Caradoc]

MG: We can wait for the figs, but I have POTN 3w3w, PC 1.5w2w, and MM 1w3w.  Both PC and MM had very good position on the first turn, and maintained fairly good position around the second turn until tipping out.  We\'ll see how the TG ground man gets it.

[jimbo66]

Caradoc,

I think you are off on the 2nd turn.  PC was outside of POTN by halfway through the turn.  

But we\'ll see.

[sighthound]

Sounds like FF got totally beat up, bad (BloodHorse):

Meanwhile, Cindy Jones, assistant her trainer-husband Larry Jones, said Friesan Fire, who finished 18th as the Derby favorite, came out of the race with cuts and abrasions on at least three of his four feet and legs.  He grabbed a quarter in the left front, had a cut on the tendon in the right front, and a cut on his right rear back foot.  

He also had some leg webbing, apparently from another horse, embedded in one of his hooves.

[MonmouthGuy]

We\'ll see.

It will be interesting. You could be right, but I have to say that my visual impression was that POTN didn\'t move forward, but rather, like Col John, ran the same 3 he has been running at SA.