Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3

[Dana666]

This is an interesting bet for sure. Is it worth playing if we key Rachel??? I have a hard time thinking of how she can get beat, rain or not. Flying Spur was no match at all for her at Fairgrounds, not sure she going to be so much better with 7 weeks rest. Obviously, Dixie is her main, perhaps only threat. I hate to use both though if Rachel romps???

In the Woodford, I suppose off-turf could muddy the equation (no pun intendend), but I see a standout there in Court Vision - if its fair, the others are no match for this guy.

Ah, yes, the derby - everyone knows I like POTN - maybe throw a few others as savers, too - it could pay 100 bucks right? Rachel/Court Vision/POTN - maybe worth a tumble.

Good luck to all - you only need to win one on such a big weekend! PS Boy are Rags and T-G\'s different on the derby! Should be interesting in any event.

[Uncle Buck]

Obviously the only value at all surrounding the Oaks is tossing Rachel which appears a suicide mission on all fronts but I\'m considering it for a small play. You get 90% of the pool if she slips and you guess right

[toppled]

I think it would have to be a total deluge throughout Saturday to get the Woodford off the turf.  I\'m handicapping it for a good or yielding turf.  Last year Einstein won this on a good turf. I\'m using Einstein & Proudinsky.  

As far as the sheet differences between Thorographs & Rags, I don\'t see huge differences overall, I think any time the Thorographs are within 2-4 points faster in a race that\'s normal.  What I see are differences in several horses: Musket Man, Regal Ransom, Pioneerof the Nile, and Desert Party, and several races: the RB Lewis, Sam Davis,Illinois Derby & UAE Derby.

[jimbo66]

I think the Woodford is an interesting race.  I think the play is to go 3-deep in that race.  Proudinsky likes a little give in the ground and has run 0\'s in races on that kind of turf.  Gets a nice inside post and should save ground.  Have to include Court Vision, if he can run a 0 as a 3 year old, he might be able to run faster at 4.  I would use Zambezi Sun though as my longshot on the pick 3.  Was runningn 2\'s in Europe without lasix.  Came here and in his first race was rank early, then they moved him to synthetic and he didn\'t run too well on it.  Back to the turf, over a softer turf course he figures to like and the barn signals intentions by going to Garret Gomez.  At 10-1, very big value.

I will single Justwhistledixie in the Oaks.

Use these three in the Woodford.

Then go 6-deep in the Derby, using I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, Regal Ransom, West Side Bernie and Papa Clem.

Good luck.

[toppled]

There might be more value in the regular p3 into the Derby than the Oaks p3.

I\'m looking at tossing the ML favorite, Informed Decision, since she looks like a poly horse.  
I\'ll be playing Secret Gypsy, Game Face/Proudinsky/Dunkirk, Friesan Fire
I\'ll be saving with Einstein in the Woodford & then I\'ll throw a mini saver in with both Proudinsky & Einstein with West Side Bernie, Regal Ransom,I Want Revenge & Pioneerof the Nile.
My key is trying to get Proudinsky home at a good price.  

The best part is, there\'s no guessing what the turf condition will be & to make sure it\'s on the turf.

[TreadHead]

I\'m taking a long look at Zambezi Sun as well, unfortunately with the Frankel name it might kill some of the value and I think this horse is popping out at a lot of handicappers, but with any luck maybe we can still get 7 or 8 to one.

I think the Humana is really tough, but I do love the value too and plan to throw out the fave.  One horse I thought was interesting given the discussion here this spring was the 8, Modification.  Improves by double digits 1st time out dirt after 3 races on poly and has never gotten back there since after 8 more races.  Sound like anyone we know?

Of those 8 however, the best was an effort on the slop and her last 5 races have been off dirt.  Can you go poly to dirt huge twice in your career with a year spacing in between?

I think Royal Michele and Bear Now are going to love an off going as well, so it makes it a very tough race IMO.

[chrifron]

I am in agreement with your point on Zambesi Sun--if I remember correctly, after the turf race in Feb--when they asked Gomez what happened, he held up his hands and showed the deep red indentations made by the reins from attempting to rate the horse.  It\'s not often you get 10-1 on a Gr 1 winner from France with incredible company lines like this guy has--don\'t know why they ran him in Big Cap, but Frankel was high on his chances. I think 13 days between races was too quick a turnaround. The horse was well-backed in the 2007 Arc and ran decent--ran poorly in the 2008 Arc.

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

A couple of comments on the Woodford, which will likely be run on a turf course
which is soft or yielding.

1) El Caballo, Cowboy Cal and Thorn Song look to provide some pace. Cowboy Cal
was beaten 3/4 length in the Hollywood Derby at equal weight by Court Vision;
According to DRF, Pletcher is 22% going from synth to turf. CC gets 5 lbs from
CV Saturday.

2) Zambesi Sun has run 13 times in his career. The shortest race he ever
competed in was his last start at 10f synthetic. All of his other races have
been at distances of 1-5/16 or 1-1/2 miles.

3) Battaglia has Proudinsky at 6/1; I make him a 3/1 second fave behind
Einstein.

4) I am looking a little bit at Artiste Royale. Last year in this race, he was
beaten 2 lengths by Einstein (equal weights). The DRF comment for his effort
that day was \"4 wide stretch\"; TG had him \"off rail, 4 wide move\". On Saturday,
AR draws the rail. The biggest knock on AR is his lack of recent form on a turf
course other than firm or good. Similarly, Court Vision and Cow Cal have very
limited experience on turf courses labeled other than firm.

[richiebee]

Toppled:

You say Informed Decision is a \"poly horse\", but she is 3 for 5 on (dry) dirt,
including a 7f stake win at Belmont.

I think Secret Gypsy could bounce second back off a 3 month layoff.

Royale Michele is 3/3 wet, and her sire\'s sons and daughters win at 19% on wet
tracks.

My bomb here is Dubai Majesty, who is 15/1 ML. She has run close to the
contenders in this race, and her lifetime best TG came in her one race at CD.
No wet track experience. Trainer Calhoun\'s strike rate in graded stakes nearly
25% from a limited sample.

Verrry Interesting: John Velazquez has ridden Game Face 7 times, winning 4
times. Gomez will ride GF for the first time Saturday, JV has no mount in the
race.

Using: ID, GF, RM, DM in multiple race wagers.

[colt]

Verrry Interesting: John Velazquez has ridden Game Face 7 times, winning 4
times. Gomez will ride GF for the first time Saturday, JV has no mount in the
race.
==============================================================================
JV gave up the calls on ID & GF to ride Indian Blessing, who was withdrawn from consideration when entries were taken.

[Wrongly]

I also think there\'s value in that Pick 3 - I thought I saw somewhere that Informed Decision may scratch because of poor works.  Secret Gypsy might not like the off going but if the track is playing towards speed I might have to use her with Game Face and Royale Michele.  I looked at the Woodford several times and have concluded that I\'m reaching for anything but a single on Einstien.  Bombs away in the last leg, no IWR or FF.  Sounds like the state of Kentucky will be betting FF while the left coast will be on Weight Watchers CC.

[richiebee]

Thanks for the explanation, Colt.