Is Dunkirk Going To Get To Lousville Before This Saturday

Silver Charm · April 28, 2009, 10:32:18 AM

When will Pletcher get around to shipping this horse out of So. Florida?

Hopefully in time to arrive for the race.

Rick B. · April 28, 2009, 10:40:04 AM

Didn\'t Barclay Tagg ship Funny Cide to Louisville at the last minute?

Why the alarm on Dunkirk, SC? You know something we should know?

ronwar · April 28, 2009, 10:44:03 AM

I believe I read he is arriving today, Tuesday.

Silver Charm · April 28, 2009, 10:46:53 AM

\"I know nothing\"

All of these horses like FF, IWR and POTN in Louisville cranked to the gills and Pletcher has this horse laying in a hammock in Palm Meadows, Florida on a resort vacation.

Has this guy lost his mind, he can\'t possibly be ready to run the race of his life.

Which is what he is gonna need against the above \"Fire Breathers\"........

MonmouthGuy · April 28, 2009, 10:48:19 AM

Connections couldn\'t be happier about how he is coming into the race.

miff · April 28, 2009, 10:59:26 AM

Mon,

Have not heard one \"connection\" not happy with the way their horse was coming into the race. It\'s derby-mania for the connections. Even if I had a slow rat in there I\'d be sky high.

Mike

alm · April 28, 2009, 11:03:58 AM

He may get to Churchill later, but he\'s going to be leaving earlier.

MonmouthGuy · April 28, 2009, 11:08:16 AM

Point well taken.

I am impressed how Dunkirk has been kept under the radar as opposed to other years where Pletcher and his horses have been front and center. Not a lot of hype for a horse that I think is the most likely winner.

Silver Charm · April 28, 2009, 11:13:35 AM

Was it you who said the same thing about QR the day before he was pulled with a bad foot?

miff · April 28, 2009, 11:18:54 AM

Mon,

No doubting his talent/possible upside but in addition to 126 lbs, he carries:

1.TAP 0-24 in the derby.

2.No two year old race, historical disaster

3.Never won a stake, historical disaster

4.A TG pattern I dislike after watching his last race (but many of my TG/Raggie cronies love his pattern on both sets)

Mike

MonmouthGuy · April 28, 2009, 11:24:43 AM

Not me.

I have thought it was 50/50 that QR made it into the gate for the last month based on what I was hearing.

MonmouthGuy · April 28, 2009, 11:28:53 AM

Agree on all counts. He has a lot of history to overcome and a style of racing that invites trouble in a 20 horse field.

That is why I was hoping QR was in so I could potentially see 10/1 on him.

With the QR scratch, he will be an underlay at 5-1 and I\'ll stick with my Pool 3 bet at 11-1 and look for value in exotics.

toppled · April 28, 2009, 02:56:15 PM

Miff,
Here\'s something I wrote to some of my friends that as a Dunkirk supporter is my answer to most of your points:
1)Dunkirk-I\'ve said all along the Florida Derby was the definitive prep race and the Derby winner would emerge from there. Dunkirk is the logical horse to win Derby 135. Those skeptics who question his lack of a 2yo race, lack of a stakes win and the jockey choosing Pioneerof the Nile, which will go down as one of the biggest blunders in Derby history, and the trainer\'s 0 for 24 Derby record, are in for an unpleasant surprise on May 2nd. Let\'s start with the lack of a 2yo race. Big Brown won last year\'s Derby in his 4th career start. This is Dunkirk\'s 4th career start. Did it matter that Big Brown had started in a turf race at Saratoga as a 2yo in August , while Dunkirk started as a 3yo in January at Gulfstream-I say no. Look at Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus-his debut was in December. Can anyone tell me he wouldn\'t have won if he debuted in January instead? Lack of a stakes win-Dunkirk has run in 1 graded stakes, against the only horse who has yet to beat him-the talented Quality Road-who if healthy would have been my top choice. Now make of it what you may, but Dunkirk made a big move into a race on a day when nobody was going to win doing that-Gulfstream had an inside bias that was responsible for the inside horses finding another gear in the stretch. Quality Road rode that bias to victory, but Dunkirk\'s race was huge. On a fairer track Dunkirk would have been closer or have won. If he really wanted a graded win with Dunkirk, all Pletcher had to do was run in either the Illinois or Arkansas Derbies. He would have won either of those races by a pole. I must admit Gomez choosing Pioneerof the Nile over Dunkirk is perplexing. All the speed figures show Dunkirk is a faster horse. Now add the fact that Pioneerof hadn\'t even worked out on a dirt surface since Baffert got him & the decision was insane. I\'m sure his agent weighed Baffert\'s 3 Derby wins vs Pletcher\'s 0 for 24 record in making this wrong decision. Now the Derby record of Todd Pletcher. Pletcher may be 0 for 24, but he can get a horse to run at his peak in the Derby. Twice he has overachieved with horses totally ignored
by the public, finishing 2nd in the Derby. Dunkirk is the most talented horse he\'s ever brought-don\'t look at the 0 for 24 as a negative, Pletcher runs 3 or more horses in most Derbies, and he\'s finished 2nd twice-there is no Derby Jinx on Todd Pletcher, he just hasn\'t brought the best horse,that is until May 2, 2009.

miff · April 28, 2009, 03:32:16 PM

Topp,

None of your points are unreasonable as they apply to pure stats.The other thing that people ignore about the \"no 2yr old race\" is the lack of exercise/training/ which strengthens young horses according to every study on soundness and early development.Foundation not only comes from races but from those 2 minute licks/gallops/jogs on the farm. I know that Dunkirk was doing some training on a farm at two, otherwise he would not have started as early as Jan.24th.

Education is also a factor and Garret Gomez stated that Dunkirk did ok with the kickback in Fl derby and will be even better in the Ky Derby.

Bias data for FL derby day supports a GP surface that favored speed but not as intense a bias as is being portrayed by some,including TAP.Dunkirk had a perfect trip(did lose ground on turn), honest pace and got outrun by a superior tactical horse who took Dunkirk\'s \"best shot\". How he was supposed to beat a healthy QR in the Derby, I don\'t know.

As to Gomez taking POTN, I think when the full story comes out it will be more about money than horseflesh.

No question he is talented enough to win, but logical to win,I don\'t agree.With a poor far outside draw,he\'ll be pressed to hit the board,imo.

Good Luck,

Mike

Silver Charm · April 28, 2009, 04:02:27 PM

Nice debate guys but you have to ask yourself,

\"Why as successful if not moreso Derby Trainers like Baffert and Larry Jones are on the grounds cranking their horses up and Pletcher has stowed his horse away in a tropical resort?\"

Gomez may know something and Pletcher has a dirty little secret he is hiding

I want somebody who is ready to leave the gate tugging and ready to run like an absolute MONSTER!!!