... significantly change the percentages on what sort of number is necessary to win the race?

I mean, with QR & IWR being the two horses with quite the fastest figs, one scratch is a big change!

When both were live, there was a much greater chance the Derby winner was going to run a -2 or -3, yes? If one of those two scratches, doesn\'t that make it that much easier to win this with a \"good trip zero\"? Wouldn\'t that bring some of the slower horses much closer to the top spot, odds-wise?

jimbo66: BB,

Makes solid sense.  Since the \"pattern readers\" think IWR is sitting on bounce, a 0 could win the race.  Quality Road, while in off a regression did have a stronger line than IWR because of the 0 last year and had two negative figures.  The chances of both of them not running their races is certainly less likely than just IWR not running his race.

A \"0\" with the right trip could be enough.

TGJB: Definitely agree.