First Pass at an Odds Line

[jimbo66]

I realize we are still 18 days away and we still don\'t have all the runners identified and the PP draw, workouts, etc.  But, I am usually first on this board every year to post an odds line.  (my own derby fever is hitting).  The following has \"correct math\" for the 16% takeout.

I Want Revenge      4 to 1
Quality Road      9 to 2
Dunkirk               6 to 1
Friesan Fire      8 to 1
Pioneer of the Nile 10 to 1
Chocolate Candy     15 to 1
Desert Party     20 to 1
Hold Me Back     20 to 1
Musket Man     25 to 1
General Quarters     30 to 1
Papa Clem              30 to 1
West Side Bernie     30 to 1
Regal Ransom     30 to 1
Win Willy              40 to 1
Square Eddie     40 to 1
Terrain              40 to 1
Giant Oak              40 to 1
Horse 18              70 to 1
Horse 19              70 to 1
Horse 20              70 to 1

[smalltimer]

I think the winner comes from the 30/1 and above group.

[Wrongly]

Jimbo

Nice effort.  You can now drop Terrain, he\'s out.

news paper

[mlnolan00]

Square Eddie?
I guess Banjo will get to pick between that one and Papa.

[Lost Cause]

mlnolan00 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Square Eddie?
> I guess Banjo will get to pick between that one
> and Papa.


I think Prado has already picked up the mount on Square Eddie

[toppled]

Top ones look about right within a tick.  Square Eddie\'s odds will have a lot to do with how he runs in the Lexington.  He could get all the way up to the 10-15/1 range with an eye opening performance.  The problem is, if they\'re smart they won\'t ask him for too much since he\'s in if they want to enter him regardless of what happens Saturday.

[Dana666]

Interesting, you\'re the only one around here making a line so early! \"A\" for effort.

I don\'t get IWR as the fav. and Pioneer at 10-1? Pioneer will be about 4 or 5-1 and Quality Road way lower than 9-2 - how about 2-1 or even 9-5? you\'ll probably get at least 6 or 7-1 on IWR - remember, Mullins will be scrutinized even more on derby day - no air power or anything else sneaky and Pioneer manhandeled him every time they ever met. That wood was like a nw/2 allowance race though the effort was eye-catching. Young Talamo with 19 other horses is a nightmare waiting to happen! Believe me I watch him ride every day. The scary thing is how cocky he is - direct ratio to how bad a rider he is!

You have no line on my sleeper - Mr. Hot Stuff (talk about nightmare jockeys -- I get C-Nak!)- I was hoping for about 15 or 20-1 which I will take. 70-1?! Are you kidding me?

But if Quality Road runs his race, they can\'t beat him - that\'s a big \"IF\" though. I usually way off on derbies, you should hear the list of \"champions\" I supported - oh, man. I need a 20-1 score to be even for the last 10 years!

[toppled]

No horse in this field will be anywhere near 2/1 or 9/5.  IWR is the probable favorite because of the Wood trip & the Gotham #. Dunkirk might very well be a lower price than Quality Road, especially after the quarter crack.  I would expect at least 5-1 on Quality Road. Just look at the pool 3 future wager, Quality Road was 6-1 before anyone knew about the quarter crack.
For the record, I\'m a big Quality Road guy, but 2-1 is absurd.

[jimbo66]

Dana,

You have to do the math on the takeout.  It really is pretty impossible that somebody in this field will be 9-5 or 2-1.  The favorite, who will be one of I Want Revenge, Quality Road, or Dunkirk, will be no shorter than 7-2, you can book that.

Similarly, Pioneer of the Nile will be no better than the 4th choice, and likely the fifth choice.  The fourth or fifth choice in a 20 horse field, won\'t be 5-1.  

As for Mr. Hot Stuff, I am not up to date on him.  I plugged the math on the last 3 slots and it worked out to 70-1, but the margin of erron on an odds line this early, especially on the longshots, is pretty steep.  But if you were hoping for 15 or 20 to 1, I can guarantee you get that.  Mr. Hot Stuff won\'t be less than 30-1, you can book that too.

[Dana666]

I guess your line is more like a real odds board, mine would be more like the way I\'d rate them based on performance; I was just looking at last year\'s chart. Big Brown went off 2.40-1 and that field was a lot weaker (and he was far superior) than QR is to this year\'s! This is a pretty strong crop from first glance, so you may be right! 5-1 on QR -- that makes it hard b/c I thought he\'d be a lot lower; he\'s much more attractive at that price. I still don\'t think Harty\'s horse goes off that long. I\'m thinking 15-1. Anyway I haven\'t cashed on a derby since Silver Charm, so take my thoughts w/a grain of salt as my dad used to say!

[Ace]

I\'m glad to hear someone else likes Mr Hot Stuff

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,49624,49624#msg-49624

My buddy George got him at 225-1 at the Wynn.  I wasn\'t able to get to Vegas until several weeks later, they only gave me 75-1.  Let\'s hope he makes the field.  It\'s a longshot but they are dropping left and right above him.

[Uncle Buck]

If I were to bet this board tonight, It would be a six horse tri and super box with Musket Man, IWR, Fresian, Pioneer, C Candy, Gen Quarters, and Pop Clem. I would bet $200 across on Musket Man, and key him in super\'s and tri\'s. I like Musket Man at 25-1. Tossing Dunkirk and Quality Road. Too many questions on them both at that low price. Of course this is all hypothetical as at least one of my six must-use horses will most likely be stricken down by the great Derby Gods prior to loading into the gate.