Ilinois Derby

[MO]

This is a very interesting race. Lots of talk about inside speed bias, War Emblem as the lone speed, blah, blah blah.
I think very few of the connections in this race even have a clue. Look at the musical jockeys. Sterling off Secret Command to ride War Emblem? Jaurez off War Emblem to ride Fonz\'s? Chavez off and Walls back on Changein the weather who must carry equal weight with Repent? Blinkers on Peekskill?
Now look at those with a clue. One Tuff Fox off a month rest, 2 monster works at Sportsmans, gets 10 pounds from Repent, the rail and a very hot Eddie Martin for a very good trainer in R Dutrow. Horse also drops 5 lbs off a very impressive FG win. Repent, who will win the Kentucky Derby, is the only other horse with a shot to win here. Post 10 sucks, but he is better than these, has Bailey and won\'t be worse than 2nd. Box Repent and One Tuff Fox. Bet OTF to win at 5-1 or higher. Safe trip.
Mark

[nunzio]

Mark,

Repent will win the Derby ?  I just don\'t see it.  If you held my feet to the fire, I\'d
pick the FL Derby winner Harlans Holiday, but I will reserve judgement for another month.

Nunzio

PS  I like Fonz\'s & War Emblem at SPT.

[MO]

No secret I\'ve been a Repent backer for some time now. Hasn\'t taken a backward step yet. HH has run faster, but I think HH has run too fast now while Repent has room to run faster. Its entirely possible that Repent runs a 2 today and a 1 or a 0 in the Ky Derby. He loves CD. Has Bailey. Hopefully, he\'ll have no respect on May 4.
Regarding War Emblem, aren\'t you concerned about a forthcoming bounce?
Fonz\'s is certainly fast enough to fit here, but why didn\'t Solis come for the ride? He\'s not riding anything special at SA unless you think Lukas can win the SA Derby. Just a thought.
Mark

[nunzio]

Mark,

Didn\'t catch the jock switch on Fonz\'s, great call, I would have probably dutched the two of them besides the exacta box.
Given the price on War Emblem over Fonz,
I just bet WE.  I didn\'t think he\'d regress,
we won effortlessly last time.

Thanks again for that jock call, I totally missed it.

Nunzio

[MO]

Congrats. I guess you weren\'t worried about a bounce. Since Dutrow scratched, I used Repent on top of the 75-1 shot that ran 4th. Had Repent won, I\'d have cashed the superfecta.
Repent did not chase me off him for Kentucky, though. He was slow to change leads but the post and the lone speed worked against him today. There won\'t be any loose horses at CD. Price will be OK now that he got beat at a minor track.
Mark

[fastspeed]

Mark,

yes, but \"price will be OK\" is not necessarily what you want to be saying about your horse after his last derby prep.  I know you\'ve been touting him for a while and he has many good credentials (his pattern was great, CD form, dual qualifier, right running style, solid/classy foundation at 2...) but you have to admit that, even after changing leads, he didn\'t close like a prospective derby winner should.  Is he totally off my list ? probably not at 12/1-14/1  or so, but it wouldn\'t take much from someone next week-end to relegate repent to hopeful at best (though he his ahead of came home for me right now).

[MO]

IMHO, I think that that all things considered, 10 pound weight difference, ground saving trip for War Emblem, wide trip for Repent, speed favoring track; Repent\'s figure might be a lot closer to War Emblem\'s for that race. He did have 4 1/2 on the third (fastest)horse at the wire and he was coming in off paired 3\'s with no work over the track. I think his race was better than it looked. Now he goes back to his favorite track and gets 4 weeks rest. Came home actually surprised me and I now give him more respect.
Mark

[rail]

War Emblem clearly benefitted from his uncontested lead; I\'ve seen old ladies with walkers go faster.

Repent continues to unimpress me. He lost ground in the stretch. IT IS possible to close there. Those behind the pacesetter do not hit a brick wall when they round the turn. His inherent problems of running wide and not changing leads on cue are just annoying at this point.

Bailey over D\'Amico; HA!
And the difference is?
Oh that\'s right, we get sweeter odds on the opposition.

I hope this doesn\'t turn into another Tejano Run campaign!

I think it is a shame Take Charge Lady has not been given the opportunity to try 9 furlongs.

The final time of the SA Derby gave me no reason to respect Came Home in the KD.

Bring on The WOOD!

[fastspeed]

I totally forgot about the 10 pounds - I guess you\'re right, they probably ran a similar number.  If he moved forward from the 3, he would still be dangerous.  Still, apart from that move on the turn (good sign as you need that at CD) he could have been more impressive visually in the stretch.  Have to respect Came Home purely on class and guts, but for me he showed he\'s going to pull himself near the front in the derby - he doesn\'t scare me for the win, though could hang on for 3rd or so.  very interested in saarland this week-end - is he the stretch plodder he looked at times last year, or was that first run a sign he\'s got an earlier move in him.  would love to see him move up a little to a winning number.

[kev]

Didnt Repent have a bo/bi in one of his past few races? It looked like me as if he was trying to do it again, and thats not a good sign. Not saying he wont run  well in the Derby but he might not be around for much longer.

[rail]

I do think he is in danger of being overrun.  It might be wise to give him some time off until late summer.

He obviously has ability so it would be a waste to ruin him now.

[MO]

At least he\'s not running zeros yet, so maybe he\'ll be aound till Breeders Cup if they give him a break after Triple Crown.

[MO]

Saarland is also interesting.

[rail]

Saarland looks the best. Repent is out. I guess he\'ll get that rest now; too bad it had to happen this way.

[rail]

An interesting tidbit on Take Charge Lady:

\"It\'s tempting to run her in the Kentucky Derby because she\'s that good,\" McPeek said. \"I firmly believe she could win the race. But it\'s probably a smarter move to run her in the Kentucky Oaks.\"

Let\'s see if he has to eat his words in the Derby. As said before, she should have been given the opportunity at 9 furlongs.