Trainers in the Derby

[big18741]

Found this exercise somewhat useful last year in regard to the Asmussen horses.

BAFFERT 16 horses

Tops-3
Pair-3  
Off -3
  X -7

Tops- Silver Charm-almost 3 points off a pair.
      Cavonnier 2 points off a pair.
      War Emblem 1.5 points off a barn change.


MOTT  5 Horses

Tops-0
Pair-0
Off -1
  X -4


PLETCHER 20 horses

Tops-1
Pair-6
Off -2
  X -11

Sam P was an insignificant 3 pt top off a slow pair.

Circular Quay and Any Given Saturday were pair up horses compromised by wide draw or trips.BG Cat and Inv Ink ran back to their tops.

Thought this one was interesting:

Bin Suroor/Godolphin  5 horses

Tops-3
Pair-1
Off -0
  X -1

Express Tour was the X horse off a 3 point top in the UAE Derby his only prep.The others were too slow going in to factor.

His two this year have each run three times and are acclimating at Churchill.Maybe not automatic tosses this time for the under stuff if they train and draw well.

[Silver Charm]

Both Baffert and Pletcher are in the 45%-55% range on X\'es and about equal on the Off-X combined category.

There are a lot of X\'es in the Derby because of the field size and some horses are used up winning Big Preps and Purses.

Baffert 37.5% Tops and Pairs Pletcher 35%.

Baffert has 3 Derby winners and Pletcher none.

Mott will not be running that horse in the Derby. You heard it here first..