Quality Road has quarter crack

[toppled]

I thought 14-1 was good for QR in pool 2 because I figured he\'d win the Florida Derby and be much lower.  I wouldn\'t bet him in pool 3.  I thought the overlay in pool 3 was Dunkirk because of the doubts about the graded earnings.  He should get in because I can\'t see 20 horses who will run in the Derby getting in ahead of him.  Unfortunately, I knew nothing of the quarter crack & tried to get the overlay on Dunkirk & went exacta box with QR instead of 12-1 on Dunkirk.  I think Dunkirk will be half that in Louisville.  
I like your thinking on Charitable Man, I think (pre-sheet look) he has a great shot at the Bluegrass.  He already holds a win against Louisiana\'s darling Friesan Fire, albeit at 7f.

[Silver Charm]

Ritchie, take a pill my friend.

My spelling is pretty good its my typing. Nonetheless because I typed the guys name wrong I\'m not gonna take back all of the nice things I said about him. Because it was all the truth.  

Funkirk has one thing going for him. He is staying down here until the very last minute. This will help him get more relaxed and settled which is an issue and keep him under the radar a little. No fast local works for him like Colonel John or Ten Most Wanted and then see him bet in half of what he should be.

Pletcher knows this might be the best horse he has ever led over there. But its gonna take a big effort becasue this is a strong year. maybe 87 like. Only time will tell there.

Admit it Ritchie, you read it, liked it and wished you had written it yourself.......

[colt]

\"My spelling is pretty good its my typing\"...this is better than \"the dog ate my homework\"....

[toppled]

\" I was going to bet that horse, but the dog ate my sheets\"

[richiebee]

Silver:

The only thing I am envious about is that you seem to have formed an opinion of
this Derby. Other than rooting for Jimbo I really make this quite wide open and
really have no opinion as of yet.

You mention Servis and Tricky and Tagg and Ritchie (and dont you have to include
Matz?) as trainers who have gotten the job done without having much Derby
experience. Now you added Jimmy Jerk ns to that list.

OK lets see: Smarty, Big Brown, Funny Cide, Afleet Alex and Barbaro. And now
Quality Road.

Of the 6, which runner was NOT an early nominee to the Triple Crown?

That\'s serious Derby aversion.

Look there are trainers like Frankel and Mott and H. Allen Jerk ns who are
absolute greats who have had no success in the Derby. Pletch is still waiting
to pop the cork, but don\'t think he will do it with the lightly raced colt
named after a famous retreat/evacuation.

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

our bet is on I Want Revenge getting there, not Quality Road.  The guy who bet in pool 2, whose message you replied to, got 14-1, not 6-1, on Quality Road.    

Not to be contrarian, but I think 40-1 on Charitable Man and 40-1 on Regal Ransom are pretty awful.  What are Charitable Man\'s chances of running in the top 2 or so in the Blue Grass?   Maybe 1 in 3?  He probably needs to do that to encourage the connections to try the Derby.  IF he does that, do you really believe he will be 13-1 in the Derby?  Nope.  Not even close.  I bet if he runs, he goes off 40-1.  The fact that Regal Ransom will be part of an entry is kind of irrelevant.  What are his chances of winning?  Chances of running?  Sounds like he is 50/50 to run in the derby, as the connections feel they may run in the preakness instead.  Do you think he would be less than 20-1 if he was NOT an entry?  No way.

Not surprised to hear you took Old Fashioned.  As I said before you posted this, I sensed he could be your 2009 version of High Limit.  Fast 2 year old,  Always looking like he could step forward and develop off the 2 year old top, but never quite does.  We\'ll see on Saturday.

[richiebee]

Jimbo--

Pretty sure there are absolutely no couplings  in the Derby...

[jimbo66]

Richie,

I thought so too, but look at JB\'s post.  He is the one who is saying there will be a coupling.  I am not sure.

This is going to be an interesting derby.  Lots of angles.  Lots of value.  No strong favorite.  3 + weeks to go!!!

[BB]

Silver, it ain\'t your typing, it\'s your brain.

On the keyboard the \"I\" is Cleveland and the \"E\" is Salt Lake City. A typo is hitting the \"W\" instead of the \"E\", not the \"I\".

My quack diagnosis is that, since it sounds sort of like Perkins, you are misspelling it that way. It\'s a sign of something, but I cut class that day so I can\'t say what it is.

[TreadHead]

I remember the exact same thing (no coupling anymore) but can\'t find the right search string in google to locate proof.  Definitely in the Breeder\'s Cup rules that all horses run as separate wagering interests.  99% positive the Derby implemented similar rule a few years back.

[big18741]

No Derby couplings for at least five years.

It paid in the Grindstone year if you liked Editors Note.

Charitable Man can run.Don\'t have the #\'s in front of me,but other than QR and Old Fashioned was there a faster two year old in this Derby bunch? Paired 3\'s  in August/Sept sprinting for a son of LDK wanting more ground.Not bad.

[ronwar]

\"Silver Crumb\" - LOL

Richie, this derby talk must have you thinking about Chuckles

[Silver Charm]

If I\'m the new \"Chuckles the Clown\" I serve with HONOR.

You guys don\'t get it. I like Dunkirk but things are fluid in the spring and go on a case-by-case basis as races come and go.

You have to love the irony of Alysheba passing away and then we see what we saw with IWR in the Wood. Also IWR is the perfect horse to have as a part-owner IEAH aka SPECTRE.

Baffy is back with a horse sitting on a 4 Point Synthetic-to-Dirt Top.

Larry Jones is back with TWO and the only thing worse than getting run down with a four length lead turning for home like two years ago is what happened last year.You gotta be pulling for him.

We shall see this week what else happens. Dunkirk is light on racing, light on top side stamina pedigree and Super Wide every race. Quality Road has a bloody Quarter Crack and a trainer who needs a Google Map of how to get to CD and then the Triple Crown Trail.

Let\'s make it easy on everybody and have Rachel Alexander declare for the Derby......

[miff]

Wednesday QR galloped under the eyes of some sharp horsemen,who said he looked fine.If he wears a bar or aluminum pad on the derby day,he\'s a toss for me.24 days out is a very long time.  

BLOODHORSE:
"His foot was absolutely ice-cold this morning and I actually patched him today and put a drain in him,\" McKinlay said. \"That thing looked perfect. He went to the track, galloped, came back and looked great. The drain leaves a tunnel right over top of where the crack is and where he bled the other day. So, if there was going to be any blood it would have a channel out. He galloped perfect and there was no blood when he came back. If the foot is cold tomorrow, it's a done deal; it's behind us. I asked Jimmy (trainer Jerkens) what his schedule was and he sounded like he's ready to go. It looks like I got an easy one."

[TGJB]

Jimbo--

1-- I know the bet is on IWR. We also discussed QR in an earlier string, I mentioned that Jerkens did not get extended campaigns, was very good off layoffs and second off.

2-- I\'m assuming that common ownership means they get coupled, maybe not.

3-- First I\'m hearing of RR not running in the Derby. That would make a bit of a difference. I was assuming that he was definitely running (earnings and no more preps), and would be coupled. If he does go and is not coupled he will probably still be a little shorter than 40-1, but not enough to make the future bet worthwhile. If he does go I\'ll be talking about him quite a bit in the seminar-- very interesting horse.

4-- 14-1 on QR off the neg 3 is a much better idea than 6-1 after the next race, but 14-1 with a prep to go is still a little shaky.

5-- I have no idea how Charitable Man will handle synthetic Saturday, but I have an awful lot of respect for Kiaran. If he wins or runs a strong second he will be viewed as the now horse with Watchmaker and everyone else playing him to go forward second off a layoff, and will go off maybe 10-1, given his 2yo form (less if he wins, he\'ll be undefeated). And he probably has enough earnings to get in if he doesn\'t handle the synth and they want to run-- and either way he will be going synth to dirt.

6-- I\'m pretty much neutral-plus on Old Fashioned at this point (neutral on pattern pending his next, plus because he\'s fast and has tactical speed) but I\'m negative on the favorites for various reasons (would not have been on QR if the quarter crack thing hadn\'t happened, and if he does put in two strong works and looks okay at CD I\'ll be neutral on him at the price). What I\'m trying to do is to position myself going into betting the race that day.