? for TG - analysis comments

[shanahan]

what do you mean by the phrase \"doesn\'t have to run well\"?  Yesterday, the comment on Orange Street at Oaklawn says he \"doesn\'t have to run well\"...I have no idea what that might mean.  Help me understand where you are going with that.  I could understand it if it was a race where a horse is prepping for somehting else, but in this instance, that is highly doubtful.

[gregoryj]

The idea was the horse ran a 5 third back which was a big top, bounced to a 17, a vet scratch Dec. 28 and then won last start with a 12.  She was 2-1 morning line and I thought she\'d be even shorter.  My thought was at a short price was that she didn\'t have to run well at all and might run a complete X. I was clearly as wrong as I could be but with her at even money you look for some big prices.  If she was moving up to a 10 claimer and needed a 7 range to win and was 10-1 I would play her even though my opinion of her running well would be the same.  This figure figures to be pretty big, a definite bet against next start.   TGGJ

[shanahan]

Thanks for the feedback but I still don\'t quite get it.  \"At a short price she didn\'t have to run well\"...to do what?  Initially I would read it as \"she doesn\'t need to run well to win\"...

gregoryj Wrote:
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> The idea was the horse ran a 5 third back which
> was a big top, bounced to a 17, a vet scratch Dec.
> 28 and then won last start with a 12.  She was 2-1
> morning line and I thought she\'d be even shorter.
> My thought was at a short price was that she
> didn\'t have to run well at all and might run a
> complete X. I was clearly as wrong as I could be
> but with her at even money you look for some big
> prices.  If she was moving up to a 10 claimer and
> needed a 7 range to win and was 10-1 I would play
> her even though my opinion of her running well
> would be the same.  This figure figures to be
> pretty big, a definite bet against next start.  
> TGGJ

[TGJB]

What Greg is trying to say is there is the horse\'s pattern indicates there is a good chance he won\'t run his race, and that makes him a play against at a short price.