Thanks TG for offering the sheets for the Derby futures pool again

covelj70 · February 12, 2009, 05:06:59 AM

Its scary how much Pioneer of the Nile reminds me of Colonel John. Looks like POTN will head to the derby with the same kind of figures and patterns that the Colonel did and also without any dirt experience. It didn\'t work for the Colonel in the Derby so unless something changes, POTN isn\'t getting any of my money this year. Fool me once....

This Mr. Fantasy is kind of freaky. Fires two huge numbers in his first two starts with really no bounce in his second race despite the huge effort first time and not that much time off in between. Don\'t know about the running style and the breeding to win the derby but I wish I could trade some futures here because my guess is that he will be all the rage after he wins the Gotham given that Haynesfield is considerably slower than Mr. Fantasy.

Wrongly · February 12, 2009, 06:08:55 AM

Have you seen this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdMz-VoGh04

I'm not surprised that Finely has got the hype machine cranking but rather surprised other connections aren't making better use of the new media.

miff · February 12, 2009, 06:30:42 AM

Mr Fantasy very fast but never hooked, never beat anything resembling a runner. A sucker horse until he gets into a real fight and wins. They all look good beating up on the sisters of the poor. The water gets lots deeper in March and April.

Westpoint runners are overbet every time they load in NY, nice PR machine.

Mike

covelj70 · February 12, 2009, 05:32:39 PM

Betting against West Point horses is arguably one of the best betting angles in the game.

Nearly everyone one of their horses goes off at low odds and they win at about the same 20% clip as other top outfits so it\'s a good value to play against.

Totally agree that Mr. Fantasy needs to be tested, etc, but unless we see a bunch ship up to NY for the Gotham, I don\'t think he will find his test in that one.

love this time of year.

SoCalMan2 · February 13, 2009, 04:38:35 AM

....there were some horses I was hoping to see in the derby future set that I would say are missing (unless they have fallen off the trail and it is me who is missing something). The two I was hoping to see and could not find were -- Munnings and Charitable Man. I suspect Munnings is in the BC archive for the juvenile last year, but I do not think there is anyway to find Charitable Man\'s sheet. Was he slow?

big18741 · February 13, 2009, 04:42:46 AM

Nice looking sheet for Capt Candy Man so far.

Can they get him to rate and stalk stretching out to 9 and 10 f\'s with his pedigree?

big18741 · February 13, 2009, 04:46:03 AM

Wider and a length up on Flying Pegasus in the Futurity but I was curious about his debut race.

Saratoga Sinner is off the trail-maybe we get Charitable Man\'s #\'s instead?

SoCalMan2 · February 13, 2009, 07:27:20 AM

Checked Munnings sheet in the archives -- very interesting -- two off poorly 5.75s at Saratoga following by a 2.25 in the Champagne. The juvenile was a bad bounce, but since it was on turf, who cares. Off the first three figs, he looks like he could be any kind....especially that early in the two year old year. Only issue to me is that he looks like he might be a sprinter only.

miff · February 13, 2009, 07:34:16 AM

Although it\'s only one race, Sheik Mo\'s 12 million for Vineyard Haven(ran awful yesterday in Dubai) looks right now to be one of the great rip offs pulled by Frankel.Nickle bred may have already stepped on his breeding.

Mike

MonmouthGuy · February 13, 2009, 08:02:32 AM

Has any 2YO purchased after a graded stakes win Stateside that\'s been shipped to Dubai ever come back to make an impact in a US 3YO campaign?

covelj70 · February 13, 2009, 12:44:30 PM

Kirian\'s barn isn\'t pointing/pushing Charitable Man for the Derby. He just had his first breeze today and he needs a good 6 or 7 breezes at least before he\'s ready for a race which means he won\'t even run in a single race before mid-APril.

He could theortically be ready for the Belmont though which would be interesting given the breeding there.

In the barn\'s words, \"he\'s too good of a horse to ruin by pushing him to be ready for one race\"

TGAB · February 13, 2009, 01:00:25 PM

Both Charitable Man and Munnings have been added to the KD Pool 1 file. If you\'ve already downloaded, do so again, to get the TG sheets for these two. You will not be recharged.

Suggestions are welcome for the next two pools. Let\'s make them before we put the file up. Frankly, it\'s easier.

Wrongly · February 13, 2009, 03:32:51 PM

Charitable Man was working at Ocala for weeks before shipping to Palm Meadows.

covelj70 · February 13, 2009, 03:38:39 PM

All I can tell you is what Kirian\'s assistant told me, \"he\'s not on the Derby trail\" He could certainly be giving me wrong info but that\'s what he said.

Michael D. · February 16, 2009, 07:44:14 AM

I took a small stab at Taqarub (46-1). 300g is a lot to pay for an Aldebaran yearling, and he\'s bred to go long on bottom.

It\'s probably 46-1 or higher that he even runs in the Derby, but it\'s all about having fun, isn\'t it?