Breaking through tops

[Student of the game]

Mr. Brown:
Since it is the time of year when we will see 3-year-olds break through their 2-year-old tops, I would be interested to know what you consider the ideal pattern(s) for such horses in terms of a next-out bet.

If a horse with a good overall line makes a small move to surpass his 2-year-old top of, say, 12, and then returns to race after about a month off, how many points of improvement would you project?

In the cases of horses that break through their 2-year-old tops in their first or 2nd starts at 3, then go backward, what do you consider acceptable and unacceptable patterns for the intervening race? Using the above example, what if the horse with a 2-year-old top of 12 runs an 11 1/2, comes back on reasonable rest, then goes backward? Does it make a big difference to you if the intervening race is a 13 or 17 in terms of betting the horse the next time?

I would greatly appreciate your sharing any concepts that apply to these situations that we will be seeing in the upcoming months. Finally, I\'m sure you have a lot on your plate, but is there any chance of either a book or an extremely detailed, example-filled workbook/user\'s manual on Thoro-Graph patterns and concepts? (Your introductory materials are nicely done, but I\'m getting greedy . . . and it would be helpful to see an advanced version of some of the theories.)

Thanks for your time and high-quality product.

[Silver Charm]

I can\'t resist adding my two cents which may be all of what I\'m about to say is worth.

Over the last couple of years at Gulfstream it seems that with 3-YO the bounce angle has been more of a bust angle. As in you will go busted expecting a good three old to bounce. There was a catch there because I said good 3-YO. Something not entirely obvious when the meet begins.

Let me give you an example from two years ago. A horse with only one previous start (strictly a gallop him around job with Patti Cooksey aboard--trust me that true) runs third in a November maiden race at CD and receives a 13. In January, this same horse comes back at Gulfstream in a seven furlong maiden race and romps by six lengths and receives a 7. He is now wheeled back on two weeks rest in a very tough 1X allowance race going 1 mile 1/16. He should bounce correct? He does\'nt he runs a 3. He then is run back on three weeks rest in a Grade I. Should he be played to bounce?

Next example, a horse with about ten races under his belt and a previous lifetime top of a 9 is entered in a 1X and receives a 1 after winning by ten lengths. He runs back in a $500,000.00 Stake and wins again receiving another 1. He is run back on four weeks rest in a Grade I. Should he be played to bounce?

The answer in both examples is NO.
Example one is Monarchos and he came back to win the Florida Derby with a 0.
Example two is War Emblem and he came back to win the Ky Derby with a 0.

[TGJB]

I\'ll get to this when I can.

[Friendly]

I remember loving Monarchos in those races - you must be using flawed numbers.

[Silver Charm]

Actually I bet Monarchos all the up until the Derby and then got off of him because after the Wood he looked like a tired horse.

The numbers I used told me he was the fastest horse in each of the preceeding races and I knew those numbers were accurate and reliable.

Can you say \"Touch of the Blues\", Jerry Jr.

[Friendly]

Sorry to hear that Silver Charm. Maybe it\'s just me, but I actually prefer my Derby horse to lose his last prep (Thunder Gulch also comes to mind) as it can makes for a great score.


Jerry, JR.

[HP]

Jerry Jr. do you mean the Thunder Gulch that was selected by Thoro-Graph/Jerry Sr. in the Racing Form before the Derby as part of a three horse trifecta box that paid $2,000? The same horse that Friedman didn\'t come anywhere near keying in his article that appeared on the same page? That Thunder Gulch? And that was a THREE horse box JJ, not eight horses \"used lightly in the exotics.\" It\'s public record, in print, and anyone can look it up. Glad you had it. Heh. And what\'s with \"can makes for a great score.\" Who are you, Popeye?

Nice of you to call attention to one of Jerry Sr.\'s best published calls. With enemies like you, who needs friends?

How\'s Charlie by the way? As per your last post on this subject, I think the only way you\'d get him to pick up a check would be to staple it to his hand. HP

[Silver Charm]

Obviously you did\'nt have Charismatic and War Emblem, two of the biggest bombs in Derby history, seeing as how both of those horses came into the Derby off wins.

Interesting that you mention Thunder Gulch because not only was that winner one of TGJB\'s greatest calls (better than Volponi), but he also gave out the triple. You remember Timber Country, and the Kenny McPeek trainee, Jerry Bailey ridden horse whose name slips my mind right now. Anyway that triple paid a $2500 and it was a cold three horse box TGJB gave out.

Also in case your were wondering where the name Silver Charm came from, well all I will say is that I made out pretty good on that years Derby. One last thing, he lost his Derby prep but did\'nt give me impression he was a tired horse and validated that with his Preakness win (at another nice price) and had a very good four year old campaign. As far as Monarchos goes, he never won another race after that Derby.

As you can see handicapping the Derby three year olds can be rather esoteric but at the same time quite rewarding.

[Silver Charm]

HP,

You beat me to it!! I swear to God I was typing my previous post and got called into a meeting half-way through it then came back and finished.

Kudo\'s to you however for giving them a \"Touch of the Blues\".

[HP]

Hiyo Silver,

I agreed a thousand percent with your read on Monarchos and that was an EXTREMELY painful race for me as I keyed Invisible Ink.

None of this will have any impact on JJr., but I had an idle moment.

Good luck at the windows. HP

[Friendly]

Wow, the lackeys comes out likes piranha! Pass me the spinach. I never mentioned Poppa, but I guess you live for the guy, right? What a couple of wackos you are.

Silver Charm was another horse I loved in the Derby. Yes, you are right that I didn\'t have War Emblem or Charismatic. I suppose you had them all? LOL! I thought Charismatic looked like crap coming into the Derby. Guess I\'ll have to be satisfied with having a couple of $50 horses in recent years.

HP, Charlie to me he hopes you get some help. Your obsession with him is not healthy. I\'m having dinner with him tonight and I\'ll be sure to say hello.

[Friendly]

HP, Charlie to-L-D me (before I get take to school again). Sorry, I just type so darn fast.

[Friendly]

I\'m killing myself here...take-N

[TGJB]

Popeye, in a weird kind of way I\'m developing some respect for you. You have lost every single fight (and there have been lots of them) to every single person you have gone to the mat with on every single subject over the last year or so, and you keep coming back for more. Can\'t figure out whether it\'s tenaciousness, willingness to keep going until you finally win one, or just unawareness of the savage beating you have been taking.

Say hello to Charlie (RAGOZIN EMPLOYEE) Nebel for me-- I\'m a big fan of his. Tell him he sounded great on that tape telling a prospective customer (our private eye) that we don\'t use observers to keep track of ground loss.

Jake called me a little while ago, and he was telling me what a great job you were doing promoting Ragozin\'s cause. He especially liked that you brought up, 2 months after the BC, that we picked Starine, and said she was a bet at 15-1 or more, but that she only paid $28. He said he didn\'t think I could stand much more bad publicity like that.

[Silver Charm]

I don\'t mean to pile on (yeah right), but as far as Charismatic looking like crap it must be those flawed numbers again. On Thorograph he was given a 3 in his win in the Lexington Stakes which made him the CO-FASTEST horse in the Derby.