Different point of view on the pro ride

[covelj70]

I am not going to get into the debate about whether or not we should be running our championships over the pro ride because no one is going to convince anyone else whether this is right or wrong so I think it\'s a waste of time and energy to debate this subject.

What I will say is that I actually found it very easy by the end of the weekend to pick winners over the stuff.  You can eliminate any horse in the field who doesn\'t have that explosive move because that\'s what the track favors, there is a clear bias toward explosive closers and I think a bias that one can pick up over the weekend is a huge advatage to those who are on the lookout for such a thing (remember the live rail on Breeders Cup Day at Churchill a few years back, this was no different).  I sat at the top of the stretch in Clockers Corner both Friday and Saturday and had a great vantage point of every big move by the winner in each race.  After it happened twice right in front of my eyes on Friday, I knew how to handicap the rest of the weekend.

It\'s very very clear that horses need a big turn of foot to win on the pro ride.  The high cruising speed horses don\'t run their races over the pro ride.  They can run well but not their best.  The horses that run their best are the ones that have a huge turn of foot. Importantly, horses who have been running on dirt that have that explosive turn of foot can indeed translate their performance over to the poly (see Midnight Lute) so I don\'t thnk its fair to say that Curlin having to run on the pro ride somehow invalidated the results.  Different tracks reward different horses for different things.  This isn\'t an issue specific to pro ride.  Street Sense\'s two best lifetime races were at Churchill where his amazing ability to handle the turns in tight is handsomely rewarded. At other tracks where that isn\'t such an advatage, he was great but not brilliant like he was at CD.

Pro Ride rewards horses that have that explosion just like East Coast dirt tracks generally reward the horses that have a high cruising speed and who are near the lead early.  I don\'t see why one is any more or less fair than the other as the late closers who have the big turn of foot on the dirt on the east coast are at a disadvantage just as the high cruising speed horses are at a disadvantage over the pro ride.  Why is one bias anymore fair than the other?

The Indian Blessing\'s, Curlin\'s, Ginerger Punch\'s, Hysterical Lady\'s, etc of the world who are very talented due to high cruising speeds have a big advantage on the east coast dirt where its generally harder to close and they are at a big disadvantage on the pro ride where the closing kick is rewarded.

Two final thoughts:

1) if we start to change our breeding behavior due to the synthetics, then I think that\'s all we need to know in order to believe that the move to synthetics is a good thing.  I couldn\'t agree more with the earlier post that this weekend was the culmination of years of poor breeding decisions where we breed for speed (even going a route of ground) instead of stamina and explosiveness.  We got what we deserved this weekend and will continue to do so until we change our breeding practices.  I breed some of my own horses and aim trying to practice what I preach here by avoiding the unsound sprinter types. They should be prevented from going to the stallion barn.

2) for whatever it\'s worth, I thought the SA track folks did a WONDERFUL job this weekend.  There were no lines, they didn\'t run out of anything, they brought in tellers from all over the place that knew what they were doing (I bet with 2 guys they imported from Churchill Downs all weekend who were terrific).  This isn\'t to be taken for granted as I have been to all of the breeders cups for the last 7 years and too often, the tellers have no clue, they run out of food or the lines are ridiculous, even at the bigger tracks like Belmont.  They deserve some kudos in all of this.

Just my two sense on all of this, I understand others will have different opinions.

[TGJB]

Jim--

1-- Street Sense ran his top at other tracks than CD Pim, Sar, even the poly at TP).

2-- Midnight Lute ran a top on poly as a 3yo.

More comments after I do the days. What you say about running styles might be true of BOTH Pro-Ride and turf vs. dirt.

[covelj70]

JB, thanks for the comments.

I thought that Street Sense had the 2 negative in the Juv at CD and then again in the Derby but not in between or in the Preakness, I never remember him topping that number but I apologize for the error.  Pimlico rewards ability to handle the turns as well so maybe some of that applies there as well?

I think to some extent the pro ride and the turf play the same but I think we will see more instances of a high crusing speed horse going wire to wire on the turf than on the pro ride (although it can be done as Midshipman showed).  Time will tell.

I hope it still matters in this market but the Midshipman win couldn\'t have hurt Pinata\'s chances next week.

[shanahan]

Cove, I heard similar things about how great SA handled the weekend...may take the trip next year...haven\'t got over the Lone Star shutouts/power outages/long lines...AP was a great host as well.

[TGJB]

Pinata being in foal to Unbridled\'s Song (who is having an unbelievable year) might offset what\'s going to happen at the November sale-- it\'s going to be a bloodbath for everything not near the top of the market. A lot of commercial breeders work on credit to pay stud fees and buy mares, it\'s going to be bad.

[covelj70]

Couldn\'t agree more about Lone Star.  The horrific experience at Lone Star was at the top of my mind when I was talking about the nightmare experiences of past years.  

They ran out of water on a 105 degree day and the tellers had no clue which was a problem because the machines they brought in melted down so you had to go to a teller.

Totally different situation at SA this year, absolutely first class all the way.  

Can\'t wait for next year there again.  Already made my hotel reservations.

[sighthound]

I don\'t see why one  [track bias]  is any more or less fair than the other as the late closers who have the big turn of foot on the dirt on the east coast are at a disadvantage just as the high cruising speed horses are at a disadvantage over the pro ride. Why is one bias anymore fair than the other?

Thank you.  Finally, the voice of reason, succinctly stated.  

Experienced handicappers used to pride themselves on knowing the idiosyncrasies of the various dirt (and turf) tracks, how those tracks responded to weather changes, how shippers from certain locations translated their form to that track, etc.  

Why some simply refuse to acknowledge this applies to any new track surface is beyond my understanding.  Nobody I know ever directly translated Gulfstream or Monmouth dirt form to old Keeneland dirt to Churchill to Belmont, without acknowledging the individuality of those particular track surfaces and the type of running style and exceptional horse each favored.

I\'m sure handicappers would do this exercise willingly if Churchill, for example, took up it\'s dirt track, re-did the base, then laid a completely revamped new dirt surface back down.  

How would handicappers respond if all the tracks in America got rid of running horses on a dirt surface and returned to all turf racing?  I doubt anybody would quit gambling.

Think of this - TG\'s, Beyers, etc. are readily available to everyone for some time now.  Not many \"edges\" left for the serious handicapper versus the masses.

A new surface here and there is just the small amount of new chaos needed to keep gambling a potentially positive cash-flow generating enterprise.

[sighthound]

I agree.  We were considering getting some pinhook weanlings at these more bargain prices, but if you don\'t have the best of the best bloodlines and conformation, it\'s too big a risk to aim for a middle market that appears to have virtually disappeared.

The TB market has needed a serious correction (like the Dow) for some time now, but it\'s going to hurt alot of good people.

[Uncle Buck]

We watched 14 world championship races over two days and not one \"horse ambulance\" rolled out to collect a fallen equine athlete. There were no long faces or horrific scenes. No offense to him, but I got real sick of seeing that Dr Bramlage guy every time racing is featured on national television. And I made a boat load of money this weekend to boot! Win/Win in my book. I\'m going next year for sure

[Silver Charm]

Buck you did well but the numbers below are a bloodbath for the people who put on the event. This was in the Crist Blog and no matter how you slice it these are ugly. The Monmouth year (2007) was run in pig slop so it can excused.

What about this year. Perfect weather. Great setting in Calif where they love racing and usually wager heavily. No other real major events opposite. WS was at night, average college football weekend.  

This is like switching to Classic Coke. Everything was working so good we decide to screw it all up. The people have spoken and the word is they do not like it, or trust it, or understand it. Whatever it is it will kill one damn good sporting event before it ever gets to another venue......  


Year Was Run 2008   2007 2006
GRAND TOTAL $102,611,917 $112,338,196 $136,092,453

[Uncle Buck]

SC - Those numbers are terribly bleak agreed. I hadn\'t seen those. 34 mill missing from the top is hard to miss...GEEZ. However, in a recession like we\'re currently in, obviously gambling allowances are the first luxury to be shelved. Next year\'s numbers will paint the more accurate picture and if they\'re this bad, your point will be well taken

[twoshoes]

Quick points. Buck - to my recollection there wasn\'t a single breakdown the entire Oaklawn meet and fewer at Saratoga than Del Mar this summer. I\'m as happy as you are that we didn\'t witness it this weekend and I fully agree with the fact that is a good thing for racing. Sight - all tracks and surfaces have their idiosyncrasies and my post earlier on another thread has nothing to do with wagering success. There is cetainly a way to play this surface and I\'ve adapted okay myself. I actually can\'t see myself keying Church Service in the Marathon at Belmont for instance. My point is simple - it\'s not dirt, let\'s not bother pretending that it is and let\'s be clear, there is little in the way of form, quantifiable form more to Jimbo\'s point, that translates from one surface to the other. The winners were best over this surface and that can be said for any BC over any track. It\'s just that in this particular case, those coming in with superior main track form on natural surfaces were brought back to the pack. If that\'s what you\'re looking for then you got it, I think they call it handicap racing. This isn\'t sour grapes, I did alright, particularly in the Pro-Ride Mile. Just one fan\'s opinion. And I\'m afraid by running it back there again next year you just may see the beginning of the end of the Breeder\'s Cup. Hope I\'m wrong about that and there\'s a good chance I am given my track record.

[Boscar Obarra]

I was quick to point out at the time that race two back where Curlin threw a 14 final 1/8. Shockingly slow.

 I think that\'s what you saw Saturday.

 He actually ran quite well till the final 1/16 where he flattened out  , and had the misfortune to have a few live ones in wait.

 I\'m not sure Pro Ride had anything to do with it.

[miff]

I think if there was a total anti-synth betting sentiment, the hanldle would have been down much more. The economy is mainly the reason since NYRA is down 10-15% as are most venues. If the BC was held at Belmont this year, I think the handle would have been almost the same.


Mike