Mr. Nightliner is my nominee for worst favorite on the card

[covelj70]

I know TG wise, he looks very very solid here but I think there are 4 reasons why he won\'t win on Sat at a short price:

1) He\'s not going to get the lead as California Flag is several lengths faster than him.  The few times that Mr. Nightliner hasn\'t gotten the lead, he hasn\'t won.

2) Speed tends not to hold up well on the downhill turf course anyway so I don\'t think Cal Flag or Mr. Nightliner will be there at the end given how fast they will both be winging it on the front-end.

3) Having a race over this particular downhill turf course is important because of the turf to poly back to turf move at the top of the stretch so not having raced on it is a big negative.

4) finally, after all of the 5f races he has run, I don\'t think he really wants to go 6.5f anyway,

I think he\'s a toss and instead would use Get Funky even though he\'s a little short numbers wise (3 for 3 over this course and should get the right kind of trip), Diabolical (with the Lasix back, he could regain some of the pre-Dubai no Lasix form) and Rouse the Cat.

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

Mr. Nightliner is probably not going to be the favorite and even if he is, he won\'t be \"short\", unless you define \"short\" as about 5-1.

I don\'t disagree with your assessment though of tossing him.  I don\'t think he repeats those figures going 6.5 \"down the hill\".  Much different going 5 f on a standard turf course instead of 6.5 down the hill.  

But I believe Hero\'s Reward could be \"salty\" here at a price.  Lots of competitive figures.  Castellano should work out a trip right behind the speed.

[Michael D.]

he\'ll be in the 4-1, 9-2 range. Fleeting Spirit looks to be 2nd choice at 6-1. I like the filly, but True To Tradition looks interesting at around 15-1. has the big negative figure going 5f, but he\'s also run well going long in the past. he should be able to pair up the \'0.75\' going 6 1/2 furlongs while saving ground.  

use FS and TTT.

Jim - probably looking at 20 to 25-1 on Heros Reward.

[TGJB]

There is at least one whole lot worse favorite (at least morning line) in the BC, a total throwout.

[HP]

My nominee is Bittel Road.  7/2 on the Equibase thing I\'m looking at.

[HP]

I did not notice that Get Funky is actually the favorite (?!?) in this Mr. Nightlinger race that started this thread...

[TGJB]

With the fast horses shipping in and the possible stricter testing questions for Calhoun and Lake, that race is indecipherable.

[firmturf]

I for some odd reason came back to Storm Treasure for Asmussen.

Back in January he ran a 1.75 on grass, got back to that when finally back to the grass in March then got a layoff. Was shipped to Canada to prep on Poly then ran on late in the Neartic first time turf sprint. His sire stats say he likes sprints better (15.5 to 13.5)

I agree with the analysis that they will be flying early and here is a closer within two points of the fastest horses at 12/1.

Slip behind them for the crossover of the syn then explode late to get them all?

[covelj70]

if Get Funky winds up the fav, I won\'t be on him.  Race too wide open to play the favorite but I won\'t even include Mr. Nightline on the multi-race plays but I will use Get Funky there just in case.
thanks for the thoughts