Thoughts on the Sprint

[covelj70]

This has to be one of the weaker runnings of the Sprint that we have seen in some time.  First of all, there are only 9 horses which in an of itself changes the dynamic because this is usually one of the toughest trips in sports. Shouldn\'t be the case this year.  Guess the poly scared away alot of the others.

Also, there is normally suicidal fractions in this thing which doesn\'t seem to be the case this year either.

Third, the quality of those running isn\'t that good.

I\'m not compplaining because being able to use only a few horses and survive in the multi race plays is a good thing because the other races are plenty tough.

I think it\'s a three horses race with Street Boss and Midnight Lute towering over the field and Cost of Freedom also having a decent shot.  Midnight Lute has been scary in his breezes leading up to this.  He received a rare \"Breezing\" this morning from the SA clockers and he was still one of the fastest of the day.

First Defence seems to be the best of the rest but his last effort was very dull.  I suppose you could toss that out because it was run over a sloppy sealed track but he\'s not generally fast enough anyway.

Black Seventeen has to bouce off of that monster effort last out and he seems to like the dirt alot better than the poly anyway.

Fabulous Strike barely made it through his breeze over the weekend without getting pulled up so he\'s a toss for me as his recurring foot issues seem to be an issue again

And, Fatal Bullet, In Summation and Sing Baby Sing all look too slow

When I am this confident in only using two or three horses in a BC race in the pick 4, etc, I usually get myself in trouble so someone please tell me what I may be overlooking here in thinking this looks like one of the easier BC races to handicap in recent years.

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

Black Seventeen bounces to the moon and First Defence will not be getting back to his top until next year, if you ask me.  Sing Baby Sing is slow, as is In Summation.

However, not sure what figures you are looking at, but Fatal Bullet is definitely fast enough, in fact is the 3rd fastest horse coming in, when you adjust for weight.  Ran a negative 4 on poly, albeit Turfway poly, not Pro-Ride.  

Midnight Lute looks to run a big one and off the negative 7\'s, has to be used in multi-race bets.  

Tough call on Cost of Freedom.  The last one was awfully good and I don\'t believe the \"move up\" is as big as TG shows, as I think there is at least a reasonable chance that the delmar figure is slow.  (ran 110 beyer).

Street Boss is fine, but at what I expect to be the favorite\'s role, I will try to beat him, as he isn\'t one of the faster horses in the race.  

I would really like to take a shot with Fabulous Strike here if it weren\'t for all the bad comments about the recent workout.  The race doesn\'t have as much speed as usual and if he draws well Fabulous Strike will have a very good shot to lead them for a long time.  Will leave him on multi-race tickets though.

[covelj70]

Jimbo, thanks very much for the comments.

Of course you are right about Fatal Bullet\'s numbers.  I had made my own adjustment to his numbers and so the 4 negative wasn\'t showing up on my adjusted sheet.  Sorry about that.  

I think I need to take another look about using him in the multi-race bets upon further review.

Thanks alot for the help.  Seems like we saw the race the same way other than my issue with FB.

Thanks again.

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

Yes, we are pretty much in agreement.

I will tell you, the more I look at Fatal Bullet, the more I like this horse at a very nice price.  He reminds me a bit of Cajun Beat, in that he is a 3 year old, against older, who \"got good\" a bit late in the 3 year old campaign, so will fly beneath the radar (like Cajun Beat did).  I expect at least 12-1 and maybe more.  The horse has run on three different synthetic tracks and ran well on all three of them.

Boxcars on Fatal Bullet!!

[covelj70]

been looking at the horse ever since your post and I agree with you.  I have to include him.

funny also because Cajun Beat knocked me out of everything at SA last time it was out there.  

thanks again, much appreciated.

[Michael D.]

I have Fatal Bullet on top as well. the top-pair-top generic pattern is a good one for a fall 3 yr old. should be right on the pace, but can sit 2-3 lengths off if they go too quick. I think a repeat of last wins this. bounce factor and switch to p-r the risks, but the only nice looking sheet comes from Street Boss, and he\'s likely to be short on the board.

[richiebee]

Contenders in Alpha Order:

Black 17-- Not likely to repeat that shocking Bel effort. 1/4 synth lifetime,
has run pretty much the same TG in each synth effort, a number not likely to
win this.

Cost of Freedom-- Trivia ? which I do not know the answer to--how many horses
were claimed and went on to win a BC race the same year. Obviously improving
for Sadler, this one shows the TG indicia of soreness-- \"bi\", \"bo\", 2 vet
scratches and an entire year on the shelf.

Fabulous Strike-- Yes the work sounded ugly. This gelding is the absolute \"X\"
factor having never raced over synthetic. Too bad this guy couldn\'t have run in
the BC last year-- a win in the Sprint would have given sire Smart Strike an
astounding triple as SS also produced Curlin and English Channel.

Fatal Bullet-- 7/8 over synthetic surfaces. Forward moving as others have
pointed out, but I would want a square price on a gelding who will be facing
much faster runners than he has beaten in the past.

In Summation-- Seems like he must run his LT best to win here. Must watch the
replays to see what he was \"waiting\" for at the quarter pole in 2 of his last 3
races (see TG trackman\'s comments).

Midnight Lute-- I would imagine he has been pointed to this race since his
disappointing try in the Cigar Mile last November. Synth races OK, Pro- Ride
works dazzling, obviously Tres Gran Vitesse, Overbet?

Sing Baby Sing-- all out to beat Talent Search, who was away from racing for 11
months, in the Phoenix. Pass.

Street Boss-- Street Cry\'s improve dramatically from 3 to 4 according to the TG
sire index, and this runner certainly has. Another one with plenty of \"bi\" \"bo\"
(and a vet scratch) on the T-graph. Like Baffert and Frankel, trainer Headley
has saddled a winner of the BC Sprint.

The Pick-- IF he takes to the synth and IF he doesn\'t come down with a cough or
a sore hoof between now and Saturday, Fabulous Strike may have a lead on these
after a 1/2 mile. I will watch closely his last work and the finish of the
Vosburgh, where he seemed to lunge in the final strides. Would hope to be pari
mutuelly rewarded for stabbing with a runner with no synthetic resume.

[pistol]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> First of
> all, there are only 9 horses which in an of itself
> changes the dynamic because this is usually one of
> the toughest trips in sports. Shouldn\'t be the
> case this year.  Guess the poly scared away alot
> of the others.
>

More like the addition of the F&M Sprint, the Dirt Mile, and Turf Sprint.  The added races takes horses from other races.  Get used to watered down fields with the new races.  Last years sprint had only nine or ten.  The Classic gets horses pulled to the dirt mile and now the Marathon.  We used to get a filly or two, sometimes a turf sprinter trying the sprint, or a horse who was really suited for longer.  It is no surprise the field is smaller and it is not the poly.

[mlnolan00]

MIDNIGHT LUTE (Sprint) hit the track after the break and is another that couldn\'t look any better.  The striking dark bay worked a half-mile and finished powerfully through the stretch with long bounding strides in :47.  Best work of the morning by far!  Good luck beating this colt...he\'s gonna dominate his foes! - Tim Turrell
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
He\'s been looking and training great apparently, but I\'m still worried about his effectiveness on the new surface.

Also, they flew in the farrier over the weekend to look at the foot he grabbed in the Del Mar race.  Kind of reminds me of Leroidesanimeaux a few years ago, and we know how that one turned out.

Still think he is a capable winner, with the only other true contenders for the win being Fab Strike and Street Boss.  But I\'m slightly intrigued by First Defence, his dam did finished 2nd in the race years back.  I\'m meeting with my friend who works for Juddmonte today who speak regularly with Bobby so I\'ll have to ask him about FD and Ventura, who I think is VERY dangerous in the F&M Sprint.

Bobby seems quietly opptimistic, and I\'m quite certain more than one of his charges will run lights out.

[richiebee]

According to DRF, ML worked with a bar shoe (left front).

Yet to be determined if he will race with it on.

[miff]

Midnight Lute working lights out even with the bar(left front)Baffy thinks he will NOT wear the bar shoe on Sat if all continues well.ML has two things to overcome:

1.The size of the starting gate which Baffert claims is smaller than the East Coast(is that possible?)He barely fits in the gate.

2.An inside post will not be ideal for this monsterously large animal who does not always break running and may get covered up along the inside.


Re the race itself, subject to post draw,using Cost of Freedom, Fatal Bullet, Street Boss and Mid Lute if he draws well,otherwise a toss.Leaning heavily on horses with competetive TG figs and good races/works on the pro ride surface both days.

Mike

[RICH]

Ask him about OUT OF CONTROL, who I think has a very big shot in the turf.

[miff]

Fatal Bullet worked ugly on Sunday according to the very sharp eyes of Mike Welch(drf) Ugh!!,he\'s one I liked for a price.

Mike

[major78]

Reade Baker was just interviewed on TVG....Fatal Bullet didn\'t wear blinkers for that work...He said the horse was looking around...

Fatal Bullet will wear blinkers on saturday...

Baker said last 3 races were track records...The horse is an improving 3 year old and he expects him to run big....

[RICH]

come on, a definte use as a 3yr moving forward. There is some history to that kind of line