Saratoga Saturday Thoughts

[W. Deranged]

Hi all,

My first post here in a long time, but a regular reader. I\'m an inexperienced sheet reader, so wanted to solicit some feedback on thoughts for Woodward day.

Race 1: Por Favor to win; exactas with 2, 3, 6, 8

PF has set a very consistent performance level prior to the last, when he ran a big number in the Claiming Crown on turf. Moves turf to dirt, which seems his preferred surface, and the patterns suggest he\'s at least around 40% to run back to the established level. Early speed suggests he might be able to save some ground from the 5 hole, an advantage given the likely favorite (King Mobay) has the 8th hole. KM has a decent form cycle, but may be only around 20-25% to get back to the  3 back race, and, with ground loss, that may not be enough to beat a 4-range figure from Por Favor. Delta Sun and Dodwell seem likely they might be in a position to move forward. Dodwell\'s speed might help him to save some ground (though he is outside PF), but if he clears and moves up to a \"6\"-range figure, he might make the exotics. Gold to Go\'s 5 1/2 figure two-back seems to merit a play despite all the doubts if he is going to go off as long as morning line suggests.



Race 2: Offshore to Win; Long Jump might be worth a look as well

Basic idea here is that the likely favorites (Sharif al Medina, Star Harbor) have only run 8s. Offshore is as fast as anyone with the lone 7, which doesn\'t look good to the DRF crowd, and the Phipps connections might have him primed 2nd out. Post position is the big concern, but could be worth a play regardless if the price is in the 8-1 range.



Race 3: Endless Circle to Win; use Couth in exotics

Endless Circle\'s pattern is very attractive. His last race is almost as good as Rollers\' top, and EC looks more likely to move forward while be a much better price. Benny the Waiter looks like he may have a forward move as well, and the inside post means ground saved, but he\'s a bit slower coming in and looms a shorter price. Couth may be the fastest outside the top three, and seems reasonably likely (50%) to pair or move forward, and while another 7-range figure will not win it, he could stumble into the exotics if one of the top three falters.