Belmont & Pick 4

[mjellish]

I think all of this talk about genetics is interesting, but to my eye it\'s over analytical.  Afterall, I\'m not going talk the teller into cashing a losing ticket by handing  her a test tube or citing a phenotype study after betting Guadalcanal to win.  I skipped the Preakness because I thought it was a terrible betting race, but I almost feel obligated to post something on the Belmont after crushing the Derby and still being called out on the board by Chuckles.  Hopefully I will get this day wrong enough to eat crow and he can send in the clowns.

As far as BB handling the distance, watch his gallop out after the Kentucky Derby.  He kept right on going all the way, even after getting caught wide on both turns and losing a lot of ground.  The 1 1/2 will be no problem for him.  The larger concern is his hoof and the fact that he is the only one that has raced in the Derby and Preakness.  His pattern heading into the race is tough to read because he was geared down in the Preakness and we really can\'t say whether he truly regressed or not.  On paper he did, but my eyes tell me differently and he is still the fastest horse in the race.  The rail is a pesky post.  Prado tried to box him in during the Preakness and he may try to do it again here.  My guess is Kent will have to go right out of the gate to get out and over before looking to see how the race is going to develop.  This could quicken the early pace and set up a lively stretch run even though on paper there does not appear to be much pace in the race.

Guadalcanal just closed 6 lengths into a 25.20 final quarter in his last race, so the distance will not be a problem.  Class and ability are very suspect.  His best TG figure is a 9 and this leaves him with way to much to do.  Toss.

Macho Again had to steady on the Preakness turn, went 5 wide and was still passing horses in the stretch once he regained his momentum.  He also continued to gallop out well after the finish of the race and has come back to train extremely well for the Belmont.  His best TG number is a 0, which puts him in the mix here, but that came in a long, one turn sprint at Churchill.  There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he either will or won\'t handle the 1 1/2 distance, but I\'m betting he will run his A+ race for as long as he can, which may even mean he runs a new top if he gets the distance.

In the Derby Dennis of Cork had to rally into an average pace from 20 lengths out of it and still managed to pass every horse except for two.  This was a big effort, and better than his TG number of 2 would indicate.  His previous established top was a 0 which he ran back in Feb.  This leaves him room to improve.  He is small framed and his connections said he came out of the derby a tired horse.  He has since had 5 weeks to recover from that effort and began to train exceptionally well, looking better and better leading up to the Belmont.  His running style will probably hurt him in this race because one run closers typically don\'t win the Belmont.  He will either have to be closer early or have some type of pace to run at, but his numbers indicate he is a contender here and he will probably be a fair price.  

We can assume Casino Drive will most likely handle the distance based not only upon his genetics but also by his closing 1/8th in the Peter Pan, which was 12.60.  How well he came out of that race, how he will handle two turns of American style racing and a much tougher field are an entirely different matter.  His connections seem to be fine with how he has been training, but to my eyes something seems amiss.  No works in 4 weeks says \"sore and tired horse\" to me.  I also don\'t like how he\'s been failing to change leads and counter cantering in his gallops.  On paper he is a contender, but he has only raced twice against Jr. varsity fields at best.  We know nothing about the horses he beat in his maiden and Mint Lane is no Alydar.  So Casino Drive may be the real deal, but he may be overrated and no matter what he is a definite underlay.  

Da Tara is still eligible for an ALWN1x race and his TG top of 3 is too slow to contend here.  This is a big step up in class and he would need to move way forward to hit board.  His only prayer is to take them wire to wire after a 1/2 in 51 and change, which is not likely.  He is the second Zito horse to be entered here.  I think this makes him the most likely horse to deliberately try to do something to make BB have to work for his money, and he may be in the race for this reason and set up Anak Nakal.

Tale of Ekati was gassed in the Wood Memorial and staggered home after chasing War Pass through suicidal fractions.  While I can forgive that, he then came back to lose nearly 5 lengths in the stretch run of the Kentucky Derby after having a fairly easy trip.  While training for the Belmont he flipped his pallet in a 6F workout and wound up with a very slow time.  His trainer came right out and said he was not at all happy with how things were going.  Since then TE has had a minor surgical procedure to correct his throat, and he came back to work much better in his penultimate work.  His prior top of 0 makes him a contender here, but because of all the above I doubt he is going to come out and run a new top or even pair his best.  My guess is he comes up flat at the top of the lane as he has already shown he is suspect at the classic distances.

Anak Nakal is a one paced runner that is bred to run all day.  His TG pattern would seem to indicate he is sitting on a big effort, and he would need to move forward at least 2 points to contend here.  Zito definitely knows how to get a horse ready for this race.  So if he is putting this one in here then you can bet he is going to run, but I don\'t know if his best will be good enough.  He figures to go off at a big price, and his steady pace running style makes him a very dangerous threat in the exotics.  If he moves forward, and I think he will, he could trigger some decent $ in the Super and Tri.

Ready\'s Echo has a Silky Sullivan running style, and that usually doesn\'t win the Belmont.  He just ran a new TG top of 2 in the Peter Pan and he did match Casino Drive\'s closing kick down the stretch, although he was already too far behind so it didn\'t matter much.  Still, he couldn\'t get up to pass Mint Lane in the Peter Pan and I wouldn\'t give that one much of a chance here.  He would have to move forward nearly 2 full points and hope some of the others regress to seriously contend, even for 2nd, so I think a minor piece is the best he can hope for.

Icabad Crane is coming off a new TG top of 3 that he earned in the Preakness after  getting stuck behind horses, losing momentum and steadying on the turn.  He closed well to be third and has the look of a runner that will appreciate the added distance, but he would still need to move forward several points to contend for 2nd and is probably looking at a minor award at best.  He does, however, in my opinion have a good shot to hit the board at a decent price.

I think the pace of this race is going to be quicker than people think because neither Casino Drive nor BB are going to want to let each other get the jump on the turn.  Historically you don\'t want to make your move in the Belmont until at least the 5/16th pole, and my guess is that one or the other will move before that and it will force the other to go with him.  This may set things up for the late runners to have a chance at passing one or both of them.  

So what happens if BB and Casino Drive happen to come off the turn together?  We have to remember that Dutrow chose to stay home for the Florida Derby after he saw BB look Diamond Stripes in the eye at the top of the stretch and draw off easily during their work together.  All Diamond Stipes did was come back to win the million dollar Godolphin Mile.  So if BB runs his race and hooks up with Casino Drive at the top of the lane, I am going to bet that Casino Drive will have no chance at staying with him.  Once he is beaten, he will probably even spit out the bit.  At that point I see DC, MA and AN bearing down the stretch and one of them or more should be able to pass.  

So I am going to try to make some money in the Tri and Super by playing against Casino Drive.  If he takes second I will cash a saver.  If he takes third or fourth I will make some money and maybe even a fair amount depending upon how right I am about some of these others.  If he runs out of Super I should be able to crush the race as I have to believe that 80% of tickets out there will have him covered.

I am also going to play the pick 4 with multiple tickets and hope I can get a few home that will offer some value.  I think Golden Doc A offers some value in the first leg as she had a terrible trip in the Oaks right when it looked like she was getting good at the right time.  Zaftig looks fastest and I can\'t toss Indian Blessing or Game Face.  

I also think Fatal Bullet & Run With Me have a shot in the the second leg along with RI, JBK, & MW.

The Manhattan looks like a great, great betting race and a lot of people are going to go deep.  Not only am I going to bet this race by itself, it should aslo add significant value to the pick 4 because of all the dead tickets it is likely to generate.  I think Out of Control, Dancing Forever and Stalingrad have a shot and will offer lots of value, but you have to respect Shakis, Better Talk Now, Stream of Gold & Proudinsky.  How you work this race into your tickets is probably the key to making money on the pick 4 by having some of them leveraged for more money or more tickets than others.

In the last leg, I plan to have a big ticket(s) with BB singled and a smaller ticket(s) with DC,MA & AN winning.  I should be getting 25-1 to 100-1 on my BB tickets when you factor in the Super and Tri\'s as well.  The smaller pick 4 ticket will be my hedge and the payoffs should be huge, 1000-1 or so if BB regresses.  If Casino Drive or one of the others win I will be toast on everything and there will be no Triple Crown.  What the hell, we\'ve waited this long.  As they say in Brooklyn, \"Wait \'till next year.\"

Happy Hunting!  

MJ

[girly]

Wow- thank you for so thoroughly explaining your reasoning for your plays-good post.PS-Any thoughts on the Brooklyn, or you aren\'t playing that? I have such a soft spot for Evening Attire I\'m afraid I will not be rational.

[albany]

As usual, an excellent post!

I agree with your insight that the two choices may, out of fear that the other will get the jump, engage each other prematurely. After all, they are not concerned with the rest of the field. In this type of situation, one of the engaged horses is likely to crack. While Casino Drive is, I must concede, the more likely of the two to crack, I don\'t think it is impossible that the mighty BB could falter. Why? The hoof, the post, the distance, the questionable pattern, the 3 races in 5 weeks and the fact that he may finally be facing a horse that can look him in the eye.

My advice: Split the favorites.

[Ill-bred]

Congrats on the Derby score M Jellish, enjoyed your wagering strategy posts.

Did I read wrong, or are you not using Pays to Dream in the Manhattan? I LOVE him at 8-to-1 ML.

In other races ... I hope Clement can fire big on a couple layoffs, as I believe Gio Ponti (R10 Friday, win bet at 5-to-2 or greater & box with Hatta Fort) and Vacare (Just a Game. win bet at 5-to-2 or greater) are potential standouts. They along with Pays to Dream are my three most likely win bets of the weekend. Always hate the layoff factor, but I believe in these horses.

In the Belmont, I will probably key Macho Again and Icabad Crane to revisit the tri and/or super.

Could also play Zaftig at ML odds of 3-to-1.

Good luck

[jimbo66]

Mjellish,

Interesting analysis and you can certainly make a case for Anak Nakal in the super.

The only comment I would have is I am not sure how you can make all the bets you lay out and then put a \"saver\" on an exacta that will pay about $6, maybe less.  You also aren\'t going to make a \"fair amount\" if Casino Drive runs 3rd or 4th, with the 2-5 shot on top, even if MA and/or AN runs 2nd or 4th.  And there certainly will be no \"crushing\" this race with BB on top of any exotic bet.  This isn\'t the 5-2 shot you keyed on top in the Derby in a 20 horse field, this is a 2-5 or shorter shot, with one other horse less than 10-1.  

But good luck anyway.

[mjellish]

Re: Belmont & Pick 4 (27 Views)
Posted by: jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: June 06, 2008 12:20AM

Mjellish,

Interesting analysis and you can certainly make a case for Anak Nakal in the super.

The only comment I would have is I am not sure how you can make all the bets you lay out and then put a \"saver\" on an exacta that will pay about $6, maybe less. You also aren\'t going to make a \"fair amount\" if Casino Drive runs 3rd or 4th, with the 2-5 shot on top, even if MA and/or AN runs 2nd or 4th. And there certainly will be no \"crushing\" this race with BB on top of any exotic bet. This isn\'t the 5-2 shot you keyed on top in the Derby in a 20 horse field, this is a 2-5 or shorter shot, with one other horse less than 10-1.

But good luck anyway.





-
Jimbo,

I\'m not playing any exactas.  Don\'t know where you got that from.  I\'m laying only Supers, a few tris and the pick 4.  

Like I said, if Casino Drive finishes second I will cash a small saver (because the super won\'t pay much no matter what). Everyone is going to play BB/CD/ DC,TE/all or BB/CD/all/all or some combo like that.  80% or more of the tickets will have CD on them, and at least 50% will have TE.  I don\'t like either CD or TE, so that gives me an edge if I am right.

Knowing that, even a caveman BB/ALL/ALL/ALL ticket could turn a profit if CD and TE finish of the board.  With a little more finesse I can do much better.  The key is multiple tickets and leveraging your opinion.  Plus by covering in the pick 4 with BB winning you are buying insurance that you will do even better.  Then hedge in the Pick 4 with BB losing and I don\'t care who you play.  Play \'em all, you\'re bound to be playing into an overlay unless it goes favorite/favorite/favorite/CD or something awfully close to that.

Do the math.  Visualize the probable payouts.

For reference, here are the recent odds of the horses that have filled out the super, the $2 payouts and anything of note.

2007 7 horses
4.3
1.1
6.8
4.9
$242.50

2006 12 horses
6.2
4.9
6.0
4.8
$1085 - Bob and John out of the money

2005 11 horses
1.15
11.9
20.5
17.1
$14219 - Giacomo out of the money

2004 9 horses
36.0
.35
27.75
14.20
$11679 - Smarty Jones 2nd, Rock Hard Ten out of the money

2003 6 horses
2.0
9.7
1.0
8.5
No Super

2002 11 horses
70.25
16.0
8.1
7.3
$145,334 - War Emblem out, Perfect Drift out

2001 9 horses
1.35
5.9
5.0
6.6
$183.50

Look at 2004, if Smarty wins and Birdstone takes second this still pays over 1.5k with Rock Hard Ten out.  As far as how the crowd tends to bet, does AN remind you of Birdstone, CD of Rock Hard Ten?  Nuther thought, if you don\'t like BB to win then take a really, really close look at 2004 and the nine horses that ran.  Try to remember what you thought of them and what you did right or wrong when you bet the race.  

Look at 2005 when the crowd had no idea how to bet it after Afleet Alex.  

Worst case scenario is 2001, 9 horses in the race, Point Given wins, AP Valentine second, Monarchos 3rd, Dollar Bill 4th.  That\'s BB/CD/DC/TE or a slight variation thereof.  If that;s the case the super pays $100, the grandmas go home happy, I get my money back or lose a little and hope the pick 4 pays better.

Your really think this crowd knows how to bet the race after BB,CD,DC,TE?

[miff]

Agree with Jim, no monster score with BB winning regardless of what comes behind. The field is too small and only if BB is off the board do I see the probability of a monster pay out.

BB will be \"negative value\" in every bet, i.e his price parlayed will be neutral to negative and he still has to win to cash out a p3,4 or 6. Very uninviting.I was aiming for a p6 but if Benny the Bull wins and BB wins, I think the payoff will be underlayed as they are both likely singles on many small tickets.


Mike

[miff]

Check out the animal loons!



Bloodhorse

State prosecutors in Jefferson County, Ky., said they can\'t investigate the death of the filly Eight Belles despite a request from People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals.

Steve Tedder, a spokesman for the commonwealth\'s attorney, said June 5 the actions requested by PETA aren\'t within the legal duties of the office. PETA has urged prosecutors to bring animal cruelty charges against Eight Belles\' trainer, Larry Jones.

Eight Belles broke down and subsequently was euthanized after the May 3 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) at Churchill Downs. A necropsy on Eight Belles showed she had no diseases or pre-existing bone abnormalities before her breakdown. She also tested negative for steroids

Lawyers for the animal rights group delivered a letter June 5 to R. David Stengel, the commonwealth\'s attorney for Jefferson County, asking for an investigation to be launched into the death of the 3-year-old filly. PETA demonstrated in front of the Kentucky Horse Racing Authority office the week after the Derby and called for changes in the horseracing industry, including a ban on 2-year-old racing.

[jbelfior]

Great post!


Not sure that Casino Drive will be prominent early. I\'m guessing D\'Tara goes to the lead and Tale of Ekati stalks with Big Brown comfortably easing off of the inside to track 3 wide. I\'m guessing the 1/2 goes in :48 and change, 6f in 1:12, the mile in 1:36 and change. This is where Tale of Ekati and Big Brown put D\'Tara away and open 3-4 lenghts on the rest of the field.

The rest will be either history, disappointment, or whatever depending on who you are rooting for!!


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[alm]

I\'m so confuuuuuused.

I\'m gonna handicap the handicappers: I will play Jerry Brown in the Belmont \'cause he is due and pass Jellish who is due for a bounce.

[fkach]

Nice analysis.

>So what happens if BB and Casino Drive happen to come off the turn together?<

I think the race development to that point will matter.

It\'s my experience using pace figures and observation that when the horses weren\'t used hard to that point, the horse with the superior acceleration/speed will scoot away from his more even paced rival. However, if the horses were used fairly hard to that point, the horse with the superior stamina wears the other one down.

I also think there are two factors that make this race a little different than the typical one.

1. They will run close to 10F before the challenge comes. So stamina will probably be a bigger factor than in the typical race even if the pace and any early/middle moves etc... are just average.

2. IMHO, these are not equal horses. BB is the superior horse.

On the distance issue. I agree that BB has given no indication that he can\'t get 12F based on the way he has finished and been pulled up after his races. I don\'t think we are talking about a collapse or a horse like War Emblem here. However, there are distance preferences even among versatile horses.

IMO, it\'s rare for a horse with as much natural speed as BB to also have the same degree of stamina.

For discussion\'s sake, let\'s say he\'s a couple of lengths worse at 12F than 10F. That shouldn\'t get him beat. But if he\'s used a bit early costing him another couple it could. Let\'s say he\'s 90% because of the hoof and missed training, 12F not being his preferred distance would make him extremely vulnerable.

I don\'t really know what the probabilities are on his hoof issue. I\'ve seen other horses like this not come back 100%, but it\'s not like I have a huge sample.

I would make BB about 75% in this spot if it weren\'t for the 12F and the hoof issues. As it is, IMO he\'s probably about even money. But I could easily be way off because I can\'t evaluate the hoof issue as well as some people might.

[Lost Cause]

girly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wow- thank you for so thoroughly explaining your
> reasoning for your plays-good post.PS-Any thoughts
> on the Brooklyn, or you aren\'t playing that? I
> have such a soft spot for Evening Attire I\'m
> afraid I will not be rational.


I personally think that Night Light can run all day, go to the lead or stalk the pace and has some of the best numbers also. I think he will be the best horse in the Brooklyn.  Don\'t forget the special Double they are going to have Brooklyn into Belmont Stakes.

PS: As hard as it may be you have to learn to leave your heart out of gambling...or you\'ll leave your purse at the racetrack  : )

[girly]

Amen to that! Ideally, I think they should let Evening Attire graze in the grass and enjoy a long retirement. Or part time as a stable horse like Funny Cide.

[Michael D.]

good luck Michael.

I am going to key DoC in this one. I see a pretty good pace (for the distance), and Albarado should get clean run just about all the way from post 4. sustaining the run is the challenge, and with the \'0\' coming with one run at a flat mile in a fast-paced race, it is a big challenge. the colt is bred to go long on bottom though, and he eats up a good amount of ground with the strides.

I still make BB about 70% to win this thing, but at 3-10 or so, it makes some sense to have other runners on top on some tickets.

as for CD, a contender if he goes. you have to respect the Better Than Honour angle, but isn\'t that well in the price by now? dangerous, but value at 7-2?

and I will be using Ready\'s Echo at a price. I like the \'2.5\' last, and the colt has some serious stamina influences on bottom. one of these plodders usually hits the super in this race, and this guy could be the one.

DoC to win & use the above 4 colts in the tri and super.

[Lost Cause]

girly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Amen to that! Ideally, I think they should let
> Evening Attire graze in the grass and enjoy a long
> retirement. Or part time as a stable horse like
> Funny Cide.

As long as he is bringing in a check every time he runs...We\'ll see Evening Attire around for a long time..