Betting Strategy with 2 Strong Favorites

[albany]

In my opinion, the best way to extract value from the Belmont is to split the 2 favorites. This is a viable option because each favorite has, as has been discussed on this Board, a number question marks. Yet, I feel it would be unlikely that either one would run off the board completely. Besides, a substantial profit could be derived by simpling splitting BB and CD in triples and supers.

At this point, I intend to use the triples as savers by using CD and BB first and third with DOC, MA and TOE in the middle. I will go for the kill shot by using CD and BB first and fourth in the supers with the same 3 in the second and third spots. Either way would be fine, but I would obviously prefer CD in the one hole and BB in the four spot.

What do you think?

[richiebee]

Albany:

Questions and Comments:

I am surprised that you are playing Cdrive and BB equally. Does this reflect
your belief that they have an equal chance in this race?

What do you think the tris with the favorite and second favorite in first and
third can pay with DOC TOE and MA in the middle?

Wont be making tris, but if I were it would be BB/TOE,DOC/With all except
CDrive (50% of trifecta budget); TOE,DOC/BB/All except CD for the other 50%.

Need to see the Brooklyn entries (how many chances do you get to bet a double
composed of 1-1/2 dirt races?) and the BEL undercard. Need some big fields and
beatable faves in the P3/P4.

[albany]

Richie:

I believe that BB is the more probable winner. However, I feel that CD has a reasonable chance given BB\'s relative inactivity coming up to the race and the lack of talent in the field. I will be using BB and CD equally because CD\'s lower probability of winning is more than offset by a higher payoff. I will be splitting them because of the distinct possibility that BB and CD will be testing each other prematurely and this may result in one of them cracking under pressure and falling out of the exacta. At the distance, I believe that it is impossible to say that BB is less apt to fade when tested then CD.

I would think that the tris with BB on top and CD in third will, depending on who runs second among the 3 others I like, range between $30-$60. With CD on top, they should pay between $70 and $100. The tris will be saver bets for me,  I\'m hoping for a 1st/4th finish for the favorites.

I obviously have a higher opinion of CD then you. Nevertheless, I don\'t dismiss your suggested tri since CD could, under the \"premature pressure\" scenario outlined above, fall to 4th (I hope so) or further back (I hope and expect he will not). Similarly, BB could also fade to 3rd, which would make your other suggested play quite possible.