Thoro-Graph Figures--2008 Kentucky Derby

[TGAB]

Attached are Thoro-Graph figures for the 2008 Kentucky Derby.

This was actually not that straightforward a day,between moisture in the track (sealed first two, listed good 3-4), and high winds that dried the track out and affected times.

The Derby itself was not that tough, and fit pretty well (1 point difference in variant) with the route that followed it.

JB

[DaveDuggan]

Wow, about 4,5 lengths better than Barbaro isn\'t that right?

[BitPlayer]

TGJB –

A couple of questions related to the Derby figures (from one of the other 98%):

At the close of the Oaks broadcast, they were showing the tractors working on Churchill Downs and Jerry Bailey commented that he hoped the jockeys were paying attention, because Churchill was going to be a paved highway (or words to that effect) on Derby Day.  In light of what happened to Eight Belles, I'm wondering how true that was.  Do you calculate a variant that reflects only speed of the track surface, independent of the wind?  If so, was the CD surface significantly faster for the Derby than it was before the rains came on Friday?

I realize that the Derby figs are pretty noncontroversial, but I do have a general question relating to methodology for which the Derby figs serve as a good example.  You often talk about doing races based on "all the horses", but it strikes me that many races don't leave you much to work with.  You have one or two horses running really well and a bunch running clunkers, and you are left trying to decide whether anyone in between paired their top and, if so, who.  The Derby falls in that category.  The Gotham is another race that comes to mind.  In the Derby you have Eight Belles, and only Eight Belles, exactly pairing her top.  (I don't count Colonel John, pairing a cushion-track top on dirt.)  It seems equally likely that she ran a little better or a little worse than her previous top (perhaps getting back to the "1.5" she had run in her last two races).  That being the case, why did you opt to adjust the variant by a point, rather than just tying the Derby to the route that followed it?

[sekrah]

If Big Brown is forced to run another negative in the Preakness to win, both Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati are live to run a negative to win the Belmont.

[TGJB]

Bit-- the track was sealed and faster than it had been for the first race Saturday, and somewhat slower for the second. After that they opened it up, and it was slower. Overall it was not that fast. Some of the sprint times (esp. at 7f) looked better than they were because of the strong backstretch tailwind.

If I had tied the Derby exactly to the other route I would have made the race a point faster. It fit better this way (pairs are what you want, all other things being equal, and the only other way of doing it I even considered made the race 2 1/2 points faster, but gave out a lot of big numbers). But there is no reason to tie those two races together exactly, as I have explained in \"Changing Track Speeds,\"especially with an hour between races, a drying out track, and gusting winds.

And anyway, why not tie the other race to the Derby?