Derby Seminar & Eight Belles

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- yes, Barbaro looked fine coming INTO the Derby. He had had his races spaced, but for the Preakness was coming back on two weeks rest. He was also coming back following a 4 point jump, again on two weeks. I can\'t remember other Derby winners that looked like that,and I haven\'t made the kind of comments (impending danger comments) about too many horses.

And by the way, I\'m not going to say in a seminar or anywhere publicly that a horse is GOING TO BREAK DOWN. If he doesn\'t I look like a jerk and the connections hate me, and if he does the conections really hate me, and they get accused of being incompetent, or worse.

It\'s unlikely that the decision to give DOC extra rest will be given any credit, but it did exactly what it was supposed to do. He was going to bounce under any circumstances-- this was he did run well in the Derby, and (again, as I said in the seminar) it probably kept him sounder than he otherwise would have been.

A couple of years ago someone posted a study on this board correlating number of races plus workouts, per month, with breakdowns. The results were extreme. I wonder if anyone can find it.

[Ron G.]

I remember the study, I printed a copy and will try to find it.  Last year, I had a friend who had a horse that ran really, really big in her debut.  I won\'t go into who (trainer or horse\'s name) but it was trained by a top, nationally known trainer.  Anyway, I warned them to give the horse some time after its debut but instead they ran it back two weeks later in a stakes.  Before the race, I made the mistake of telling them -- \"your horse will win but it will probably break down and never race again.\"  You can guess what happened.

[Ron G.]

\"In this study, using information on 64 horses euthanized during a nine-month period in 1991, the researchers attempted to match each horse with a catastrophic racing fracture to a control horse selected from horses that were less severely injured during the same time period at the same track. Horses were evaluated for a number of factors, including age at first race, average lifetime racing frequency, percentage of time laid up, time since last layup, and the total and rate of work accumulated within one month and six months of the injury.

Overall statistical analysis found that only high total and high average daily rates of exercise within a two-month period were associated with an increased risk of catastrophic racing fracture. Horses that had accumulated a total of 35 furlongs of high-speed activity in races or timed workouts within the two months had a 3.9 times greater chance of catastrophic racing fracture compared with matched horses that had accumulated 25 furlongs of similar work during the same period.\"

[marcus]

i recall the study\'s , i believe sighthound posted them on a rear breakdown thread in may of 2006 and there was a section on high-speed exercise history and catastrophic racing fracture in thoroughbreds -
Re: Rear breakdowns (383 Views)
Posted by: sighthound (IP Logged)
Date: May 22, 2006 03:32PM


Caveat - not a practicing equine vet. Horses carry more weight on the forehand than rear. Brief lit search found a couple of interesting things, apologize in advance TGJB if too long or inappropriate to board content or current discussion:

Characterisation of the type and location of fractures of the third metacarpal/metatarsal condyles in 135 horses in central Kentucky (1986- 1994).
Equine Vet J 31[4]:304-8 1999 Jul - Zekas LJ, Bramlage LR, Embertson RM, Hance SR Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital, Lexington, Kentucky 40580-2070, USA.
The objective of this retrospective study was to provide a detailed description of the characteristics of condylar fractures represented in a population of 135 horses who sustained 145 fractures. Records and radiographic studies were examined. Fifty-nine percent of the horses were male and the majority Thoroughbreds. The distribution of fractures was 37% incomplete-nondisplaced, 30% complete-nondisplaced and 32% complete-displaced. *** The right front was more likely to sustain a complete-displaced fracture, whereas the left front was more likely to sustain an incomplete-nondisplaced fracture. Forelimbs (81%) and lateral condyles (85%) were more likely to be involved. Contrary to previous studies, the right forelimb was slightly more often involved than the left. Fractures tended to involve the middle portion of the condyle (59%). The mean length of all fractures was 75+/-3.8 mm. Axial fractures and medial condyle fractures tended to be longer. Fifteen percent of the fractures had definitive articular comminution. Ninety- five percent of fractures with articular comminution were associated with complete fractures. When fractures entered the middle area of the condyle, 23% had articular comminution. Eight of the fractures spiralled, all involved forelimbs. Concurrent lesions included proximal phalanx chip fractures, sesamoid fractures, sesamoiditis, proximal phalanx fractures, \'splint\' bone periostitis and ligamentous injuries. The complete description of the fractures in this group of horses allows us better to define the condylar fracture, compare these fractures to previous studies and establish new data for use in defining prognosis.

High-speed exercise history and catastrophic racing fracture in thoroughbreds.
Am J Vet Res 57[11]:1549-55 1996 Nov Estberg L ; Stover SM ; Gardner IA ; Drake CM ; Johnson B ; Ardans A OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relation between several racing speed history characteristics and risk of fatal skeletal injury (FSI) in racing Thoroughbreds. ANIMALS: 64 Thoroughbreds euthanatized during a 9-month period in 1991 at a California racemeet because of a catastrophic fracture incurred while racing (cases), identified retrospectively. For each race in which an FSI occurred, 1 control horse was randomly selected from the noncatastrophically injured participants. PROCEDURE: Racing and officially timed workout histories were obtained for each horse. Several history characteristics were calculated to summarize racing career patterns and high-speed exercise schedules prior to date of injury and included age at first race, proportion of career spent laid up, average duration of laid up periods, average lifetime racing frequency, time from last lay up to date of injury, and total and rate of distance accumulated 1 to 6 months prior to date of injury. History characteristics associated with FSI were screened by paired t-test and studied in detail, using conditional logistic regression. *** RESULTS: High total and high average daily rates of exercise distance accumulation within a 2-month period were associated with higher risks for FSI during racing, yet career patterns, such as age at first race or total proportion of career spent laid up, were not found to be associated with risk for FSI. A horse that had accumulated a total of 35 furlongs of race and timed-work distance in 2 months, compared with a horse with 25 furlongs accumulated, had an estimated 3.9-fold increase in risk for racing-related FSI (95% confidence interval = 2.1, 7.1). A horse that had accumulated race and timed-work furlongs at an average rate of 0.6 furlong/d within a 2-month period, compared with a horse with an average of 0.5 furlong/d, had an estimated 1.8-fold increase in risk for racing-related FSI (95% confidence interval = 1.4, 2.6). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Thoroughbred racehorses that either accumulate large total high-speed distances or rapidly accumulate high-speed distances within a 2-month period may be at increased risk for FSI during racing.

Horseshoe characteristics as possible risk factors for fatal musculoskeletal injury of thoroughbred racehorses. Am J Vet Res 57[8]:1147-52 1996 Aug Kane AJ ; Stover SM ; Gardner IA ; Case JT ; Johnson BJ ; Read DH ; Ardans AA OBJECTIVE: To evaluate selected shoe characteristics as risk factors for fatal musculoskeletal injury (FMI) and specifically for suspensory apparatus failure (SAF) and cannon bone condylar fracture (CDY) of Thoroughbred racehorses in California. DESIGN: Case-control study. ANIMALS: Thoroughbred racehorses (n = 201) that died of were euthanatized at California racetracks between August 1992 and July 1994. PROCEDURE: Shoe characteristics were compared between case horses affected by FMI (155), SAF (79), and CDY (41) and control horses that died for reasons unrelated to the appendicular musculoskeletal system (non-FMI; 46). Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios for FMI, SAF, and CDY. RESULTS: Toe grabs were identified as possible risk factors for FMI, SAF, and CDY. The odds of FMI, SAF, and CDY were 1.8, 6.5, and 7.0, respectively, times greater for horses shod with low toe grabs than for horses shod without toe grabs on front shoes. Horses shod with regular toe grabs on front shoes had odds 3.5, 15.6, and 17.1 times greater (P < 0.05) for FMI, SAF, and CDY, respectively, compared with horses shod without toe grabs. The odds of horses shod with rim shoes were a third (P < 0.05) of those shod without rim shoes for either FMI or SAF. The apparent association between toe grab type and CDY may, in part, be attributable to concurrent SAF and CDY injuries in many horses. *** CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Avoiding the use of toe grabs should decrease the incidence of FMI, especially SAF, in Thoroughbred racehorses. The use of rim shoes that are more consistent with natural hoof shape may decrease injury risk.

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

I hear you, but my point is what do you want to do about it?  Did you want Barbaro held out of the Preakness?  The connections got criticized at that time for running on 5 weeks rest before the derby, something which no horse had been able to win previously with (tradition said 3 or 4 weeks rest was the maximum).  So, the connections did the right thing before the Derby, the horse ran his race in the Derby and won.  The Preakness is 2 weeks later.  You don\'t really think that the industry is going to become so conscious of spacing that Derby winners are going to skip the Preakness and point to the Belmont?

Moving forward to today\'s situation, what would you do with Big Brown.  Let\'s assume he is running these figures non-aided with one of the trainers that you work with.  Are you advising the trainer and owner to skip the Preakness?  Retire the horse?  Point to the Belmont?  Or are you running in the Preakness and just hoping he doesn\'t get hurt?

[sighthound]

The following is regarded as a very important study.
----------------------

Gait and speed as exercise components of risk factors associated with onset of fatigue injury of the third metacarpal bone in 2-year-old Thoroughbred racehorses.
Boston RC, Nunamaker DM.
Department of Clinical Studies, School of Veterinary Medicine, New Bolton Center, University of Pennsylvania, Kennett Square 19348, USA.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the degree to which components of the training program of 2-year-old Thoroughbred racehorses influence their susceptibility to fatigue injury of the third metacarpal bone (bucked shins).

ANIMALS: 226 two-year-old Thoroughbred racehorses.

PROCEDURE: Daily training information and health reports on 2-year-old Thoroughbreds were compiled from records provided from 5 commercial stables. For each horse, data (exercise variables) were collected that comprised distance jogged (approx speed of 5 m/s), galloped (approx 11 m/s), and breezed (approx 15 to 16 m/s) until a single instance of bucked shins was reported. Data were coded for analysis using cross-tabulation, graphic, and survival techniques.

RESULTS: Of 226 horses, 56 had bucked shins, 9 completed the observation period without bucked shins, and 161 were lost to follow-up.

Distinct training strategies were used at stables resulting in significantly different survival profiles among stables.

Mean (+/- SD) allocation of exercise to breezing was 0.15 +/- 0.13 miles/wk (maximum, 0.64 miles/wk), to galloping was 4.47 +/- 1.52 miles/wk (maximum, 9.56 miles/wk), and to jogging was 2.34 +/- 1.70 miles/wk (maximum, 8.53 miles/wk).

Survival (ie, lack of bucked shins during 1 year of monitoring) was found to be significantly reduced by exercise allocation to breezing, significantly increased by exercise allocation to galloping, and uninfluenced by exercise allocation to jogging.

The log of the hazard ratio was reduced by 4.2 +/- 1.5/mile breezed and increased by 0.3 +/- 0.1/mile galloped.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Relationships between different gaits and speeds in the training regimen influence the incidence of bucked shins.  To reduce the incidence of bucked shins, trainers should consider allocating more training effort to regular short-distance breezing and less to long-distance galloping.

[BitPlayer]

Here\'s the abstract from a Texas A&M study that reaches the opposite conclusion for a larger group of horses in Kentucky.  There\'s also a finding that horses with higher Beyer speed figures were more likely to get hurt.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between high-speed exercise and risk of injury while racing among Thoroughbreds in Kentucky. DESIGN: Matched case-control study. ANIMALS: 206 Thoroughbreds that sustained a musculoskeletal injury while racing and 412 Thoroughbreds that were not injured during the same races. PROCEDURE: Data regarding official timed workouts and races and the Beyer\'s numbers for the 3 races before the race during which injury occurred were extracted from past performance charts and compared between injured horses and control horses. RESULTS: For injured horses, cumulative distance of high-speed exercise during the 1- and 2-month periods prior to the race in which injury occurred was significantly less than that of control horses; for either period, a difference of 10 furlongs was associated with approximately 2-fold greater risk of injury. Beyer\'s numbers were significantly higher for injured horses than for control horses. These effects remained significant after adjusting for age and results of prerace physical inspection. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: In Kentucky, injured horses had significantly less cumulative high-speed exercise than did control horses during the 1- and 2-month periods prior to the race in which injury occurred. These results differ from those observed in California. The association of injury with cumulative high-speed exercise appears to vary among regions in the United States.

PMID: 10767969 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

[miff]

\"Are you advising the trainer and owner to skip the Preakness? Retire the horse? Point to the Belmont? Or are you running in the Preakness and just hoping he doesn\'t get hurt\"

Jim,

...easy, sell for the $50 -60 Milion being offered or get greedy, win the TC,then sell for $150 million.

Mike

[HP]

This raises a good point -- if you take all the criticism leveled at the EBelles team -- you could easily criticize Dutrow for taking a horse with bad feet to the Preakness on two weeks rest off that monster effort.  No matter what anyone says, he does NOT have to run.  The temptation is to run is huge, but if anything goes wrong, Team Dutow and horse racing as a whole is set up for a HUGE media bust...  (sorry if this is redundant, I did not read this whole thread).

[fkach]

IMO, a horse like Big Brown has a higher probability of breaking down or pulling up for reasons totally unrelated to his figures or spacing than the typical horse because he\'s had a history of hoof and ankle (I believe) problems to begin with. I don\'t think it\'s a longshot to predict that he\'s not going to make it to the end of the season before being retired.

IMO, a trainer should probably be more careful with a horse like that before pushing him. However, some other horses seem to thrive on harder work. If you sit them on the bench, all you are doing is leaving large purses, graded races, and millions of dollars on the table.

I\'ve seen two studies on fast/sharp horses and days between starts (one based on the top performance figure in a race and one based on horses running a sharp race as defined by finish). Both suggested that if a horse ran a big effort last out the probability of him winning his next start INCREASED if he came back QUICKER.

IMO, what that suggests is that if the trainer is running him back so fast, he must think the horse has sufficiently recovered and wants to capitalize on the good form. The trainer is usually right. It could very well be that the horses that are given more time are given more time because they didn\'t come out of their fast race very well.    

I\'m not a trainer, but to me this is more of a trainer competence and thoroughness issue than it is a figure pattern and spacing issue.  

I don\'t want to debate Denis of Cork because I don\'t know if the extra spacing helped him or not, but IMO he didn\'t \"performance\" bounce in the Ill Derby. He just had a very different set of conditions in each of his races this year. IMO his Ill Derby was an obvious toss. He had no shot given the race development.

[SoCalMan2]

My recollection was that Gato Del Sol skipped the Preakness after winning the Derby.  Whatever pressure there was, it sure didn\'t bother the connections.  I think they said the horse could only get the longer distances and they felt he would not do well in the Preakness.  Also, Spend a Buck obviously skipped the Preakness, but that was thanks to Brennan increasing the bonus for the New Jersey Derby.  There is definitely precedent for healthy Derby winners to skip the Preakness much less unhealthy ones.  

I do seem to recall that Sunny\'s Halo was iffy for the Preakness.  HE had some bad rash and they were not sure whether or not to run him.  They ran him and he ran miserably and they blamed the rash. If I recall correctly.

[smalltimer]

Given Eight Belles breakdown in the Derby, I think the Preakness offers a couple of ways of looking at things.
As some have suggested, it is not imperative Big Brown run in the Preakness on the short rest. Cleary, its not that unusual.  Add the fact of his reported bad ankles, etc, its easy to skip the race if the connections choose to.  
If he doesn\'t win then the Triple Crown is off the table and the connections can make a decision in the best interest of the horse.  Coming into the Belmont with 5 weeks makes Brown fresh and dangerous to win, even though the appeal of a TC winner is no more.
However, if Brown does run in the Preakness and wins, the pressure to run back in the Belmont becomes tremendous. That\'s where the industry and public pressure becomes greatest, because if he has 2 legs won, its gonna be awful tempting to run him that mile and a half and hope nothing happens.
The idea of a horse with 2 wins under his belt skipping the Belmont would be unusual.
It\'ll be interesting to see how things play out.  I just hope we\'ve seen the last of high profile horses going down for a long time.  Wishful thinking on my part, I know.

[richiebee]

My opinions:

1)Right now Racing needs a colt eligible to win the Triple Crown, and I would
say that Racing after 30 years could use a Triple Crown winner. This is
especially true for NY Racing, which is really in a bad way now.

2)\"1\" above might seem really insensitive to the well being of the Derby winner,
but looking at the Preakness entries, Big Jerry Brown could walk or jog between
the Derby and the Preakness, maybe breeze one easy half mile, and win the
Preakness pretty handily.

3) Then in the Belmont you would be looking at a colt who has been very lightly
raced running his fourth race in 10 weeks against a field which has been
lying in wait for him, which might make the Belmont the most fascinating of the
3 TC races so far.

[jimbo66]

Miff,

Yuck.  Look at what you are suggesting.  So, from now on, instead of the usual disappointment that racing fans get when the best 3 year olds retire right AFTER the Triple Crown or at a minimum at the end of their 3 year old season, let\'s target the Derby, win it, then retire.  

That is pretty jaded.  Or just the fast ones should do that?  If you win with a pair up or run a mediocre race, then you can move on to the Preakness, but if you run fast, retire immediately.

Racing is bad enough without that kind of behavior.  What you and others on this board don\'t seem to realize is that the triple crown is not about us, \"us\" being the regular horse players.  Hell, some of \"us\" look at the Triple Crown as just another betting opportunity.  Most of us would still bet horses if the Triple Crown didn\'t exist.  However, the Triple Crown is one of the only times that racing gets a chance to be broadcasted to the greater masses and thus generate interest.    

Having a horse win the Derby with such conviction like Big Brown did, then decide to retire, would suck.  Period.

[smalltimer]

I personally think the everyday players are the ones who get jobbed with the way racing conducts itself.
Almost every good one retires at the end of their 3 year old season, hell, we rarely get the pleasure of watching them destroy fields in their 4 year old season.  Obviously, if Curlin weren\'t the subject of much litigation, he\'d have been retired last October after the BC win.  The only reason we have him as the dominant 4 year old now is strictly financial, there is zero regard for the players, fans or industry.
As far as the casual fan, they don\'t know which end eats and which end kicks, for them its just one of the half a dozen days a year they go to the track.  
If we had Street Sense, Hard Spun and a half dozen of the really top notch horses from last year to handicap as older horses, the interest would be maintained.
I\'ve found myself for years not having much fondness for the really great ones who win a couple races and can\'t get to the breeding shed fast enough.
Sometimes the lack of loyalty to any fan base, and the overall disregard of what really creates interest in the sport means nothing to those who can retire a horse.
It\'s always about the money, and that\'s not necessarily a bad thing.