Derby Seminar & Eight Belles

[TGJB]

1-- It wasn\'t Jones.

2-- I can\'t bring the third party into this, but I said what I said both then (trying to head problems off), and in my Derby comments. Given what followed, the point of your comments about me not being a trainer is... what?

Also made similar comments before Go For Wand\'s last race, and said the Derby effort and short rest were going to stress Barbaro significantly. I would say that the times I have said things like that have been relatively few, but maybe you can find a bunch of times I\'ve said that and they went on to race ten more times.

3-- I\'ve dealt with several hundred horses and I don\'t know how many trainers in my career.

4-- I made the mistake once myself, with a filly called License Fee. I didn\'t pay enough attention to the number of starts and spacing-- until after she broke down on the track. Having said that, a) she was older and therefore theoretically sturdier, b) we didn\'t run her as often as they ran this filly, and c) she didn\'t lug in or give any indication trouble was coming, like this one did. Watch the head-on of the Fantasy.

I\'m not taking a shot at the connections-- you brought them into this, and I tried to keep it from going there. I\'m saying there were valid reasons to take the position I took (even before the Fantasy), and you didn\'t have to be a trainer.

[Eight Belles]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 1-- It wasn\'t Jones.
>
> 2-- I can\'t bring the third party into this, but I
> said what I said both then (trying to head
> problems off), and in my Derby comments. Given
> what followed, the point of your comments about me
> not being a trainer is... what?
>
> Also made similar comments before Go For Wand\'s
> last race, and said the Derby effort and short
> rest were going to stress Barbaro significantly. I
> would say that the times I have said things like
> that have been relatively few, but maybe you can
> find a bunch of times I\'ve said that and they went
> on to race ten more times.
>
> 3-- I\'ve dealt with several hundred horses and I
> don\'t know how many trainers in my career.
>
> 4-- I made the mistake once myself, with a filly
> called License Fee. I didn\'t pay enough attention
> to the number of starts and spacing-- until after
> she broke down on the track. Having said that, a)
> she was older and therefore theoretically
> sturdier, b) we didn\'t run her as often as they
> ran this filly, and c) she didn\'t lug in or give
> any indication trouble was coming, like this one
> did. Watch the head-on of the Fantasy.
>
> I\'m not taking a shot at the connections-- you
> brought them into this, and I tried to keep it
> from going there. I\'m saying there were valid
> reasons to take the position I took (even before
> the Fantasy), and you didn\'t have to be a trainer.


No, I didn\'t bring the trainer into this.  In this thread, jbelfior did, and before that, you\'ve made several \"hints\" that you knew something \"damning\" regarding Eight Belles.

And how did you put it when I made a very reasonable reply to jbelfior, defending the trainer?  I think you put it, \"You don\'t want to go there. I\'m dead serious about that. Read my post \"Several Things\" from yesterday, and my entire seminar comments about the filly. And drop it.\"

If you\'re not taking a shot at the connections, you sure could\'ve fooled me.  And you really don\'t want to go there.

[fkach]

I don\'t think I\'m missing the point. I think the poster Eight Belles was referring to legitimate studies when he was talking about stress and bone development. However, those studies were mostly related to 2YO and younger horses so they may not be applicable in this case. In addition, any study of  layoffs and breakdowns would have to be adjusted for bias because many horses that are laid off for a lengthy period of time have problems to begin with.

I have no idea what the correct number of races per year is.

Based on my observation of PPs alone (I have no expertise on horse flesh at all), I would say it\'s an entirely individual thing. Some horses seem to be tougher than others. I spent the better part of last summer saying that Hard Spun probably needed a rest. But IMO he kept getting better all year long. So I guess he thrived on the hard work. If Jones had spaced all his races and given him a much lighter schedule all he would have accomplished would have been to leave millions and perhaps a Grade 1 win on the table. I think that happens a REAL LOT in the modern game.

I think another factor is what the trainer is doing with the horses between races. Since I\'m not a trainer, I don\'t know what\'s best. But I have observed many  trainers that seem to work their horses very hard between starts. Their horses seem to have shorter and more brilliant campaigns before going bad. They also seem to lose more young promising horses. That goes back to before all these soundness and race spacing issues were even discussed much.  


I don\'t know how to do it, but I think a trainer has to know his horse, have him checked out, care for him properly, and only do what the individual horse can safely handle.

[TGJB]

I didn\'t hint, I said directly that  the filly going wrong was predictable and that I had tried to do something about it back in March (only time I have ever tried to do that with a horse I\'m not involved with). I told you not to go there because going down that road WOULD bring the connections into it, since you had made clear months ago that you have some relationship with Porter. I didn\'t respond to jbelfior and I\'m STILL trying to leave them out of it-- you won\'t leave it alone.

[Silver Charm]

Thought the interview was interesting.

I hope Moss takes some serious heat for what he said but I hope he sticks to his guns and stands by his words. This goes with the territory.

I do have one question while everyone is now proclaiming Synthetics to be the savior. What Sales Ring do most of the more expensive horses get Sold through (See Browns comments in WSJ) and who is behind the push for Synthetic?

Answer: Keeneland.

Now read John T. Wards quotes. Is Synthetic a solution for keeping horses sounder longer or an opportunity to sell and race more unsound horses sold by whom?

Now think about what I just said and what Moss said. This can go either way. And the recent trend in America as he said is to hatch and race more medication required horses year after year.

A more forgiving surface will only abort that briefly..........

[fkach]

I don\'t think Moss\'s view about synthetics was one of strong approval. I think he was suggesting that the move to synthetics at least demonstrates that the industry is taking the safety of the horses seriously.

I also think it\'s a poor solution. It reminds me a real lot of what politicans do when faced with tough choices. They avoid dealing with the core problems by pushing them out into the future.

I had a brief conversation with one highly respected handicapper/author about the CD surface that day. I was trying to find out if there was any moisture in the track during the Derby even though it was rated fast (looking for horses that may have run subpar because of the misclassification of the track condition...Colonel John???). He said the track had been squeezed down to a thin layer of slightly moist cushion like a hard country dirt road. I don\'t know if that had any impact on the filly, but he did make another point. Dealing with moisture in dirt tracks can lead them to becoming rock hard. A well maintained sythetic surface does not need major adjustments. The water flows right through. (of course we have since found out it\'s not always as easy as that)

[sighthound]

They did water the track right before the Derby.

[sighthound]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/94302.html

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Eight Belles,

I\'m in your corner on this one. Uncle Buck posted an ESPN opinion by Randy Moss and I thought he hit part of it on the head.

All race day medications need banned, if a horse hurts too much without them, that horse is too ouchy to race. If a horse feels pain he\'ll shut himself down. We can\'t have race day medications pushing ouchy horses forward. Right now these medications cover the horses inherent weaknesses and they go off to stud and genetically pass on their afflictions. First and foremost we need to improve the breed and to do that we have to ban race day medications. Zero tolerance for everything. In doing so handicappers won\'t have to factor drug move ups. That would be very positive.

Regarding Eight Belles her two year old form was nice but not enough to say she was doing too much. She came together nicely as a 3YO and but for an outstanding performance would be Derby Champion.

I finally saw the replay. She went bad in her right fore and reached awkwardly with her left as she tried to break her fall. It may be that she was genetically flawed in both ankles, but I think they ought to look most closely at the right.

This horse with her series of races didn\'t fit the Sheet Gurus theory on how to win a big race. I don\'t buy their theory. She, along with Big Brown, pretty much blew \"too much, too soon\" out of the water.

My personal opinion is that the Sheet Gurus ought to stick to betting and private sale buying. The reason I say that is their \"technique\" is to race lightly, space and run Huge. That technique with the modern medicated Ouchiness of the breed contributes to breakdowns, rather than prevents them.

They don\'t seem to understand this yet.

She was special. Man that filly could run.

Eight Belles Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jbelfior Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > TGJB said that \"she is coming off four huge
> > efforts, all of which will eventually take its
> > toll.\"   How prophetic!!
> >
> > If anyone wants to go after anyone in this
> matter,
> > how about starting and ending with whomever
> made
> > the decision to run a filly 9 times in 8 months
> > without as much as a 30 day break in between.  
> >
> >
> > Good Luck,
> > Joe B.
>
> Horses are individuals, Joe.  While others were
> running up at Saratoga last summer or at Churchill
> last spring, she\'d yet to start.  Was it harder
> for her to be running in maidens and allowances
> late last year than it was for those who were
> running in stakes and the Breeders\' Cup?
>
> Be careful about wanting horses to take long
> breaks.  How much of an eye do you keep on
> research?  A horse who has more than a 2-month
> break are at 10 times more likely to suffer a
> catastrophic breakdown upon their return than
> those who stay in training.  With each passing
> week and short breeze, that figure drops to 6
> times then 4 times then 2 times more likely to
> suffer breakdown until they\'re finally back where
> they\'re at no greater risk than the horse who
> remaining in training.  Their bones need the
> stress to remodel and strengthen.
>
> It doesn\'t take a genius, however, to know that
> you have to expect the unexpected with an
> Unbridled\'s Song.  One day they\'re fine, and the
> next day they snap -- unless they\'re so weak all
> along that they have problems all along.  But what
> is a trainer supposed to do if a horse, even an
> UBS, hasn\'t had the first thing wrong?  Don\'t
> train, just because?  UBSs have problems because
> they\'re big and they\'re fast, and they\'re
> soft-boned.  You take your time, watch for
> problems, react to problems, and just do the best
> you can.  
>
> Don\'t be blaming the trainer.  Trainers just do
> the best they can with the horses they\'re given.
> Racing needs to take a look at breeding, track
> surfaces, and better injury detection methods.

[BB]

So, it\'s the spacing that\'s to blame, eh, Chalk? Should have run her back in the Lexington on a week\'s rest to toughen her up some for the big dance, is that it?

You never know when to shut up, we all know that. We also know that horses are either your dearest loves or your mortal enemies and there is something sick and pathological in that. I was going to lay off the obvious replies when I saw that post you wrote where you said (paraphrasing) you could finally understand why all your drivel about Barbaro becoming \"unglued\" actually bothered people, because it seemed that you really loved Belles and I had sympathy for you.

But, obviously, you are through mourning now, and it\'s back to all about CTMAC. Because you don\'t give a crap about Belles except how she reflects upon you. So, let us turn reality upside down. Let us avoid any sense of rational thought. Instead, let us ignore the fact that a super-fast 3yo filly with a slowish 2yo foundation runs four extremely fast ones going into the Kentucky Derby and it is the spacing that killed her. You really just can\'t stand the fact that she met the same end as your mortal enemy Barbaro. That doesn\'t reflect well on the glory of CTMAC, that guy who is so great picking the Derby winner and who - oh yeah - is a sick puppy with a borderline personality.

[jimbo66]

All kinds of theories on why Eight Belles broke down.  I don\'t know that the autopsy will shed any light on what happened, but probably not.  

However, if you look at the theories as to why she broke down, such as:
1.  over medication of today\'s horses
2.  breeding changing the species to be more speed oriented, than stamina
3.  dirt surfaces being unsafe or at least less safe than synthetic
4.  fillies shouln\'t run against the colts
5.  The lack of spacing of her races off of fast efforts

Sheet purists on this board, the host included, may not like it, but #5 is probably the LEAST LIKELY reason to be accepted by the mainstream public and thus by the racing bureaucracy.  As you can tell by the comments about Denis of Cork with regards to them making a \"poor decision\" based on \"sheets logic\", people don\'t get and/or don\'t believe in some of the theories of sheets players.  And how/why can/should the casual fan believe it?  The horses of yesteryear raced more frequently and with less spacing and there weren\'t these problems.  Try telling the casual fan that her two year old top was slow, so she overdeveloped at 3, and that combined with the relatively short spacing of her 3 year old races all made Saturday\'s tragedy foreseeable and preventable.  It doesn\'t make sense to most people.  And it won\'t be accepted.

Jerry, I buy the product and believe in the figures, but predicting breakdowns comes across a bit as \"over the top\".  I remember Barbaro\'s sheet and it looked fine coming into the Derby.  He had nicely spaced races and solid improvement.  Of course, off the big Derby he had to come back in 2 weeks and repeat that performance, which made him vulnerable, but that is the case with all DERBY horses that run in the Preakness and that has been happening for 100 years.  Why was Barbaro\'s breakdown so much more foreseeable than anybody else potentially breaking down?  Big Brown\'s running lines are going to look MUCH MORE dangerous than Barbaro\'s, if his number comes in where most think it will.  ARe we now to say that Big Brown shouldn\'t run in the Preakness because he is likely to break down?  Should we move the Preakness out a few weeks and then the Belmont 5 weeks from that date so we can \"space\" the races out better and have the horses safer?  Who is gonig to go for that?

It would seem to me that the more likely reasons for the breakdowns are a combination of the overmedication of today\'s horses and the breeding emphasis on speed combining to make the breed as a whole more fragile, and thus some elements, like short rest, make this risk exacerbated.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I am over it now.

If you want to obsess with it, that\'s your prerogative.

If you want to support the status quo, that is your prerogative too.

If you don\'t understand the inherent weakness in their argument, I hope others understand that it\'s time to change the game. It\'s time to improve the breed, to race often and race long, and remove drugs of any kind.

It\'s time to go back, to get better.

I won on both breakdowns though don\'t consider them analogous. Barbaro was the Prototype for the Gurus, Eight Belles Anathema to them. I am simply the best Derby Handicapper there has ever been. There\'s a reason for that, even if I didn\'t cash that Super at 30-1.





BB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So, it\'s the spacing that\'s to blame, eh, Chalk?
> Should have run her back in the Lexington on a
> week\'s rest to toughen her up some for the big
> dance, is that it?
>
> You never know when to shut up, we all know that.
> We also know that horses are either your dearest
> loves or your mortal enemies and there is
> something sick and pathological in that. I was
> going to lay off the obvious replies when I saw
> that post you wrote where you said (paraphrasing)
> you could finally understand why all your drivel
> about Barbaro becoming \"unglued\" actually bothered
> people, because it seemed that you really loved
> Belles and I had sympathy for you.
>
> But, obviously, you are through mourning now, and
> it\'s back to all about CTMAC. Because you don\'t
> give a crap about Belles except how she reflects
> upon you. So, let us turn reality upside down. Let
> us avoid any sense of rational thought. Instead,
> let us ignore the fact that a super-fast 3yo filly
> with a slowish 2yo foundation runs four extremely
> fast ones going into the Kentucky Derby and it is
> the spacing that killed her. You really just can\'t
> stand the fact that she met the same end as your
> mortal enemy Barbaro. That doesn\'t reflect well on
> the glory of CTMAC, that guy who is so great
> picking the Derby winner and who - oh yeah - is a
> sick puppy with a borderline personality.

[Rick B.]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am simply the best Derby Handicapper there has ever been.

What a pathetic, desperate cry for attention -- hopefully, grounds for being banned from the forum. (I can hope, can\'t I?)

[girly]

NYT Editorial

I\'m not sure what his point is except to fan the fire-or does he mean to say that horses should not be raced until they are mature adults? Or that breeding practices need to change? Even if he has a point, it sounds ugly!! It would be better to have an op-ed piece by someone who knows what they are talking about-TGJB please do one!!


NEW YORK TIMES
Another Horse-Racing Horror

Published: May 6, 2008
There is no reason why a race of one-and-a-quarter miles should be a death sentence for a horse, as it was on Saturday for the 3-year-old filly, Eight Belles. She was euthanized after breaking both front ankles immediately after coming in second in the Kentucky Derby.

 The racing industry has claimed, as it always does after such a horrifying incident, that racing young thoroughbreds isn't all that dangerous to their well-being. But the nature of racing and breeding has changed over the years. Good horses, whose careers often begin and end before their bones are fully mature, are racing less often than they used to, which means they only need enough endurance to last a few races. That makes it all the easier to breed for the lightness of build — and the fragility — that Eight Belles showed.

There are, of course, owners and trainers who love thoroughbreds for themselves and for their ability to perform on the racetrack, which is a reasonable test of sound breeding. But the real race increasingly seems to be to capitalize on a horse's success — to move a horse through its career as quickly as possible. The sums involved are immense, so much so that the horses seem more like financial vehicles than animals with an existence of their own. The life of the money comes to seem just as important as the life of the horse.

How beautiful a galloping thoroughbred can be — everyone who watched the Derby can attest. But we also got to witness just how narrow the margin is between beauty and tragedy. It is exactly as narrow — and only as sure — as the bones in a horse's legs. The first rule of racing must be the welfare of these horses. Nothing else is acceptable.

[magicnight]

\"It\'s time to improve the breed, to race often and race long, and remove drugs of any kind.\"

I don\'t disagree with any of that. But, where does that tie in with \"spacing kills\"? That\'s like taking 1,000 people with brain tumors, finding out they all had MRIs, then claiming it was the MRI that killed \'em when they keel over.

If you want to make racing safer tomorrow, eliminate race day medication and add a mile to every race. Then you can get back to improving the breed.