Last and Next to Last

[Silver Charm]

Another rousing Derby finish for the winners of the BG

The Keeneland and Ky Poly Preps are now meaningless disasters

[JR]

And Street Sense?

[Silver Charm]

Street Sense finished where?? in the BG last year against what??

He ran against a basket of rotten tomatos and almost did not hit the board and was one of the top 3 or 4 horses in training last year.

Denis of Cork barely got in the race because the septic tank residue also has to be added to the menu on Derby Day.

[MonmouthGuy]

Street Sense had been successful on dirt.  Adriano, Monba and Cowboy Cal had never run a lick on dirt in graded stakes races and shouldn\'t gave qualified for the KD.

[JR]

The original point being made was that using the BG and other Poly track races as prep races for the Derby was a flop and would be history. The fact is, Street Sense used Poly preps for both his BC Juv win and his KY Derby win. In fact, a lot of good trainers were sold on the idea and tried to use that same angle this year. You can argue that it didn\'t work but I think it is premature to say it\'ll be abandoned altogether. I believe a number of horses who flopped on Poly were already going off form. And this discussion has nothing to do with horses who are strictly Poly horses.

[JR]

Seems to me his BG number last year wasn\'t that bad. It was a useful prep.

[JR]

And another thing. You might not like Poly. I don\'t. I won\'t bet Poly races. They\'re too unpredictable. But I will say this. The results on Poly aren\'t random and if you can figure out why some horses like it and others don\'t you\'ll have an edge you haven\'t had since you switched to figs.

[TreadHead]

I just have to laugh when anyone calls the Keeneland poly surface \"unpredictable\" given the fact that turf races there this year were easily more unpredictable than the poly races, with an even lower % of favorites winning.  

Yes, poly is more unpredictable than most established dirt tracks, but the level of racing at Keeneland is much different than it is anywhere else IMO, and that makes picking winners that much harder no matter the surface.  The only reason Keeneland used to be more \"predictable\" is the incredible rail/speed bias the old dirt track had.

As JB has already commented, some horses have big jumpups dirt to poly, and some do not.  The winner of that earlier stakes made a huge dirt jumpup moving from poly.  Perhaps there\'s a method to the madness, or perhaps there is not.  I am enjoying looking for the challenge and new angle, since whomever becomes the first to regularly figure it out is bound to be hitting some very nice prices.

I\'m fine with people griping about poly wagering, it takes more \"smart money\" out of the pools and leaves only the dumb money left to try to capture.  What I\'m not fine with are people who continue to try to ignore the facts that the poly surfaces are in fact much safer and try to say there are unclear results as part of the argument.

The Florida study that included most of the US (but not California) showed a reduction of about 2.0/1k on dirt to abuot 1.5/1k on poly.  And that study is horribly watered down with sub-standard dirt racing from junky tracks where the large majority of horses aren\'t running fast enough to stub a toenail, let alone sustain a catastrophic injury.

What\'s more relevant are the California stats that stand alone by themselves on what is, on average, much more talented and speedy runners, and their reduction is from over 3 to about 1.5.  Whether the true numbers overall show a reduction somewhere between 25-50%, it is a proven fact that the surfaces are much safer and anyone trying to throw questions around that point into the discussion are selfishly doing so to promote their own agenda of wanting to get back to what they consider \"more predictable\" racing.  Which is apparently more important than the saftey of the horses.

[Silver Charm]

You may have an edge wagering on these races or maybe not. This isn\'t the point.

The BG is no longer a Grade One event. It can\'t be with these types of horses winning them.

[TreadHead]

So you dont think Momba or Cowboy Cal have any sort of G1 future anywhere?  Or you just think only dirt races should qualify as G1?  CC\'s sheet sure looks like one that would compete well at G1 8f turf events and Momba could end up being competitive in the poly G1s.

[smalltimer]

JR,
One need look no farther than Street Sense, Hard Spun and Dominican last year, and then Adriano, Monba this year.
Those that continue to consider Kee Poly and TP Poly as the same surface are gonna get their pockets picked,if they play there.  They are two different surfaces, they each play differently.
The Cal Cushion, Pro Ride and Tapeta are all similar, yet different from each other.
I could give a perfect illustration, but, then some of the guys would wanna jump on my case and cite generalities.
I\'m not going to post the numbers in here, there are too many naysayers regarding the topic.
Seems like, rather than being a little open-minded, all they wanna do is bash somebody, while at the same time complaining the surface(s) drive \'em crazy.

[fkach]

This is one of the issues I and others have brought up repeatedly.

The winners of the Bluegrass, SA Derby, Pacific Classic etc..... may be Grade 1 horses, but they are not always Grade 1 \"dirt\" horses. So when it comes time to settle the Eclipse Awards and other matters related to breeding value, yearling value etc... we are somewhere in the Twilight Zone.

If 5 years from now almost everyone is racing on synthetic, the value of horses that produce great dirt horses but lousy synthetic runners is going to fall through the floor and vice versa (offspring also). If on the other hand, synthetic goes away we are back where we started. This is a major mess. There is a major wealth transfer under way but I suspect many owners and breeders are not quite aware they are making and/or losing small fortunes right now.

[fkach]

I agree with this. I think handicappers might be able to overcome this kind of thing with superior insights, but it adds a great deal of complexity to understanding the values of the horses.

[MonmouthGuy]

I guess I am making a different argument. I have no problem with horses prepping on poly for stamina, training purposes.  What I do have a problem with is pure poly horses that have no graded stakes earnings on dirt, using graded stakes earnings earned on poly to keep more deserving horses out, even though they have no business running in the KD.

[smalltimer]

kfach,
I think you are exactly right.
Last year in the BC at Monmouth, if I\'m not mistaken the top 5 finishers in the Juvenile all ran strictly on dirt during the year, exception being Kodiak Cowboy had 1 race at 4.5f at Kee.

Which now brings up an interesting point for this year\'s BC at Santa Anita on the artificial.  How many real dirt horses are gonna get the job done on that surface?

I\'ve been taking preparatory steps for the BC since it was announced.  If I get my rear end kicked in October, it\'ll be my own fault.