Derby - let's get to it

[shanahan]

The silence of the media around Smooth Air\'s chances or any updates on his works are puzzling.  I\'m sticking with him as my key horse for the Roses.  He\'s 13th on the money list, yet I almost wonder if he\'s been declared from it and I missed it.  I thought he ran extremely well in the FL Derby, very professional...let\'s get to it!

[richiebee]

Shanno-

After a pokey mile work (1:41), SA came back and worked 7f in 1:25 and will be
shipped to Churchill...

The Downey Profile gives a fairly comprehensive day to day description of the
various Derby contenders\' comings and goings.

The last Calder based horse to win the Derby was...?

[fkach]

How does Smooth Air\'s pedigree look in terms of getting 10F?

He ran a very good race in the FD, but originally he looked more like a sprinter that was trying to stretch out.

[Upper Nile]

The \'pokey\' 1:41 mile work was 5-6 seconds faster then all other 1m works that day. I\'m all smiles. Regardless of the outcome I count my future wager in pool 1 and pool 2 on Smooth Air the wisest wager I\'ve ever made. A pair of 3\'s for a 2yo top. Got right back to the top 1st out at 3. Got the bounce out of the way in the Sam F. Davis, and then runs a new top that is good enough to be right there. I Don\'t see a bouce on the horizon either because he paired his previous top at 2 and the new top is only a few points better than the 2yo top.

[Ntheiroff]

L\'il E Tee

[congaree1]

I have a funny feeling, Smooth Air will be a BIG underlay, on the first Saturday in May.

[Michael D.]

my futures pick is getting a bit of press. picked up Borel. still needs a defection or two though.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44710

[big18741]

Michael D. Wrote:
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> my futures pick is getting a bit of press. picked
> up Borel. still needs a defection or two though.
>
> http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44710

Likes the surface.Needs an honest to hot pace to run at.Faster than most in the field if he gets back to the Southwest.


Proud Spell
Eight Belles
Massive Drama
Behindatthebar

Are in the field if they want to go.

Jones could cross enter both fillies.Zayat owns Massive Drama,Z Fortune and Z Humor.He might use Massive Drama as a rabbit or enter him and scratch.Behindatthebar doesn\'t sound likely.

Big Truck and Bob Black Jack are ahead of Denis on earnings.

Denis currently sitting at 23rd assuming Salute the Sarge doesn\'t enter.

If there are no surprise defections he still needs 3 of the above not to enter.

Good Luck.He seems kind of live.

[covelj70]

I heard from the folks down in Louisville that Bob Black Jack\'s connections are wavering as to whether to enter.  They are a small outfit and the 50k entry fee has them thinking twice so you may get a defection there.

Only issue with this though is that the pace in this race is fading fast if BBJ isnt\' running and with the injury to War Pass.

[big18741]

Massive Drama makes the pace real hot.

On the other hand that one entering could exclude Denis of Cork.

[TGJB]

I don\'t know how I\'m going to play the Derby yet, it\'s an interesting betting race, and I don\'t know what I\'m going to do with DOC. But that aside, I really hope he runs well just to stick it to those in the press (and elsewhere) who thought the connections made a mistake by giving the horse extra time after his big top. Yeah, he bounced in Illinois-- he was supposed to. If they ran him back quicker, he might have bounced worse, and not come out of the race okay. In the long run, that extra 3 weeks may have saved this horse\'s career, or at least his 3yo season.

The racing year doesn\'t end the first Saturday in May. It begins then.

Anybody know if the Win Star horses will be coupled?

[big18741]

Jerry

I\'m almost positive they go as seperate betting interests in the Derby.The last time they had entries was the High Yield year-there was a 3 or more horse entry that sucked up a bunch of money.

I e-mailed Haskin regarding DOC getting in.

He has Massive Drama going in the Woody Stevens Belmont Day.

Behindatthebar in the Preakness pending Sanan/Tap consult.

Didn\'t think both Jones fillies would cross enter.

Said the word is-Churchill told DOC\'s trainer he was in.

[BitPlayer]

Note that Zayat also has Halo Najib, who is right behind DOC on the graded earnings list.

[fkach]

If I was considering betting Denis of Cork I would be a lot more worried about whether he has enough ability to win and whether he\'ll get enough pace to run at in the Derby (now that War Pass is out) than his performance in the Illinois Derby.

The Ill Derby is a total toss. The pace came up slow and the horses went 1-2-3-4-5 right around the track.

http://www.drf.com/row/charts/08HAWillinoisderby_chart.pdf

The problem is that in his fast race he had a perfect pace setup for his big late run.

http://www.drf.com/row/charts/08OPsouthwest_chart.pdf

He may never have been as good as he looked off that race. He\'s a nice horse, but IMO he\'s very misunderstood at present. He\'s not as good as he looks and not as bad as he looks all at the same time. ;-)

[EJXD2]

TGJB Wrote:
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> I really hope he runs well just to stick it to those in the press (and
> elsewhere) who thought the connections made a mistake by giving the horse
> extra time after his big top. Yeah, he bounced in Illinois-- he was supposed
> to. If they ran him back quicker, he might have bounced worse, and not come out > of the race okay. In the long run, that extra 3 weeks may have saved this
> horse\'s career, or at least his 3yo season.
>
It\'s this type of thinking that really has to have you appreciating a horse like Smarty Jones, no?

 
> Anybody know if the Win Star horses will be coupled?
>
With very rare exceptions, there are no coupled entries in Grade 1 races in Kentucky

EdD