Cal Expo(sed)?

[richiebee]

Sierra Sunset in the Southwest Stakes and Rebel Stakes at OP.

Gayego in the Arkansas Derby.

Behindatthebar in today\'s Lexington.

Cal colts have fared pretty well when moving East, no?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

NasRichullah,

Maybe but for the Lexington. Even Plech doesn\'t appear interested in sending Behindatthebar to the Derby.

I passed with glee, but the Lexington was just your typical whacky Poly race.

richiebee Wrote:
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> Sierra Sunset in the Southwest Stakes and Rebel
> Stakes at OP.
>
> Gayego in the Arkansas Derby.
>
> Behindatthebar in today\'s Lexington.
>
> Cal colts have fared pretty well when moving East,
> no?

[richiebee]

Chuckle\'s Halo:

I was not implying that any of the colts mentioned in the post are Derby worthy.

I was implying that the Cal 3YO crop may have been underestimated.

And that if Kernel John (not to be mistaken with Kerwin John) handles the
surface switch, he could bear watching.

[P-Dub]

richiebee Wrote:
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> Chuckle\'s Halo:

> I was implying that the Cal 3YO crop may have been
> underestimated.
 
And that is supposed to be a surprise around these parts??  Lol.  You East Coast guys do this all the time. Most years a Cal horse hits the exotics and they also win there fair share too. Its also why they pay so well.

[richiebee]

P-Dub:

If you are not too busy next week, I think you should go over and visit Frank
Stronach. There should be two items on your agenda:

1) A proposal for a \"Sunshine Millions\" themed event where horses stabled in
California race against horses from the other 49 states and the rest of the
world. A good working title for the series: The Dangerfield (we dont get no
respect) Millions.

2) Tell Frank he can become the hero of the racing world (though this may not
necessarily prevent Magna Entertainment Corporation stock from being delisted)
if he commits an act of defiance and reinstalls a dirt surface at Santa
Anita without waiting for the CHRB to tell him its OK to do so. Wise guy
gamblers will come up with an admiring new nickname for the man who saved
the next 2 Breeders Cups from being run on synthetic.

They\'ll call him \"Frankie Dirt\".

[P-Dub]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub:
>
> If you are not too busy next week, I think you
> should go over and visit Frank
> Stronach. There should be two items on your
> agenda:
>
> 1) A proposal for a \"Sunshine Millions\" themed
> event where horses stabled in
> California race against horses from the other 49
> states and the rest of the
> world. A good working title for the series: The
> Dangerfield (we dont get no
> respect) Millions.
>
> 2) Tell Frank he can become the hero of the racing
> world (though this may not
> necessarily prevent Magna Entertainment
> Corporation stock from being delisted)
> if he commits an act of defiance and reinstalls a
> dirt surface at Santa
> Anita without waiting for the CHRB to tell him its
> OK to do so. Wise guy
> gamblers will come up with an admiring new
> nickname for the man who saved
> the next 2 Breeders Cups from being run on
> synthetic.
>
> They\'ll call him \"Frankie Dirt\".


RB,

They do race against against the other horses.  Something called the Breeders\' Cup??  Maybe you\'ve heard of it. I understand they offer \"Millions\" in purse money too. Also, we were talking specifically about the Kentucky Derby.  Your sarcasm aside, the facts point to California horses more than holding their own on a yearly basis. Check the charts and the prices. Find me another circuit where you find horses hitting the board/winning at the prices Cal horses do.  BTW, the lack of respect isn\'t universal.  

Like most handicappers, I prefer dirt surfaces. But I am not going to whine about it in every post I make, unlike others around here (thats not directed at you). I haven\'t seen this much bitching and moaning over something out of people\'s control since I dealt my last hand of poker. Some of you don\'t like it, we get it, move on already. I wouldn\'t be surprised if Santa Anita did indeed go back to dirt, especially considering the fact they are hosting the next 2 Breeders\' Cups.

Regarding Big Brown: This horse has had 3 lifetime starts. Three.  Yet,  people are willing to take a short price on a horse with little foundation to run 1 1/4 miles.  Many handicappers read the PAST PERFORMANCES.  They judge future performances based on what they have seen previously. And what we have seen every year is that lightly raced horses, generally speaking, have trouble in this race.

Its obvious that this horse is very talented. I\'m not disputing that. But he\'s run twice on dirt: first dirt start he beats a 5 horse field, second dirt start he wires the field (from a difficult post although JB has indicated he had sufficient speed to negate this). Never has he faced any real adversity such as: pace pressure, dirt kicked in his face, bumping, wide trip, 150,000 screaming fans.  Not to mention running a ridiculously fast figure that some feel may have knocked him out. If some want to take 2 or 3-1 then go ahead. I wouldn\'t be surprised if he\'s off the board.

[MonmouthGuy]

Good point.


Haskin and Beyer are still counting their money from the AP Warrior, Brother Derek, Point Determined, Bob and John superfecta that emerged from the \"strongest California crop in years.\"

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

P-Dub Wrote:
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. I
> wouldn\'t be surprised if he\'s off the board.

I think thats the play. Factor BJB the winner or play him to miss the board entirely.

[fkach]

CA horses are generally evaluated based on the figures they run relative to horses in the east. If the cushion figures tend to be more compressed than dirt figures (at the top and bottom) because of the slower average paces, then horses at the top in CA would tend to outperform their figures when they switch to dirt (assuming they have equal ability on both surfaces).

The Lexington was a little different in that it wasn\'t a switch from cushion to dirt. It was cushion to poly. Had both Salute the Sarge and Behindatthebar run big races I think it would have said more about the quality of the horses. But let\'s face it, it\'s not entirely unusual for a lightly raced Pletcher horse to step up and win a stakes race for 3YOs at this time of year. Yesterday, I actually played both CA horses to win and boxed them. But I didn\'t play the winner because I thought he was the best horse or because I thought the quality out in CA was good. I bet him because I hated a few of the short priced horses and thought he was one of the more likely horses to step up.

[Flighted Iron]

Please tell me when any of the horses entered in the derby have had prior experience to the 150,000 screaming fans? Wide trip? Do you honestly see this
one being very wide at any point and with his natural speed how much kickback and
bumping will he reasonably encounter? I am in agreement for the most part with
the most likely bounce from his previous.Question is:How big is the bounce?

[P-Dub]

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Good point.
>
>
> Haskin and Beyer are still counting their money
> from the AP Warrior, Brother Derek, Point
> Determined, Bob and John superfecta that emerged
> from the \"strongest California crop in years.\"


If you\'re trying to be an idiot, you did it.  Well done.

So you cherrypick one year and find California horses that finished off the board, then throw in some unsubstatiated quote to prove it.  Excellent work Sherlock.

I suppose that EVERY talented horse from your neck of the woods has run spectacularly, no??

Again, look at the charts over the past 10 or so years.  You will find many California horses that won or hit the board. Many at nice prices.  Instead of being a wiseass and picking just last year, look it up.

2005-Giacomo 1st
2004-Imperialism 3rd
2003- Atswhatimtalkinabout 4th
2001- Congaree 3rd
2000- Fusaichi Pegasus 1st
1999 - Charismatic 1st, Prime Timber 4th
1998 - Real Quiet 1st, Indian Charlie 3rd
1997 - Silver Charm 1st, Free House 3rd
1996 - Cavonnier 2nd

Yeah, these California horses are just terrible.  Throw them all out.

[P-Dub]

Flighted Iron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Please tell me when any of the horses entered in
> the derby have had prior experience to the 150,000
> screaming fans? Wide trip? Do you honestly see
> this
> one being very wide at any point and with his
> natural speed how much kickback and
> bumping will he reasonably encounter? I am in
> agreement for the most part with
> the most likely bounce from his previous.Question
> is:How big is the bounce?


Iron,
If he\'s drawn outside and lays just off the leaders,  he\'ll be wide.  If he\'s drawn down inside and isn\'t gunned for the lead or possibly breaks a little slow,  he\'ll get dirt in his face. In a 20 horse field, I don\'t care how much speed you have, there\'s a better than average chance you\'ll get knocked around a little out of the gate.

Regarding the size of the crowd,  his relative inexperience makes this one more small thing to overcome. Other top contenders have raced before large crowds more than once. Its a small thing among many items.

If things go perfectly, then maybe these things won\'t matter.  But as we\'ve all seen before,  things don\'t always go as planned.  Some horses can overcome these things and prior experience dealing with them can only help in that regard.

For those of you in love with Big Brown, by all means take the $7 mutuel and unload on him.  Its just that with all the talk about value this and value that, this horse doesn\'t seem to fit the bill. I\'ve collected many $7 mutuels,  they just didn\'t have as many question marks as this one does.  Good luck.

[Flighted Iron]

P-Dub,

  The only if I see legit in your smattering of them is the \"knocked around a bit
at the start\". Yes,we don\'t know how he\'ll handle a bump or two,but I\'ll give him
the benefit of the doubt that it will hardly be an afterthought. Post position
imo will be of no consequence.He\'s demonstrated a turn of foot unlike anything
Derby bound.Imo he\'ll be no worse than the 2 path at the first bend and likewise
at the far one.Regression is the question.He doesn\'t have to win,but I feel he\'s
a contender for the exotics.I feel it\'s reasonable for him to react 3 points in
reverse(approx fig neg 1/2).Imo a neg 1/2 from the 2 path is competitve with
this bunch.BB is 1 of the 7 contenders I have(currently).Still ingesting as much
info as possible.

Good Luck

[P-Dub]

Flighted Iron Wrote:
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.Regression is the question.He
> doesn\'t have to win,but I feel he\'s
> a contender for the exotics.I feel it\'s reasonable
> for him to react 3 points in
> reverse(approx fig neg 1/2).Imo a neg 1/2 from the
> 2 path is competitve with
> this bunch.BB is 1 of the 7 contenders I
> have(currently).Still ingesting as much
> info as possible.
>
> Good Luck


Thanks for stating the obvious. A neg 1/2 from the 2 path is competitive. A contender for the exotics.  Really??  Apparently some of you think he\'s going to waltz out of the gate, go to the lead and never look back. Maybe he will, I\'ll be interested to read how you make your wagers before the race. He\'s off my tickets.  You seem pretty sensitive regarding BB, I\'ll lay off for now.

[richiebee]

P- Dub:

As much as I hate to agree with a man who sometimes seems to take things too
seriously, I also will not be drinking from the Big Brown jug of Kool Aid which
will be passed around on Derby Day.

I will be interested to read what trainer\'s past and present have to say about
the Big Brown and his foundation (or lack thereof); in my opinion he becomes
quite vulnerable at the 1/8th pole no matter what kind of trip he works out.

\"Kernel\" John has been working well and if he turns in a decent CD work he could
be second or third favored at odds of 6-1 or less, no bargain given his lack of
experience on dirt; still he will be played on my multiple race and Oaks/Derby
double tickets.

A longer price will be Cool Coal Man, who was good in the Fountain of Youth,
bad in the Blue Grass,but had a good race at CD as a 2YO.

Looking forward to the \"advance edition\" of the TGs so the real studying can begin.