Synthetics

[TGJB]

So I\'ve done a bunch of figures over the last few weeks for horses going from synthetics to dirt, and here\'s what I know-- nothing.

The horses have mostly been coming from California (that and Turfway are the only ones running over synth over the winter). Several of the ones switching to dirt have jumped way up. Some have not.

The ones going from Cal synth or turf to Kee synth or turf have run right to their figures-- if there has been a jump-up I\'ve missed it. That\'s one reason I don\'t think it\'s the California figures in general-- the other is the horses that have gone the other way over the last few years, some of which I\'ve been responsible for (Even The Score, Super Frolic, Student Couincil, Pinata) have run to their numbers in California. Also, lots of Calder horses have run much faster once they got to California.

All of which means that what we have on our hands is a guessing game, as Beyer points out in a column in Wednesday\'s DRF. A lot of people here have posted a lot of theories, and for all I know one or more could be right. But I\'m pretty convinced that a) the figures themselves are right, and b) that by itself is of limited usefulness in dealing with the surface switches.

[covelj70]

JB, I think Limestone Edge popped from about a 10 to what I would guess was about a 5 going from SA to Keenland over the weekend in the Nx1 prior to the Blue Grass on Sat.

I know one race doesn\'t mean much and there could have been other factors but that was one horse that I noticed jumped up.

[smalltimer]

Guys,
Determining which horses will or won\'t move up on surface changes is not as big a mystery as you think.  Without insulting anyone\'s intelligence, distances, race types, surfaces all change, but the one thing that never changes is a horse\'s pedigree.  I think many handicappers have had it handed to them on the Poly, Cushion, Pro Ride and Tapeta because of a variety of reasons, but the #1 reason is simply \"assuming\" certain high profile sires will throw good runners on any type surface.  Nothing could be farther from the truth.
Let me profile some \"high profile\" sires with some statistics and then you can draw your own conclusions.

Honour and Glory on Cushion at Santa Anita (Oak Tree) meet  1 for 10;
Cee\'s Tizzy 0 for 20;  Tribal Rule 0 for 18.
At Hollywood, Devil His Due 0 for 14; Touch Gold 1 for 24; Menifee 1 for 21;
On Poly, Deputy Minister 9 for 127; Unreal Zeal 2 for 74.
On Cushion only, Cryptoclearance 0 for 19; Devil His Due (repeater) 0 for 17; Dixieland Band 0 for 15; Menifee (repeater) 1 for 21; Real Quiet 0 for 16; Touch Gold (repeater) 1 for 28.

Let me illustrate one sire in particular.  Relaunch.  He has son\'s like Cee\'s Tizzy, Honour and Glory, Skywalker, Bertrando and Bright Launch.  Most of this group are well respected, in most cases, guys are gonna assume they can run a little based on their pedigree.  The grandsons of Relaunch (Tiznow, Put It Back, Officer) are terrific Poly running producers.  They stink on Cushion.  
The sons of Relaunch are very good at Cushion, and the grandsons of Relaunch are especially good at producing Poly runners.  
Generally, you will find that mares out of Bertrando and Skywalker are excellent  on all artificial surfaces, but especially on Cushion.
For those who are unwilling to recognize the differences, it\'s gonna be impossible for them to ever get a \"handle\" on how a horse \"might\" run first time on a different artificial surface.
As I indicated earlier, most of the high profile sires are gonna eat your lunch when you are playing them on the assumption they produce a runner on all artificial surfaces.
Then you come to the Tapeta surface. Now, in my opinion, this one is pretty easy to figure because, with all due respect, your having to outrun horses at the Tapeta track on the east and Golden Gate on the west, without question, a lesser quality group of animals than you\'re going to see at Keeneland or Arlington or Southern California.
There are a handful of spectacular sires for the Tapeta surface, but I\'d rather not disclose who they are in an open forum or my advantage takes a huge hit.  
I would be willing to disclose a couple of them to Mr. Brown, if he were willing to consider my suggestion regarding artificials.
I decided a couple years ago rather than to try to fight this unknown monster, i.e. artificial surfaces, I would dedicate 12 hours a day for several months and really get a handle on it.  At this point, I\'m very confident in which horses are subject to liking the surfaces. Yet, as we all know, the advantage of a particular pedigree goes out the window without the proper intent of the connections.  A well-bred Poly horse may not have any talent, and that\'s out of our control.
Please, please understand that Cushion, Tapeta and Pro Ride are \"similar\" in the types sires that produce those type runners.  Polytrack is a completely different surface from any other type.  Comparing Polytrack to the other artificial surfaces is like trying to compare regular dirt to turf, there is little resemblance, although, there are many horses that can crossover and have success.  There will always be exceptions, as horseplayers, we all accept that premise.  There is no assurance a horse moving from Cushion to Tapeta will run better, or vise versa.  There is no assurance a horse moving from Cushion will run good on Poly.  It is ALL in the pedigree.  
Sorry for the long post.  I\'ll be happy to elaborate further, if there\'s interest.

[miff]

JB,

We had a rather lively exchange on this subject several monthe ago. Without knowing, perhaps, you seem to confirm some of what I feel, i.e some dirt horses  are not running as fast on Cali synth, and I am not speaking about surface preference.If a true dirt horse cannot run it\'s normal PERFORMANCE fig on turf, then why can a true dirt horse run his  normal fig on synt?  Synth is an entirely different surface, different shoes, kick back, landing, planting very different, much like turf.Does is make sense that a dirt horse just overcomes all that and runs his normal fig.


I believe that true dirt horses run slower on synth, as they mostly do on  turf, from a PERFORMANCE FIGURE standpoint.No science, just my opinion.I\'m not as certain as you that the horses are running just as fast on synth as they do on dirt, notwithstanding your comments on the horses you manage.I do not have confidence that figs are transerable from synth/poly to dirt and vice versa.Toughest game in the world made tougher.

Not questioning your fig making prowess but I believe this is a deeper problem than originally thought.


Mike

[miff]

Smalltimer,

Nice post, Jim Quinn and others have some good data on this angle as does TG on the sheets. Of equal importance is running styles, i.e. early speed horses vs say deep closers.On normal dirt tracks, a high percentage of all races are won by horses within 3-5 lenghts at the pace call, app 76% last time I checked.

On poly especially(lesser on synth) early speed is generally a disadvantage. Bias report data re running styles pre and post poly/synth shows an enormous shift to late runners on the non dirt tracks.

I believe there is something to the breeding angle but I am certain that almighty early speed is \"ill\" on artificial surfaces for the most part.


Mike

[belveondarockz]

hey miff i agree with what your are saying with tha performance of how the horse does from dirt to synthetic and how normal dirt horses usually run worse on synthetic but would an effort from dirt lets say an \"8\" to synthetic lets say a \"12\" back to dirt effort...wouldnt that horses pattern going into that dirt race from synthetic to dirt be effected?

[alm]

Let me repeat earlier posts, which may confirm you are on to something.

First of all, all mammals inherit the dominant aspect of their skeletal structure from one of their father\'s parents.

Second, the Equix folks have determined that stability on sloppy surfaces is negatively affected by the length of the hind leg tibias (inherited from the sire.)  The longer, the less stable.  Stability on grass is likely to be affected similarly.

There is, thinking along these lines, a distinct possibility that some sires will pass along a structure that excels on synth surfaces.  We already suspect that grass type runners do well on synth surfaces.  Why not believe there are differences from one synth to another?

There are no guarantees of anything and, if you stop and think about it, every sire has two parents, so he may possibly have two types of offspring in this regard.  Anomalies will be noticed in ANY sample.

Nevertheless, the patterns you have determined are likely to be meaningful.

[smalltimer]

But, Miff, I never mentioned early speed in any part of the submission.
If you just want a \"random\" thought on artificials, would you assume that a horse moving from Delmar with a 919\' stretch will run as good as that same horse at Keeneland where the stretch is over 1200\'?
I\'ve made no mention of \"early speed\", but there are some artificial horses out there that can get on the front end and wire the field.  But, that wasn\'t my point.
But, its all good.  I\'m not on here to cause problems, only to offer suggestions.

[Michael D.]

smalltimer,

I\'m a bit confused on the sons and grandsons of Relaunch. do the sons produce good cushion runners? you listed the stats of two, and they don\'t seem to be doing so well. and the grandsons? how has Tiznow done as a cushion sire?

thanks for the post.

[miff]

Small,

I understand you were only speaking about breeding, but remember some sires throw early gas and some do not. Would be nice to know what running styles these good poly sires are throwing.

Re stretch distances, I have found that longer stretches have little to do with horses wiring or not.

Mike

[smalltimer]

Alm, one need go no further than Monba for me to make my point.  He is out of an Easy Goer mare.  No doubt, this horse likes the Poly.
One of the top Poly sires anywhere is Unbridled Jet, out of Unbridled, by an Easy Goer Mare named Easy Summer.  
I\'d have zero hesitation in playing a debut maiden with that bloodlines on Poly assuming the horse had good conformation and the connections had a decent percentage in debut maidens.
If its not hard for handicappers to imagine that Empire Maker would be a top flight horse because he was out of the mare Toussad, why would it be difficult to add that same significance to a proven Poly producer?
People just took for granted that Empire Maker would be good, and he was.  
I\'m just throwing it out there.  Nobody has to accept it.

[smalltimer]

Miff, apparently I am speaking Greek in the room.
My point was, if a handicapper \"assumes\" a high percentage of Poly races are won off the pace, then why wouldn\'t a horse jump up with an additional 300\' to work with?

[TGJB]

For the record-- we supplied Bill Finley with a lot of data for a book he is writing (may even have come out already) about synth pedigrees.

All pedigree issues-- whether first turf, first synth (or even when buying a yearling), come down to a matter of percentages. From a betting point of view, first they have to handle it (percentages), then they have to be fast enough.

[miff]

Small,

No need to assume, speed is death on poly, generally speaking. My point was that on dirt, stretch length is not meaningful. It\'s makes common sense that a longer poly/synt stretch would benefit late runners, but I don\'t know that to be a fact. At Delmar last year,for example, front runners were hooked by the quarter pole and left for dead in raw times 3 seconds slower than norm for most distances.


Mike

[smalltimer]

Michael D.  
Thanks for the question.  In the last couple years, I\'ve charted and researched thousands and thousands of artificial surface races.  The conclusions that I\'ve arrived at are all documented from the beginning.
One of the strange things about artificial is the skipping a generation type thing where the son of a sire isn\'t below average on certain surfaces, but his offspring, rather it be fillies or colts, will jump up and be outstanding.
I\'d rather not get to involved today, because this is the first time I\'ve ever visited the room, and I don\'t wanna wear out my welcome the first day.
Having said that, if you are interested in pedigrees and the impact they have on race surface preferences, you can usually take a short cut and find either Secretariat, Buckpasser, Poker, or mares out of Clever Trick or Rahy and find a runner.