Race Shapes?

[Josephus]

For those of us that like to buy the hard copy TG, would you be kind enough to post a sample of your new product?  A \"Redboard Room\" version would be fine.

Thanks

[TGJB]

In about a week we\'ll be putting it out with the hardcover product and online for free for a while.

[TreadHead]

Hi Jerry,
I currently use (and perhaps others use) BRIS\'s pace figures as a way of attempting to gauge who has the ability to go to the front and where horses might be in general.  I\'m not sure if you are familiar with how they make these figures, I am really not.

Is it safe to assume that they most likely do not factor in all of the different things you guys are factoring in when making these figures, thus making yours more accurate?  They are just chopping up the time and not taking ground loss, weight, and variants into account?  I definitely like the idea and presentation of your product, just want to make sure I\'m understanding how it is superior to the tool I\'m using today.

[SoCalMan2]

Sorry if I am a dunderhead....but....are raceshapes currently available or are they to come out in the future?  Am looking for it for a race today if it is available (already purchased the figs for the race).

[BitPlayer]

TreadHead -

That\'s one of the problems I have with BRIS.  They are not very informative about what is and is not in their numbers.  If you go to the FAQ page about their pace figures, they give you some rudimentary information, and then tell you the figures are calculated using their \"proprietary techniques and algorithms.\"  They do say that the figures are adjusted for a variant.  Since BRIS doesn\'t incorporate ground loss or weight into their speed figures, it seems fair to assume they don\'t do so for their pace figures, but the issue is not discussed.

[TGJB]

Don\'t know the Bris product or what they take into account, but ours do take into account all those factors, plus a more accurate variant than others have, and wind, which most 9as far as I know) others don\'t account for.

We\'re going to be giving it away free starting some time next week for the major tracks, both on line and hardcopy. There are still some bugs in it (and we want to here from you when you see them, via email so it doesn\'t clutter up the board), but by the end of the free period this will be the best product of its kind.

[ajkreider]

Sorry to jump in here, but I was wondering if your figs take into account things like BB\'s weaving all over the lane in the Florida Derby.  He obviously ran farther running that way, but it seems like something difficult to measure.

[TGJB]

If you actually sit down and work out the ground loss for something like that it is very minor. No, we don\'t measure it.

[smalltimer]

TGJB,
I\'m well versed on the Bris methodology regarding pace figures and what type variants they use.  I\'m a complete novice on how you arrive at your figures.
I will say the Bris is a lot more indepth than what is being portrayed in here.
Regarding your Race Shapes product, I predict you will have to separate the Poly races from the synthetic tracks, as the synthetics are \"different\" than Poly.  Its actually unquestioned.
If your people have to ability to do a random test run as the Race Shape now stands, and then can go in and tweak the material to separate the Poly from the Cushion, Pro Ride and Tapeta, then you will get what you are looking for.  If Poly continues to be viewed as just another synthetic surface, the product will merely be good, but not great. Comparing all synthetics to Poly is like comparing turf to dirt.  It just plays different.
Just my opinion.

[TGJB]

This goes to the same issues that came up in your first lengthy email to me, where it was clear that you had not read the material that went with the data, since you didn\'t understand we were taking track speed into account.

The fact that poly has different characteristics than other tracks does not matter in terms of what we are doing here. What matters is how fast the surface is, and we measure that better than anybody else (there is a lot of material on this site that explains how, from the intro section to the \"Changing Track Speeds\" presentation in the archives to hundreds of posts on the subject).

Additionally, if you look at the race shapes presentation, you will also see that the adjusted quarter times for each horse\'s last 8 races are listed. The figures used in the graph represent an average of the horse\'s last 3 times, but the handicapper has the option of using other recent running lines instead if he thinks they will be more in line with what will happen today. This is, in fact, why we list the jockey for each race, which we don\'t do for our other data. In fact, a sophisticated handicapper like yourself could throw out the poly lines and just use the ones from dirt, if that\'s what they are running over today.

[miff]

JB,

Would have been surprised if you did not respond as you did.One thing on synths/poly is that many jocks are instructed NOT to dead send and you will often see early speed horses taken back. Now, race shape wise, there is no possible adjustment but poly/synth may somewhat distort your race shape figs when jocks are not sending as they normally would.

Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- right. The graph is not a prediction, it is literally to give some idea of the shape of the race. Is there a lot of speed, roughly how fast does the first quarter figure to go (that\'s primarily where the glitches still are), does a horse on the outside figure to be able to drop in, etc. Like the sheets and profiles we sell, it is data, not a prediction, and as people get used to using it I\'m sure they will develop ways of doing so that are different from mine and each other\'s.

Tell you one way I\'m going to use it-- in giving riding instructions. Which by itself tells you that you can\'t take the graph literally, because horses I\'m involved with won\'t necessarily be sitting where they have been. As I said in the material, trainers and jockeys handicap too.

[fkach]

One thing I can tell you with a high degree of confidence is that it\'s WAY easier to predict a slow pace than a fast pace.

So much of what happens in races that appear to have 2 (or even 3) speeds is dependent on the break and the decision of a single jockey, things often wind up going a lot differently than expected. It\'s not until you get to 4-5 speeds that you can be fairly certain that the pace will be fast and some of the speeds will either get used up going for the lead or get outrun early and not run back to their best figures. You don\'t see nearly as much variation in races loaded with deeper and slower closers. Few slow closers suddenly show a ton of speed.

It also helps to consider running styles and not just fractions.

When it comes to pace, many horses only run as fast at they have to (within their range of ability) to secure a favorable/desired position.  So if you see a lot of \"1\"s in the PPs, the horse could easily be a lot faster early than his fractions in his last few races.

This is very good product!

As a big fan of pace and trip, I think your customers would be smart to add it to their shopping lists.

[Michael D.]

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB,
> I\'m well versed on the Bris methodology regarding
> pace figures and what type variants they use.
> I will say the Bris is a lot more indepth than
> what is being portrayed in here.


small,

please explain.

thanks.

[smalltimer]

Michael D.
I may have used poor wording when I said, \"I will say the Bris is a lot more indepth than what is being portrayed in here.\"  If it came off as I was comparing the Bris methodology to Thoro, that wasn\'t the intent.  
What I\'ve read from most of the guys who post here is that Bris doesn\'t factor in as many variables as Thoro, that could be true, however, I\'m a total novice regarding Thorograph, but I\'ve been highly successful with the Bris numbers.  
I\'ve just never found them lacking in accuracy and I\'ve had a lot of people challenge their figures because of final race times between circuits, etc, but when I break down their numbers, they are always right on the button.
I\'m primarily an angle player and I rely on the Bris numbers to indicate the predominant speed in the race and I can quickly visualize the way the race \"should\" set up.  
For example, as I look at the last outs by Big Brown in the Fla Derby and then War Pass in the Wood, this is what I see.  War Pass 121/123/71 and a SPD of 99 going the mile and an eighth.  Big Brown 107/117/98 and a SPD of 110.  On paper, even though those races were on different tracks, at 4F War Pass would be clear by 7 lengths and at 6F he would be clear by 10 lengths and in the stretch Big Brown would pick up 13.5 lengths and finish about 5.5 lengths in front of War Pass, simply because War Pass walked down the lane.  
I\'ve also looked at the 1 Mile Allowance race that each of them ran at GP.
In those races, Brown is at 96/105/96 with a SPD of 102 and War Pass was 85/88/110 and a speed of 100.  So, on paper at that mile distance on the same track Brown at 4f would be clear by 5.5 lengths, 6f at 14 lengths and during the stretch War Pass would pick up 7 lengths.  At the finish, Brown would have run the 1 mile race and won by about 1 length. So, in a nutshell, in looking at a possible Derby scenario, I see (assuming they all break clean which they won\'t) War Pass going right to the front, (no big revelation) and probably being very difficult to corral for at least the first mile 1/16th or so.  I think his collapse in the Wood would make anyone suspicious of him every getting the Mile and a Quarter. We also know, War Pass must have the lead to have even the slightest chance. If he\'s shuffled back, its all over, whereas Big Brown can get shuffled back and probably still come running.
In those two examples, I\'m not concerned with ground loss or post position as will not be the case in the Derby.
I think its likely any horse that sets a couple lengths off War Pass for the first mile will be toast by mid stretch.  But, its way to early to make any predictions, but its not a risky comment to say that if War Pass breaks clean, he will go to the front. Period.
I think if Brown decides to hook War Pass early, you can stick a fork in both of them because War Pass has no choice but to be on the front and once he gets passed the connections will know he\'s toast, so I assume he\'ll run as hard as he has to, to get the lead and hope they let him get away with soft fractions.  Even though War Pass has stopped at the shorter distances, if they let him coast out there in 47.0 or so, it could take awhile to reel him in.
I can elaborate further if you\'d like.  It\'s hard to get too detailed without putting people to sleep.
I would entertain any follow ups though.