Big Brown is BOSS

[Uncle Buck]

After watching many hours of race replays of all the top 2008 Derby Contenders, I can confidently say that nobody even comes close to Big Brown this year. I don\'t even need to see the Ark Derby or the Bluegrass. Visually he\'s so much more superior to these other three year olds - he\'s truly a man among boys. His cruising rate is almost twice that of the others. I think he simply gallops on May 3rd regardless of post position. It will not matter. On thoro-figures he\'s what, 4 points faster than any other three year old this year (War Pass\' and Pyro\'s two year old figures notwithstanding)? He\'s yet to bounce and has good spacing between starts. Oh yeah - and he can rate comfortably off leaders as he did in his Gulstream allowance win.

I do not like chaulk. I really don\'t like Dutrow at all, but this horse is too legit. Desormeaux lucked out.

Do yourself a favor and watch all three career starts on Youtube. Just type his name in and the races will come up.

It\'s not even close

[Rick B.]

I\'ve tried telling people this, and all I get back is: \"Yeah, but he\'ll be a short price.\"
 
That he will. But your \"man among boys\" comment, Buck, reminds me of 2000 and the way Fu Peg towered over his competition that year.
 
I\'ll be looking for underneath horses only for this Derby if Big Brown goes; if he doesn\'t go, it\'s a horse race again.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

If I was factoring BJB a standout, I sure wouldn\'t be comparing him to FuPig.

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ve tried telling people this, and all I get back
> is: \"Yeah, but he\'ll be a short price.\"
>  
> That he will. But your \"man among boys\" comment,
> Buck, reminds me of 2000 and the way Fu Peg
> towered over his competition that year.
>  
> I\'ll be looking for underneath horses only for
> this Derby if Big Brown goes; if he doesn\'t go,
> it\'s a horse race again.

[Rick B.]

Kentucky Derby only, CTC. Fu Peg was tons the best leading up to the Derby, and spanked \'em all on Derby day. I spent a small fortune trying to beat him that day, because \"he was such a short price\". That was just stupid.

I don\'t care what Fu Peg did later, and I didn\'t say that Big Brown would win the Triple Crown, The Travers, and the BC Classic this year, either.

[pres711]

name the last derby winner without a race at two?  big brown will bounce or not make to the gate. I have seen every derby since Riva Ridge, and yet to see a horse without foundation win the race.  Also, Boundary couldn\'t get a mile and an 8th, let alone another post.  At 5/2, TOSS HIM OUT.  There will be money made on may 3 doing just that!

[SoCalMan2]

Not sure why absence of a two year old race is relevant factor in the case of Big Brown -- he broke his maiden at Saratoga around two turns against a maiden field where they tend to have relatively strong fields (his maiden purse was $63k).  One would say that a two turn win on Labor Day of one\'s two year old year is a positive rather than a negative.

Also, in my view, looking at what factors other derby winners had and other derby losers had is handicapping by anecdote rather than using truer trends and tendancies.  The number of modern derbies run is such a small sampling that any statistic is nothing more than an anecdote.    Although Curlin did not win the derby, he did beat 17 horses in the derby and his first race was in February.  I am not suggesting this means anything.  Just tossing one anecdote at another anecdote.  I would say that the only thing that makes the derby different is its distance, the huge traffic caused by 20 horses, and the fact there is such a crush of humanity that horses that are easily spooked can come apart.

In terms of the special derby elements, I normally think breeding is very important for getting the extra distance but in modern times most of the horses are poorly bred for distance so you have a bunch of middle distance horses competing at the wrong distance for them.  Breeding still needs to be considered, but I would be careful not to overweight it.  I do think experience is very important for helping a horse get that last furlong or two as well as dealing with the 20 horses.  On this score, maybe somebody could say that Big Brown has not had any adversity and nobody knows how he will react when he is hooked late or when he has to deal with being trapped or knocked over.  however, that question has little to do with the fact that he only had one 2 year old race and a lot more to do with the fact he has only had 3 races total -- and with the exception of the Florida Derby, his races were basically trouble-free walkovers. In terms of the crush of humanity issue, he did win his debut at Saratogaa on Labor Day which can have more people than tracks normally get these days and Florida Derby Day is a big day in a hot clime.  Of course, one needs to see how he reacts on the day of the race, but this horse does seem to be able to handle large crowds.

On balance, the fact that he has yet to prove himself in adverse conditions is a possible knock against him. However, post 12 at Gulfstream was one type of adversity and he handled that fine and also we have to remember it is not like he has faced adversity and failed -- he just hasn\'t had the opportunity yet.  We will need to see what the Derby field comes up like and determine what kind of trip he will get, what kind of a trip his chief adversaries will get, and what we can expect to be unfolding in the stretch.  While I, too, like to throw out heavily bet horses, it is not a good practice to do without undertaking a lot of thought first.

In terms of breeding, by current standards and in my view, he is no worse than a lot of the horses than run in the Derby.  He does have Damascus and Round Table on both the top and the bottom which help somewhat.  Additionally, he has Forli and Roberto on his mother\'s side (the mother even has Lauren Stich\'s favorite feature -- she calls it the Rasmussen Factor -- because she had the influential dam Rough Shod on both her top and bottom).  We will need to see how his competitors are bred, but, to me, his pedigree is no worse than the usual derby pedigree these days in my view.  It is not as if he has a sprinter\'s pedigree and they are trying to stretch him.  He has more of a middle distance pedigree.

[miff]

Pres,

What horse are you speaking of? BB did race and win at two and already won at 1 and 1/8 th mile, a dead send, impossible post and a huge neg fig.Whether he will win or not is debatable, but the points you make are already asked and answered.He has more than sufficient foundation, the question is has he gone too fast,too soon since his first effort this year, a TG 1, is a big fig to run with only three modest works.Follow that with a lights out neg fig and you normally have the makings of an implosion.


This horse is a question of getting there sound. He towers over on raw ability and the bounce factor may not be that relevant because of Tricky and 5 weeks spacing, a lethal combination heretofore.Having said that, for all of Trickys magic, no stuff can overcome serious infirmary, if it exist.


Mike

[fkach]

>While I, too, like to throw out heavily bet horses, it is not a good practice to do without undertaking a lot of thought first. <

I agree completely.

Follow this:

1. As a group, \"short priced\" favorites tend to outperform the track take slightly.

2. Occasionally, the public overbets a favorite badly or even makes a false favorite.

3. If you do a reasonable job of eliminating some of the false favorites, as a group the remaining ones will outperform the track take by even more than the orginal group.

4. In races where there is a legitimate short priced favorite, as a group the remaining horses will lose MUCH MUCH more than the track take because it has to come from somewhere.

IMHO, if you analyze a race and conclude that the favorite is solid and not wildy overbet, you should be extra careful about taking a stand against him because you are playing a very difficult game.

[fkach]

I think we should learn something about BB\'s soundness any day now because he should breeze shortly if he\'s doing well. If he doesn\'t show up soon, I would suspect something is amiss.

[RICH]

The 5 weeks spacing and dutrow are the only positives when looking at the effort distribution for 3yos in the race subsequent to a -1 figure or better earned before July which shows

top    0 %
pair  18.8%

off   29.2%
x     52.1%

lets say he pairs the top, he may be 20% to win. Would you take 3-1?

[richiebee]

Thank you Fkach for making the point that needs to be made.

My opinion is that BB needs more than a couple of \"breezes\" to complete his
Derby preparation, given the low mileage on his odometer.

When comparing BB\'s light 3YO schedule to FuPeg, remember that FuPeg had 2 two-
turn stakes races (San Felipe and Wood Memorial) leading up to the Derby.

If BB can win the Derby off of his light racing schedule and without much
preparation between the Fla Derby and the Ky Derby, I will be humming the tune
to \"Super Freak\"...much the way I do whenever I see a picture of my former
Governor.

[miff]

Rich,


If he pairs his top, he\'s much less than 3-1 to win and I would take that for what I could beg, borrow or steal. Who could possibly beat him, except maybe Pyro, if he pairs?


Mike

[jimbo66]

If he pairs the top, he might be 50% to win, or even higher.  Who can run in the negative 3ish range?  War Pass, once on a sloppy track?  Anybody else has to move up 4 points to win.

I would say it is less than 50% that a contender runs a 4 point new top in the derby or War Pass runs back to his Monmouth BC race.

So, if BB pairs, he has to lose an awful lot of ground to not win.

[alm]

I love this series of posts.  I hope all of you who responded with some brains will take a nap, so the BB rooters can have a field day.  Please let them knock the odds down on this one, so the rest of us have a shot at winning at a price.

[Rick B.]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I love this series of posts.  I hope all of you
> who responded with some brains will take a nap, so
> the BB rooters can have a field day.  Please let
> them knock the odds down on this one, so the rest
> of us have a shot at winning at a price.

That\'s pretty arrogant, considering the esteemed group of posters already recorded here, excluding me.
 
I might also point out that it doesn\'t take a whole helluva lot of brains (or courage) to diss the expected favorite in the Derby. Tell us who\'s going to win, genius.