GINGER PUNCH? FOR JB

[high roller]

hi jerry, it seems to me that your numbers are becoming almost mechanical. for example ginger punch has run a neg 1/2 in 4 out of her last 5 races. does anyone really believe this?

i thought the sheets were supposed to show a cycling of efforts,yet in horse after horse i see nothing but \"pair-up\" efforts. i can give many examples.

it seems to me that someone in your office has gotten lazy in making the figures, please check your work and see if there has been a pattern of too many horses pairing up.

thank you

[congaree1]

This is very commom in TG #\'s, look at Tiago and Circualr Quay. I could give many more examples, but I am with you 100%.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

That was a nice effort by Tiago yesterday wasn\'t it? I have no comment upon the individual numbers. That said, I do know one of TGraph\'s statistical tenets is that a large percentage of Stakes Caliber horses will pair. Another tenet is that track speed will change throughout a card. Experience, has me concurring fully with the latter principle. A problem arises when it appears the track changes speed due to the fact that a large number of the Stakes Horses entered in a race run \"off\" or \"top\" races. TGraph maintains that is statistically rare, mathematically improbable. My anecdotal belief is that it happens more often than they maintain, but I view those races as anomalies and opportunities.

Ginger Punch for example was beaten over 4 points. No one thinks that beating was the result of being mis-figured...or do they?

congaree1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This is very commom in TG #\'s, look at Tiago and
> Circualr Quay. I could give many more examples,
> but I am with you 100%.

[miff]

Chuck,

Ginger P did take pressure for 6f and was not nearly at her best.Several short priced Frankel runners at various tracks performed below their norm in the last few days.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I knew Plech was \"Off\" but did not realize Frankel was \"off\" too. Country Star, I attributed to Poly. If Frankel was off across the board I think thats further evidence of a change afoot.

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> Ginger P did take pressure for 6f and was not
> nearly at her best.Several short priced Frankel
> runners at various tracks performed below their
> norm in the last few days.
>
>
> Mike

[Uncle Buck]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I knew Plech was \"Off\" but did not realize Frankel
> was \"off\" too. Country Star, I attributed to Poly.
> If Frankel was off across the board I think thats
> further evidence of a change afoot.
>
> miff Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Chuck,
> > I don\'t think you can attribute Country Star\'s poor showing to poly. She romped on the Holly Poly. Albarado had her way wide both turns but she wasn;t going anywhere anyway. Looked like a glorified prep to me watching the replay.
> > Ginger P did take pressure for 6f and was not
> > nearly at her best.Several short priced Frankel
> > runners at various tracks performed below their
> > norm in the last few days.
> >
> >
> > Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Typo, I meant Proud Spell.

Country Star was merely off.

However, Good on Poly doesn\'t mean they can\'t go Bad on Poly. I hate the stuff and will not bet it.

Thankfully, it looks like there will be very few Poly horses to factor in the Derby. Though the Blue Grass will have something to say about that too.

Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I knew Plech was \"Off\" but did not realize
> Frankel
> > was \"off\" too. Country Star, I attributed to
> Poly.
> > If Frankel was off across the board I think
> thats
> > further evidence of a change afoot.
> >
> > miff Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Chuck,
> > > I don\'t think you can attribute Country Star\'s
> poor showing to poly. She romped on the Holly
> Poly. Albarado had her way wide both turns but she
> wasn;t going anywhere anyway. Looked like a
> glorified prep to me watching the replay.
> > > Ginger P did take pressure for 6f and was not
> > > nearly at her best.Several short priced
> Frankel
> > > runners at various tracks performed below
> their
> > > norm in the last few days.
> > >
> > >
> > > Mike

[Michael D.]

high roller Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> hi jerry, it seems to me that your numbers are
> becoming almost mechanical. for example ginger
> punch has run a neg 1/2 in 4 out of her last 5
> races. does anyone really believe this?
>
> i thought the sheets were supposed to show a
> cycling of efforts,yet in horse after horse i see
> nothing but \"pair-up\" efforts. i can give many
> examples.
>
> it seems to me that someone in your office has
> gotten lazy in making the figures, please check
> your work and see if there has been a pattern of
> too many horses pairing up.
>
> thank you


the Ginger Punch figures are correct as far as I can tell. I believe Jerry had one faster than most, and it wound up being correct.