TexasWildcatter

[BenevolentDictator]

Does TG have a financial interest in this horse?

[TGJB]

Other than taking him at 75-1 in the futures (my only bet so far), no.

But not for lack of trying.

[RICH]

Boy, he looks strong tomorrow. Looking foward to the race. A definite Key. Good Luck

[fkach]

>>Other than taking him at 75-1 in the futures (my only bet so far), no. <<

That\'s a nice one. Unfortunately his nose loss last out cost me a very nice score. I\'m still restless at night. ;-)

[jbelfior]

Terrific Future play, JB.


I\'m actually hoping for a BLUEGRASS CAT pattern. The big race at 1 1/16th at Tampa followed by the SINISTER MINISTER race in the days when Keenland was what it was in April.

I believe BC bounced back to a 5, then ran a huge one versus BARBARO at 31-1. I wouldn\'t throw this one out of the Derby picture if he regressed a bit tomorrow.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[flushedstraight]

Joe,

TW still needs the earnings to get in.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/DerbyEarnings.jsp

but maybe he still wins if he regresses a bit

[TGJB]

He probably needs to be in the top two to make the Derby cut, and if he runs worse than second they probably wouldn\'t enter him anyway.

[RICH]

FWIW I don\'t see any regression here, might not win, but no, no regression, still a major key. War Pass has problems.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Wonder what Richie Wildbeeter thinks about this one?

Richie isn\'t much of a inner tube devotee and if you take Texas Wildcatter\'s (TW\'s) inner tube figures away from him, what are you left with?

They say TW went \"wide\" last. Oh really? How far back was he then? and at what points was he \"wide\"? You sure he didn\'t cruise near the lead on a sloppy and perhaps speed favoring strip, ease out for the stretch before getting run down late by what is in all appearances a second string Visionaire? Hard to say isn\'t it? Even harder at second choice maybe?

What about his track selection? Arlington Park, Churchill (Where he bombs on a track he\'d have to fair well on.) Then to Philly and the Tube?

He also gets to tote a few more pounds further on a new track this time.

I guess any horse gets a dosage of under 3 these days. Not that I believe in dosage, I just don\'t believe this horse would scratch 5 on the scale a few years ago. His Sire side is not bad. His Dam side is rated 4.6 and I think thats generous.  Breeding wise, tail female progeny are about non existent for getting a handle on him. Forest Wildcat was a nice horse for going short.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/texas+wildcatter

In his favor, its not the strongest field ever and the favorite has to shake last race form deterioration. Still, theres three others to make him prove that slop zed was legit and repeatable.

I guess if you believe, that four point top isn\'t gonna shake you.

BenevolentDictator Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Does TG have a financial interest in this horse?

[richiebee]

Clownonero II:

I have not done an in depth analysis of any of the 4 graded stakes on the Ozone
Park card yet. At first glance it looks like a rather bettable Pick 4 sequence,
the biggest favorite in which comes in with a huge \"?\" attached to him. The
Excelsior features some grizzled veterans including Evening Attire, racing\'s
equivalent to Mick Jagger. The Bay Shore features your selection in the FOY,
Make the Point, cutting back to a more suitable distance. In the Carter, Bustin
Stones continues in his quest to become the fastest of the New York Bred Slow
Rats, but must defeat the well traveled and versatile entrant from the \"Arm and
Hammer\" stable, Spring at Last.

Not having studied enough to look forward yet, I might offer an opinion on past
events, more particularly the Gotham, run over the inner tube in a thick fog on
March 8.

From what I could see with the my binocs, and after having watched various
replays, I offer the following opinion: TW was victimized by a poor ride by N.
Arroyo, which featured not only a wide journey but also a premature move...an
unnecessary mid-turn move which was initiated about the time the pacesetters
(the awful favorite Saratoga Russell, Ling Ling Qi and Roman Emperor) were
beginning to back up. And of course right now I am playing the role of the
fickle racing fan, because Arroyo\'s ride was looking awful good at the 1/16th
pole with a 4 length lead

As to your observation regarding TW\'s previous stops (Arlington, Philly), I
might take this as a positive in that this is a runner which obviously began
his career low on Team Pletcher\'s depth chart but now seems to have made the
starting team. This is an obviously improving 3YO, whose main competition will
come from 3 colts (War Pass, Court Vision, Tale of Ekati) who established
themselves as juveniles but have answered no questions as 3YOs.

One more point re Visionaire: V ran up close with Pyro and ran very well in the
Gotham. He may well turn into an exceptional 3YO with proper spotting, but as a
son of Grand Slam, he will need to show me that he wants added distance.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Richquillo,

So, let me understand this. Visionaire, may be a good horse, but may have distance limitations due to the fact that he\'s a Grand Slam.

And though Visionaire made up 4 lengths late and nailed Richie Wildbeeter on the line Richie Wildbeeter on the basis of Arlington, Churchill Flop, Philly, Tube, Tube, and a wait for spring to arrive Wood has now by the virtue of being there risen to be Plech\'s best and thus a Triple Crown horse? Or was that \"best\" determined mainly by the wet track, nailed on the line Zed?

What happened to your general tenet that horses which run at the Tube belong at the Tube?

Yes, I did bet on Make the Point in the FOY. A mistake I will eternally regret. Maybe he\'ll actually get the lead this time. However, I did like Cool Coal Man 2nd and did select Spring at Last over Daaher (I think I\'m still spelling that ones name wrong.)
and also got back on track at Hallandale with the Fladerby and BRB.

War Pass is a bit of an enigma, but I think I\'m already in his head. I do believe he\'s a War Emblem type and will be fine if he can dictate the pace.
 

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Clownonero II:
>
> I have not done an in depth analysis of any of the
> 4 graded stakes on the Ozone
> Park card yet. At first glance it looks like a
> rather bettable Pick 4 sequence,
> the biggest favorite in which comes in with a huge
> \"?\" attached to him. The
> Excelsior features some grizzled veterans
> including Evening Attire, racing\'s
> equivalent to Mick Jagger. The Bay Shore features
> your selection in the FOY,
> Make the Point, cutting back to a more suitable
> distance. In the Carter, Bustin
> Stones continues in his quest to become the
> fastest of the New York Bred Slow
> Rats, but must defeat the well traveled and
> versatile entrant from the \"Arm and
> Hammer\" stable, Spring at Last.
>
> Not having studied enough to look forward yet, I
> might offer an opinion on past
> events, more particularly the Gotham, run over the
> inner tube in a thick fog on
> March 8.
>
> From what I could see with the my binocs, and
> after having watched various
> replays, I offer the following opinion: TW was
> victimized by a poor ride by N.
> Arroyo, which featured not only a wide journey but
> also a premature move...an
> unnecessary mid-turn move which was initiated
> about the time the pacesetters
> (the awful favorite Saratoga Russell, Ling Ling Qi
> and Roman Emperor) were
> beginning to back up. And of course right now I am
> playing the role of the
> fickle racing fan, because Arroyo\'s ride was
> looking awful good at the 1/16th
> pole with a 4 length lead
>
> As to your observation regarding TW\'s previous
> stops (Arlington, Philly), I
> might take this as a positive in that this is a
> runner which obviously began
> his career low on Team Pletcher\'s depth chart but
> now seems to have made the
> starting team. This is an obviously improving 3YO,
> whose main competition will
> come from 3 colts (War Pass, Court Vision, Tale of
> Ekati) who established
> themselves as juveniles but have answered no
> questions as 3YOs.
>
> One more point re Visionaire: V ran up close with
> Pyro and ran very well in the
> Gotham. He may well turn into an exceptional 3YO
> with proper spotting, but as a
> son of Grand Slam, he will need to show me that he
> wants added distance.

[richiebee]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richquillo,
>
> So, let me understand this. Visionaire, may be a
> good horse, but may have distance limitations due
> to the fact that he\'s a Grand Slam.
>
> And though Visionaire made up 4 lengths late and
> nailed Richie Wildbeeter on the line Richie
> Wildbeeter on the basis of Arlington, Churchill
> Flop, Philly, Tube, Tube, and a wait for spring to
> arrive Wood has now by the virtue of being there
> risen to be Plech\'s best and thus a Triple Crown
> horse? Or was that \"best\" determined mainly by the
> wet track, nailed on the line Zed?
>
> What happened to your general tenet that horses
> which run at the Tube belong at the Tube?
>
> Yes, I did bet on Make the Point in the FOY. A
> mistake I will eternally regret. Maybe he\'ll
> actually get the lead this time. However, I did
> like Cool Coal Man 2nd and did select Spring at
> Last over Daaher (I think I\'m still spelling that
> ones name wrong.)
> and also got back on track at Hallandale with the
> Fladerby and BRB.
>
> War Pass is a bit of an enigma, but I think I\'m
> already in his head. I do believe he\'s a War
> Emblem type and will be fine if he can dictate the
> pace.


Dust Clownmander:

I think you may have \"misheard\" me (the way we all misheard the empty pants suit
say that she was under sniper fire in Bosnia) if you believe that I said that TW
was Triple Clown material. I said that TW was an improving 3YO.

One point about TW in the Wood is that as Big JB pointed out, he needs a first
or second place finish to secure a spot in the Derby. This leaves your man
Pletch in the unenviable position of having to have him fully wound in the Wood
and then to run back at Churchill in exactly 28 days (28 days sounds like a
shorter period of time than one month or four weeks, no?). There is no such Wood
urgency for War Pass (#1 on graded earnings list), Tale of Ekati (#10) and Court
Vision (#13).

The fact that the three above mentioned can stand in the Derby gate without
expending much effort as 3YOs has me thinking that we need to tinker with the
graded earnings Derby formula, giving more weight to 3YO earnings as opposed to
2YO earnings, which would make the 3YO preps much more compelling. BRILLIANT!


As to the inner tube path to the Triple Clown, \"Smarty\" captured the Count Fleet
as a 3YO and was immediately dispatched to Arkansas for serious TC preparation.
I will stand by my contention that the inner tube 3YO races -- the
Jimmy Winkfield, the Count Fleet and the Whirlaway--will not produce much in
the way of TC fodder (as I stated during the winter, these races are now
ungraded and as such can not carry much significance in terms of the TC).

The graded Gotham Stakes has only recently become an inner sanctum feature.
For years it was run on the main Aq track at a flat mile. The first running of
the Gotham, in 1953, was won by Native Dancer at 1-1/16th. Famous Gotham \"Mile\"
winners include Jaipur, Doc Fager, Secretariat, Easy Goer (1:32.2) and Lure,
Secretariat being the only Gotham winner to win the Derby.

The Gotham information above courtesy of Wikipedia. Retrieving it got me to
thinking that I could take a few weeks away from handicapping to compose a
Chuckles the Clown Wikipedia page. This page could contain notable Clown
conspiracy theories, both political and equine;a list of the Clown\'s Derby
selections through the years (some documentation problems likely to be
encountered here) and finally a fascinating review of the number of times CTC
has been exclownmunicated by the Thoro- Pope, only to be allowed to return
through the benificence of His Hostliness.

[girly]

Richiebee, you kill me! I was rolling while reading this!

[Bally Ache]

Okay, let me put in my two cents.  First of all, if War Pass can\'t beat this bunch then he\'s simply not the horse he was last year.  And, on the subject of War Pass, with the abundance of 3 yr. old stakes this time of year, why would you take a speed horse to Tampa?

TexasWildcatter - I bet this horse last time and caught the exacta but I don\'t like him today.  There\'s a glaring omission from his resume that was there last time.  He had a very sharp work before the Gotham, not so today.  IMO his best race was at Philly.  His two IT races are almost identical and not fast enough to win today.  Of course he may like the main track, that\'s an unknown at this point.  I think his biggest plus is Arroyo off.

I don\'t even think TW is necessarily Pletcher\'s best horse in this race.  Spurrier ran as fast as he did last out.  He looks like an improving horse who might want more ground.  And, he\'s the one with the good work today.

If Anak Nakal can overcome the bad post he might be in the exotics.

As Richiebee noted, Court Vision has a win over the track, and at the distance although you could read half of War And Peace in the time it took him to do it.  I don\'t like the horse but it bothers me that apparently Gomez passed up Circular Quay at OP and the putative favorite out on the monkey track (SA) to ride this horse.

[P-Dub]

girly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richiebee, you kill me! I was rolling while
> reading this!


I\'ll take a hit.