Big Brown Runs

[Blind Switch]

Dear ESPN,

Please kill:

Jerry Bailey
Joe Morgan

Thanks

[fkach]

All of a sudden this Derby got a lot more interesting.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Unfortunately, War Pass and Pyros odds will now be readjusted to more accurately reflect their chances.

However, a War Pass/Big Brown Pace battle would be interesting wouldnt it?




fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> All of a sudden this Derby got a lot more
> interesting.

[fkach]

\"However, a War Pass/Big Brown Pace battle would be interesting wouldnt it? \"

Yes it would, especially if War Pass comes back with a good effort in the Wood.

[miff]

Of Big Brown,Tricky said after the race:

\"All I have to do is stay out of his way. I let him do what he wants."


.... a candid honest comment from Tricky. So much for pointing one or pattern creating. All you need is one who can run holes in the wind and is able to recoup within a few weeks, happens occasionally. Looked like a negative -3ish.


Mike

[jimbo66]

Miff,

It certainly looks like a big figure, would seem to have to be in negative territory, as he not only ran 3 seconds faster than the fillies, but also was wide on the first and probably the 2 path on the 2nd turn (not sure why he did that).

But if he gets a negative 3ish, it is time to break out the \"bounce\" study of 3 year olds who ran big negative numbers in the spring of their 3 year old season and how poorly most ran in the Derby itself.

Bandini ran a negative 3ish
Bellamy Road ran a negative 5ish
Sweetnorthernsait ran a negative 2ish
Afleet Alex ran a negative 2ish
Greeley\'s Galay ran a negative 2ish

Those horses I remember.  Smarty Jones is the only one that comes to mind that actually ran a big number in the Derby off the big negative number and if you remember, he actually won the derby with 2 points lower than his big arkansas race (southwest?)

With a foundation of just 3 races and bad feet, Big Brown will be hardpressed to turn in a big performance in the derby off of what almost assuredly is a 3-4 point new top.  Although, he will get the 5 weeks.

We\'ll see.

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

Excellent. The question is not \"how fast can BB run in the Derby?\", its
\"will BB run in the Derby?\". Is 5 weeks enough time for a horse with soundness
issues to recover from whatever ails him?

A good test for the horseman Miff calls Tricky, who has over the last 5 months
won a BC race (RD now 4/9 lifetime on BC Day), two major stakes in Dubai and a
1000K Derby prep.

Is it true that the name originally submitted to the Jockey Club was \"Big JERRY
Brown\"?

[jbelfior]

Anyone see the head on shot of the stretch run? Horse was all over the place.

BIG BROWN could cause one of the worst tragedies in Derby history if he runs.

All kinds of ailments, but feeling no pain!!!


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[SoCalMan2]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Miff,
>
> It certainly looks like a big figure, would seem
> to have to be in negative territory, as he not
> only ran 3 seconds faster than the fillies, but
> also was wide on the first and probably the 2 path
> on the 2nd turn (not sure why he did that).
>
> But if he gets a negative 3ish, it is time to
> break out the \"bounce\" study of 3 year olds who
> ran big negative numbers in the spring of their 3
> year old season and how poorly most ran in the
> Derby itself.
>
> Bandini ran a negative 3ish
> Bellamy Road ran a negative 5ish
> Sweetnorthernsait ran a negative 2ish
> Afleet Alex ran a negative 2ish
> Greeley\'s Galay ran a negative 2ish
>
> Those horses I remember.  Smarty Jones is the only
> one that comes to mind that actually ran a big
> number in the Derby off the big negative number
> and if you remember, he actually won the derby
> with 2 points lower than his big arkansas race
> (southwest?)
>
> With a foundation of just 3 races and bad feet,
> Big Brown will be hardpressed to turn in a big
> performance in the derby off of what almost
> assuredly is a 3-4 point new top.  Although, he
> will get the 5 weeks.
>
> We\'ll see.

One thing to keep in mind about Big Brown is his pattern.  Assuming the number comes out in the vicinity where people think it will come out, we will have a horse that has still not reacted.  Will need to go back and look at the negative figure study and see which horses had crossed into negative territory prior to ever giving a reaction.  To me, Big Brown is completely uncharted territory because he still has only three races and is still improving and learning.  I shudder to give a horse a bounce that has not yet given me a bounce.  Call me crazy, but I am rapidly feeling like this derby is getting a lot less interesting from a betting standpoint (maybe the figures will look different a month from now and i will feel differently, but right now it looks like a race with no handhold to find a wise guy position).

[fkach]

There is one thing about Big Brown that is a little different than most 3YOs with a similar profile.

IMHO, his deput on turf was kind of freakish. I thought he came home like a very special horse in his debut. Typically, I empty my wallet trying to beat horses like this in races like the Florida Derby (1st time against high quality horses, really tough outside post etc...). I wanted no part in trying to beat this horse because I was already convinced he was probably a total monster. (I didn\'t bet him either though).

I\'m not so sure what to think about this figure if it winds up super fast.

[miff]

Jim,

Agree, but none of those negative fig runners were trained by Tricky.That study is somewhat skewed imo, because it may be kinda normal for most young 3yr olds to  regress in their first race with 126 pounds at a distance farther than they have ever run with 20 horses banging on each other.How would that study look at a mile and an eighth with 122 pounds? What athlete, human/horse performs his best EVERY time anyway, answer, none.

In modern derby history, most of the winners came off a winning or second place prep.From memory not too many ran a negative -1 or better but 3 yr old negatives are a rather recent phenomena, generally speaking.

BB has developed app 10 points from his initial turf win with little to no foundation.(Rags/Beyer have both of BB\'s previous races a bit faster than TG) He is now legit fastest by far. No 3yr old has come close to doing what BB did yesterday against the clock while making the entire race shape from death valley post position.He did not beat much and wandered through the lane( analyst said he was running greenly, I think exhaustion was beginning to set in)

Even Tricky can\'t stop this one from popping a quarter, so that\'s gonna be a luck thing.Was it a knock out performance, or a bottom builder? Tough call with Tricky at the helm. This guy runs them back in 3-4 days and wins,so much for the spacing theorists.

Mike

p.s.  Another horse ran the last 1/16 of a turf route in 5.3 seconds as BB did in his 2yr old first start, Barbaro. For those not students of splits, it\'s in the freak range to run that split as a two yr old.

[rosewood]

Richiebee,

Glad to see you back with your always insightful posts. This horseman that Miff calls \"Tricky\" and as Maggi Moss tried to tell everyone; during the Alday/Dutrow fued, is the most loving man and smothers with love his charges and they just respond to his kindness.

I think they don\'t test for the stuff he\'s got his hands on and it sure ain\'t baking soda

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Its very clear that we now have a new Derby Favorite. His name is Big Jerry Brown \"BJB\".

First a little race rehash. There was some serious bumping early and some horses ran hard after the trouble (Nistle\'s Crunch and Hey Byrn) and others didn\'t pick up a hoof after the fisticuffs. (Elysium Fields and BB Frank). Not that BB was ever a factor.

Let\'s wait for the post race reports regarding which horses took the worst of it and deserve another chance. Currently, I believe Nistle\'s Crunch and Hey Byrn deserve next race consideration upon trouble yesterday. I was very impressed with Nistle\'s Crunch. It was a very big effort to the stretch and I think Nistle\'s will make some waves if they keep him away from BJB.

As far as BJB he did get erratic in the stretch, but he was pulling further away doing so. It could have been an indicator of fatigue or injury. It could have been that the first big crowd he saw got him off stride. I\'ll let the reports in the coming weeks influence my decision which.

BJB could come up with a hoof problem. Theres five weeks to hear about it. He could meet a resurgent War Pass in a pace duel, we\'ll have to wait upon War Pass\'s redemption as well. But one thing you can\'t dismiss is the race itself. An older Electrify in the last race of the day ran a number in the Zip to -2 range. (I\'m leaning to -2). That puts BJB right there and I think we have a new Kentucky Derby Favorite and this time, he\'s legit.

Ka-Ching

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jimbo66 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Miff,
> >
> > It certainly looks like a big figure, would
> seem
> > to have to be in negative territory, as he not
> > only ran 3 seconds faster than the fillies, but
> > also was wide on the first and probably the 2
> path
> > on the 2nd turn (not sure why he did that).
> >
> > But if he gets a negative 3ish, it is time to
> > break out the \"bounce\" study of 3 year olds who
> > ran big negative numbers in the spring of their
> 3
> > year old season and how poorly most ran in the
> > Derby itself.
> >
> > Bandini ran a negative 3ish
> > Bellamy Road ran a negative 5ish
> > Sweetnorthernsait ran a negative 2ish
> > Afleet Alex ran a negative 2ish
> > Greeley\'s Galay ran a negative 2ish
> >
> > Those horses I remember.  Smarty Jones is the
> only
> > one that comes to mind that actually ran a big
> > number in the Derby off the big negative number
> > and if you remember, he actually won the derby
> > with 2 points lower than his big arkansas race
> > (southwest?)
> >
> > With a foundation of just 3 races and bad feet,
> > Big Brown will be hardpressed to turn in a big
> > performance in the derby off of what almost
> > assuredly is a 3-4 point new top.  Although, he
> > will get the 5 weeks.
> >
> > We\'ll see.
>
> One thing to keep in mind about Big Brown is his
> pattern.  Assuming the number comes out in the
> vicinity where people think it will come out, we
> will have a horse that has still not reacted.
> Will need to go back and look at the negative
> figure study and see which horses had crossed into
> negative territory prior to ever giving a
> reaction.  To me, Big Brown is completely
> uncharted territory because he still has only
> three races and is still improving and learning.
> I shudder to give a horse a bounce that has not
> yet given me a bounce.  Call me crazy, but I am
> rapidly feeling like this derby is getting a lot
> less interesting from a betting standpoint (maybe
> the figures will look different a month from now
> and i will feel differently, but right now it
> looks like a race with no handhold to find a wise
> guy position).

[JR]

And that was when Reynolds was training him.

[ronwar]

...and add this quote from Dutrow a few weeks back "I always thought he was better on turf but when I worked him in company and [older stakes horse] Diamond Stripes couldn't stay with him, I knew I had a turf horse AND a dirt horse.\"

I do not think these 3 year olds can stay with him either.  He is not a need to lead type as he pressed in his mile alw win.

From Kent D \"My plan was not to get on the lead, but rather to get close enough to the rail so as not to get caught wide,\"

Personally, I hope the feet stay well as racing needs its stars.