Florida Derby Free Association

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

It could certainly be taken by the favorites, but there is some Big Balloon potential here.

Fierce Wind He\'s won at the track and distance. He won at Tampa, which War Pass couldn\'t do and he gets a good post. Didn\'t like the way he finished at Oldsmar, but that track will wear on a horse. He was game even in not going perfectly straight.

Smooth Air Was right there at the end with Fierce Wind despite some significant wide. Have to believe he scored out better for that last race.

Da\' Tara The blinkers on, blinkers off polka is a little disconcerting. Guess he comes from off of it this time after fading on the pace last.

Tomcito No telling what we have here, other than he\'s already won at 10 and 12 poles and is working well over the surface. This is another that could shake this race up like a bear on a honey tree.

Cool Gator Theres some potential in that last race finish.

Nistle\'s Crunch McPeek is having a good Gulf Meet and this horse ran a deceptively good race last.

Elysium Fields This horse has some talent. He strikes me as a forwardly placed grinder. I\'m not sure what that means in this race. Odds will probably decide.

Hey Byrn He lost his Prado, who thought the grass was greener on Benny the Bull. Do you agree with Prado?

Face the Cat Looks like Helen Pitts lost another one to a private sale. The horse has shown some versatility. (He will probably have to with that post.) Since Plech\'s best runners seem to happen when he\'s not selecting the horse from the auctions, I have to think this one can run a little. (Not saying it will be good enough.)

Big Brown Looks like the likely favorite to me, but has a lot to overcome in my opinion. Though would not be surprised to see him overcome it. Likely to win or run out is my belief. Lets see what the odds say.

[hossgnat]

This is an insane race, so many angles and so many \"apparent\" contenders.  If putting food on the table depended on my ROI at the track I would run screaming from a race like this.

But since I handicap for a hobby, I\'ll use Elysium, Majestic Warrior, and Cool Gator.  The Canadian Gator seems to like the FL climate thus far, he might crash the party at a juicy price.

[Michael D.]

agree hoss - I can\'t take a strong stand here.

I bet Tomcito off the breeding, just for fun.

[Silver Charm]

Taggs horse seemed to focused and on his game in the PP.

Working great since last. New Top in last was big but not giant.

Think he is forming a base. As fast as Big Brown and drawn inside.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Definitely a wing dinger.

I\'ll need either Hey Byrn or Big Brown to score.

the hossgnat Wrote:
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> This is an insane race, so many angles and so many
> \"apparent\" contenders.  If putting food on the
> table depended on my ROI at the track I would run
> screaming from a race like this.
>
> But since I handicap for a hobby, I\'ll use
> Elysium, Majestic Warrior, and Cool Gator.  The
> Canadian Gator seems to like the FL climate thus
> far, he might crash the party at a juicy price.

[Silver Charm]

Big run from the winner. Three full seconds faster than the filly race.

Give him all the accolades and everyone who piled on.

[Uncle Buck]

Big Brown looks like a real race horse. I\'m thinking a -3 for that performance. I\'ll be interested to see what Desormeaux has to say about this one after that performance. The Derby pace picture will get very interesting if War Pass comes back to form in the Wood.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

It wasn\'t tough to select Big Brown, but that was a very nice result for having the choice on top.

Nice call on Smooth air hossgnat.  

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Big run from the winner. Three full seconds faster
> than the filly race.
>
> Give him all the accolades and everyone who piled
> on.

[richiebee]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Big run from the winner. Three full seconds faster
> than the filly race.


Since SC brought up the filly race, the graded Bonnie Miss, let me make a
comment:

The Bonnie Miss drew a field of 6 (after scratches). There was one stakes
winner in the field, Robbie\'s Gal, who had won a stakes race at Calder
restricted to horses owned by members of the Georgia Thoroughbred Owner\'s
Association. Not a stellar field, so I do not know if the raw time comparison
has much pertinence.

The 1000K Grade I Florida Derby drew a field of 12, 3 of whom were stakes
winners going in: Smooth Air won the 7 furlong Hutcheson, Tomcito won a few
graded Peruvian stakes, and Majestic Warrior won the Hopeful as a 2YO.

Given the questionable quality of the Fla Derby field, and given the fact
that Big Brown was basically unchallenged throughout, let me throw out a
question:

Did we just watch a legit Derby contender, or did we just see this years
reincarnation of Bellamy Road?

One more note: Fierce Wind looked very sore in the post parade,was surprised he
was even allowed to enter the starting gate.

[Silver Charm]

We may be looking at the next Bellamy Road. But are we not saying this after every one of these races?

He Beat Nothing!

The Fla Derby has not been a deep field for years. Horses prep in the FOY or Tampa and fan out.

Here is the big difference between Big Browns race today and Pyros race in the Risen Star.

 Big Brown can be measured against the clock not who he beat.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >
> Here is the big difference between Big Browns race
> today and Pyros race in the Risen Star.
>
>  Big Brown can be measured against the clock not
> who he beat.

Well put Silver. Plus, Big Brown beat his same card fillies. In fact, he slaughtered them.

I think the top 4 finishers have a Triple Crown future.

[ajkreider]

Not to mention he did it from a very difficult post.

[fkach]

I think you have to ask yourself 2 questions.

1. How fast did the horse run

2. How did the horse run fast

Bellamy Road ran a very fast race, but he had the benefit of a track that was carrying speed well, a very weak field, and a loose lead etc... IMO, it was a big performance, but it wasn\'t as good as the figure suggested or as good as most people thought.

I don\'t think Big Brown\'s effort was nearly as fast, but I saw nothing easy about the trip. He was wide on the first turn being used hard to clear horses. That 22.3 and 45.4 is really like a 22.1 and 45.2 (or thereabouts) because of ground loss. I also didn\'t think this field was that bad (it was better than the field BR beat in the Wood). Smooth Air has been a solid improving horse with a decent figure win in the Grade 2 Hutcheson. We have no idea how good Tomcito was/is. There were also other decent prospects from top barns that got buried chasing him. In fact, everyone that was close to him early got annihilated, which is further evidence of how fast he was going early. That\'s partly why the field was a so strung out at the end. He ran WAY too fast early for those second string contenders chasing him.  

I think a reasonable comparison of the fractions and final time can be made by looking at the 12th race.

22.3 45.4 110 135 148

23.1 46.1 110 135 147.4 (and I doubt a sprinter like St Daimon\'s pace here was slow)

[Uncle Buck]

Silver - I can remember thinking the exact same thing last year when Curlin won the Oaklawn races. He didn\'t beat much at all in Arkansas then developed into a full blown beast. Brown looks classy and runs classy albeit against weaker. I think he\'s for real