A Word from Our Host

[BitPlayer]

From Steve Haskin\'s column:

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44221

On Thoro-Graph, Pyro ran a "negative-1" in the BC Juvenile. The only horse to run that fast this year going two turns is allowance winner Hey Byrn. The fastest two-turn stakes horses have been Denis of Cork with a "1/4", Elysium Fields and Big Brown with a "1," and Sierra Sunset with a "1 1/2." Well, Pyro, who clearly has not been honed for his top effort, has run a "3 1/2" followed by a "2." So, even though he still has a lot more improvement left in him, he's already right there with the fastest 3-year-olds.

"He's doing almost identically what Carl Nafzger did with Street Sense," said Thoro-Graph's Jerry Brown. "Both horses ran well enough at two to win the Derby. It's not a question of having them improve; it's just a question of having them get back to their best race. Both these trainers have clearly taken a path where they're not going to have the horse expend any extra energy before then, and in both cases they decided to run on Polytrack in their last start before the Derby. Nafzger already knew his horse didn't love the surface, and Asmussen is smart and knows that all he has to do is basically get this horse back to where he was. He's clearly thinking about getting the horse to run his best race on Derby Day and I think he's doing everything right. At this point, I believe he's the most likely winner of the Derby.

"Everybody gets excited about races in February, and Derbys are not won in February. I think a lot of trainers these days are essentially manufacturing patterns, whether it's the influence of speed sheets or not. Todd Pletcher seems to think that way, and Asmussen clearly thinks that way. Whether or not they're looking at our data or Ragozin's, they're thinking in terms of a pattern."

[fkach]

So if Pyro runs a mediocre (or even horrible) race on the polytrack surface, Asmussen is pretty much going to have to go to the Derby anyway because he\'ll have to assume it was the surface (Pyro has never run on an artificial surface). Unfortunately, if it wasn\'t the surface, he\'s not going to have any idea that he\'s potentially sending out a horse that\'s not 100% or that needs more or less work heading into the Derby.

I know this worked for Nafzger last year, but he had a very good line on his horse on both surfaces.

I guess Pyro is also not too bad a horse to do this with because he would probably go to the Derby even if he ran a mediocre race on dirt.  

However, I still can\'t see how running any horse on a synthetic track is an advantage in preparing for the Derby when for most horses it just clouds the analysis of how good he is in that snapshot in time or how good he is on dirt period. It can\'t make any of the important training or entry decisions easier.

If there\'s something to be gained from a conditioning perspective, then why not train over it and race on dirt?

[miff]

\"He's clearly thinking about getting the horse to run his best race on Derby Day and I think he's doing everything right\"


....wonder what the other 19 trainers are doing,NOT trying to get their horse to peak on derby day?

Mike

[NoCarolinaTony]

When looking at the current 20 qualifiers, all of whom are very tarnished at this point with only Pyro appearing polished enough, and Big Truck\'s last was worthy of merit.

This race is the most wide open in years, probably going back to the Giacomo year, although that year we didn\'t really believe it was that wide open, until after the race was run.

NC Tony

[JR]

Michael Dickinson says dirt tears muscle down while turf builds muscle up.

[girly]

Well said!

[Silver Charm]

The other 19 are throwing darts while blindfolded.

Asmussen has a little better hand to start with so he can afford to manufacture a pattern. He has a horse who has already run fast enough to win while the others have not.

However if Pyro runs decent in the BG there will be a lot of \"steam\" built into his price on the tote board. Mostly in anticipation of him doing something he has only done once and it was six months ago.

We are not talking about Woody Stephens or Charlie Whittingham here either.a good trainer but not yet a great one.

As Vito says,\" We shall see\"

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

To cash the Derby, you have to pick the winner. It takes a single selected as the winner to hammer the exotics combinations. If the host thinks its Pyro and he wins then more power to him.

To my eye there is a Vast difference between Street Sense\'s back figure, preps and Derby effort and Pyro\'s back figure, preps and projected Derby effort. But then, I thought Street Sense ran a juvenile -2 and don\'t think Pyro ran anywhere near a juvenile -1. I also don\'t think Pyro improved a point and a half in the Louisiana Derby.

Rather than factor Pyro first, my strong inclination is to beat him out of as much of the exotics as possible, because he very well may be favored.

There\'s several other reasons to play him out, but sticking to figure reasons, these are the salient ones.

Hopefully he makes the gate, because Pyro\'s presence will provide tremendous value in the race.

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> From Steve Haskin\'s column:
>
> http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44221
>
> On Thoro-Graph, Pyro ran a "negative-1" in the BC
> Juvenile. The only horse to run that fast this
> year going two turns is allowance winner Hey Byrn.
> The fastest two-turn stakes horses have been Denis
> of Cork with a "1/4", Elysium Fields and Big Brown
> with a "1," and Sierra Sunset with a "1 1/2."
> Well, Pyro, who clearly has not been honed for his
> top effort, has run a "3 1/2" followed by a "2."
> So, even though he still has a lot more
> improvement left in him, he's already right there
> with the fastest 3-year-olds.
>
> "He's doing almost identically what Carl Nafzger
> did with Street Sense," said Thoro-Graph's Jerry
> Brown. "Both horses ran well enough at two to win
> the Derby. It's not a question of having them
> improve; it's just a question of having them get
> back to their best race. Both these trainers have
> clearly taken a path where they're not going to
> have the horse expend any extra energy before
> then, and in both cases they decided to run on
> Polytrack in their last start before the Derby.
> Nafzger already knew his horse didn't love the
> surface, and Asmussen is smart and knows that all
> he has to do is basically get this horse back to
> where he was. He's clearly thinking about getting
> the horse to run his best race on Derby Day and I
> think he's doing everything right. At this point,
> I believe he's the most likely winner of the
> Derby.
>
> "Everybody gets excited about races in February,
> and Derbys are not won in February. I think a lot
> of trainers these days are essentially
> manufacturing patterns, whether it's the influence
> of speed sheets or not. Todd Pletcher seems to
> think that way, and Asmussen clearly thinks that
> way. Whether or not they're looking at our data or
> Ragozin's, they're thinking in terms of a
> pattern."

[jimbo66]

Almost everything JB says in that hypothesis is based on the fact that Pyro has ALREADY run fast enough to win the Derby, as a 2 year old.

The other side of that argument would be that comparing the fast two year old figure of Street Sense to the fast two year old figure of Pyro is not an accurate comparison because of the way those figures were earned.  I know tradition says \"a number is a number on turf, dirt, or running on glass\".  However, I will take the fast figure on a standard dirt track against a figure earned in a sea of slop, where more than half the field didn\'t run at all.  First off, because of the beaten lengths and stretched out field on the slop, it makes the figure more questionable (at least to some of us).  Plus, and maybe more importantly, unless the Derby is run in the slop, Pyro hasn\'t shown he can run that fast on a fast track.  

The \"2\" last time out is interesting.  I have to watch the replay, as I thought he had a rail trip, which would make the \"2\" seem too fast, based on the time of the race, especially relative to the fillies that day.

Also, calling Pyro is the most likely winner of the derby isn\'t really a value proposition in any kind of way.  He is number one on everybody\'s list right now, and would probably be less than 3-1 in a 20 horse field, if the race was tomorrow.

Holding aside the slop figure, Pyro would be the favorite in a 20 horse field, with more than 1 or 2 horses in the race faster than he is, coming in.  To me, sounds like a very poor gamble.

[Flighted Iron]

Also, calling Pyro is the most likely winner of the derby isn\'t really a value proposition in any kind of way. He is number one on everybody\'s list right now, and would probably be less than 3-1 in a 20 horse field, if the race was tomorrow.

Holding aside the slop figure, Pyro would be the favorite in a 20 horse field, with more than 1 or 2 horses in the race faster than he is, coming in. To me, sounds like a very poor gamble.

I like this point very much from a true gambler\'s standpoint.However,as a gambler
in a 20 horse field my objective is to hit the almost assured big triple and having 1 definite part of the triple is how I would view Pyro. A good sense of
trip handicapping is invaluable in this case and I\'ll concede Asmussen the benefit
of the doubt he\'ll effort all resources for Pyro not to get a Curlin trip.

[imallin]

I think that in the Derby, SO much luck is involved, you need to bet against the favorites and box longshots. If you want to bet a 3-1 shot, you have 364 other days of the year to turn 2 dollars into 8.

Why waste even one dollar on Pyro in any of the 3 slots? The dollar you save by tossing Pyro is one more dollar that might be able to have a trifecta box that pays 50k or more. If you are made of money, than you can box all 20 and start celebrating, but if you have a limited bankroll and you have to pick and choose, why choose chalk?

All this Pyro discussion makes sense if this was horse racing. The Derby is not really a horse race.....its a melee of 20 horses all bouncing off each other on a track that most of them have never stepped foot on, at a distance that none of them have ever tried with 120,000  people screaming in their ears. This race doesn\'t always go to the swiftest, but the luckiest.

Use the Derby to try and get lucky, you can bet on a 3-1 shot anytime. Try and crush the race. REALLY crush it.

[miff]

Jim,

My tradition says that big wet track figures are only relevant on wet tracks.Dogma says a fig is a fig is a fig which gets disproven almost every day at every race track.Surfaces/trips/pace/race shape all go into why a fig is earned and sometimes a big fig is earned only due to a perfect storm scenario.Such figs are to be eyed with suspicion, a la big wet track figs.It all goes to the interpretation of the player which is reflected in the odds.

There are common horses with wet track numbers that are faster than any figs run by very fast champions.The fig maker has no choice but to award the freakish slop fig when warranted however such figs are bogus, in a  racing sense and are rarely repeated unlesss the slop conditions are present.Even then they are rarely duplicated especially if earned by a \"no count\" runner.

Mike

[jbelfior]

Hailing the winner of two 1 1/16th races in March as the Derby favorite makes little sense to me.

I would rather see a 3yo who has pressed the pace and won or run a close second going 7f or a mile at some point in their career. Let\'s see some pace and finishing ability. How about let\'s see a win at a 1 1/8th!!

Horses that close at a 1 1/6th, over tracks with a profile which favors that kind of running style, doesn\'t exactly get me excited. You know what they say...\"It\'s not ONLY how fast they ran, but how they ran fast.\"


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

Chuck,

You are forgetting that with the demise of War Pass, only two fast ones are left to challange Pyro(as of now) and they have issues  Dennis of Cork(ridiculous management) and Big Brown(very inexperienced) and this Saturday will tell lots about his future as a derby prospect.

Agree that short priced, one run closers,should always have a  bulleye on their back for gambling purposes.

Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- some of those other trainers-- especially those that have to worry about having enough earnings-- are much more realistic in their plans, which is to say they are concerned with having their horse run well right now. There\'s a lot of money in those preps. The only ones strictly thinking Derby are the ones who have top 2yos.

And as far as \"a number is a number\"-- you show me one sheets player who has ever said that all horses that run well on one surface run well on all. But when you are dealing with a horse with good numbers on fast tracks, I\'m going to assume he\'s not a slop freak until proven otherwise. If he doesn\'t get back to his top in the Derby, you and Jim are right.

By the way, I\'m not handing Pyro the Derby, or even saying I\'m going to bet him. But he is the most likely winner RIGHT NOW, which was my point to Haskin.