Curlin carries 132 lbs

Sandreadis · February 26, 2008, 06:41:49 PM

Spotting 15 lbs. to 5 rivals. At 1 1/4 miles, how many lengths is that equal to? Any chance of an upset? Any figures for this race? Are steroids tested for in Dubai?

elkurzhal · February 27, 2008, 07:54:21 AM

If
5 lbs = 1pt
1 pt = 2 lenghts (@10 furlongs)

Then
15 lbs = 3 pts = 6 lengths

Flighted Iron · February 27, 2008, 10:22:48 AM

S,

Any chance of an upset? Good question!! I think Curlins\' lifetime best is
neg 4. What are the chances he runs this number going 10 furlongs off the
layoff? How likely is it Asmussen wants him to run this number here versus his
next start given the purse amounts? Let\'s say the latter.With that said,then what
is a reasonable number to give Curlin? Zero? Neg 1? Neg 2? My guess is he\'s
very capable of running a Neg 2 off the break and probably will.(breath)What
then is the number necessary to upset him? Given the weight handicap of 3 pts is it
reasonable that a competitor can run a rail trip 1 or slightly better to accomplish the upset.Without the sheets we have to go old school and read the
DRF past performances.IMO this IS the time to bet against if there is value provided in the odds and the past performances suggest the 1 is capable by his
competitors.

Lost Cause · February 27, 2008, 10:35:01 AM

Are there DRF PPs. for this race? I was looking online but I can\'t find any. Can anyone point me in the right direction?

Lost Cause · February 27, 2008, 11:53:54 AM

I just got a quick look at the race...I could ride Curlin @ 245 lbs and still win the race in a hand ride..perfect setup race for the Dubai World Cup..Race over the track to familiarize and not break a sweat while doing it..Will win under wraps, I can\'t find a reason to bet the race..

NoCarolinaTony · February 27, 2008, 12:59:32 PM

Lost, where did you get the PP\'s?

NC Tony

Lost Cause · February 27, 2008, 01:12:04 PM

It\'s not the form but it was all that I could find..tough to read..

http://www.emiratesracing.com/eq/pdf/FG20080228.pdf

NoCarolinaTony · February 27, 2008, 01:16:08 PM

Thanks Bud!!

NC Tony

cubfan0316 · February 27, 2008, 03:49:38 PM

why would assy run his colt 20,000 miles away at 132? gotta

be getting about sand as tiger got for golfing there> what a joke.

marcus · February 27, 2008, 05:12:36 PM

Thanks for those PP\'s ... whats he running in the -neg 4 range ? Big questions IMO : the shipping , surface , climate change , night racing and ability to compete outside of North America .

Flighted Iron · February 27, 2008, 05:18:40 PM

Lost,

I have to disagree.Based on times and weight carried it appears Curlin
may have a legit challenger in Familiar Territory.His last race at 1 1/4
was very impressive although we don\'t know who he beat.He did however run
very fast and will get a weight break of over 14 lbs. this go-round.

Thanks for the link by the way.

tmon · February 27, 2008, 08:44:46 PM

The race is a handicap and according to William Hill Radio all of his competitors are at least 9 lbs. out of the handicap. Also if you register at Racingpost.com site. http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/home.sd you can get online form and pps.

Tom

Lost Cause · February 28, 2008, 06:55:08 AM

\"why would assy run his colt 20,000 miles away at 132? gotta

be getting about sand as tiger got for golfing there> what a joke\"

Hey CubFan...I\'m not a big Asmussen supporter but I have to admit this is one of the smartest things he can do...The only real excuse for Curlin getting beat on WorldCup day was the uncertainty of handling the track and the environment. He took that out of the equation with this prep race...Truly the weight is just a formality because he is really running against what seems to be allowance runners and should not even be asked to run hard, If anything it will be a plus when they take some of the weight off on World Cup day...

With that being said...I still think Asiatic Boy can beat him on World Cup day..

Lost Cause · February 28, 2008, 08:19:55 AM

The only reason to play the race is if you like someone to beat Curlin...If you have found a reason to play Familiar territory on top go right ahead, he does seem to be the only other runner with a remote chance...I\'ve seen all sort of \"can\'t lose\" horses get beat, why not Curlin...I tried and tried to find a reason to play against him but can\'t...Good Luck...The exacta looks pretty easy with Curlin on top of Familiar Territory...

elkurzhal · February 28, 2008, 08:45:00 AM

I think the only way he loses is if they put him under a strong hold early, and Imperialista gets away with an easy first mile. He\'s got a lot of distance lovers back in the pedigree and could move up with the extra ground. I may take a little stab if the price balloons up to 15-1+ or so.