Polydust and Anatomy of a Losing Wager

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Firstly, does anyone really think that running often on rubber coated granules is the way to ensure consistency in the surface and the animal? Who came up with that idea?

\"It is not in vain, sir, to extenuate the matter? Gentlemen may cry, Poly, Poly, but there is no race. The event has actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the sound of pounding hoofs! Our gladiators are already in the field! Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or existence so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of decay and uncertainty? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me Terra firma or give me death!\"...Chuckles Henry, (with liberties)

Now, the FOY. I tend to do the Commander McBragg when I win, but even more important is to so do a Freudian self analysis when one loses and I offer this introspection in the hope of illustration and hopefully edification. (at least for me...lol)

I have to start by stating that logically, I deduced that the winner of the FOY to likely be Cool Coal Man. Some may denounce that contention. All I can do is point to the stated wager. \"11 with liberal doses of 1 and 2\" But then, a funny thing happened on the way to the gate. Velasquez gave up Cool Coal Man and did not accept the logical mount from Pletcher. Instead, he wound up on \"Make the Point\", a horse he had ridden to a nice win previously. In my delusion, I assumed that such contorted jockey maneuvering had to indicate that Make the Point was more than he had to that point exhibited. There was no science to it. No body of TGraph Data to direct me, but nevertheless I took the leap of faith and made a two turn virgin breaking from outside with a bona fide speed horse inside of him my top choice. I was encouraged to make this dim bet also upon Make the Point\'s breeding. I\'m a believer that Menifee will get some Classic horses and I like his Phipps dam side.

Long story short, TGJB has been as clear as a clarion here that jockeys don\'t know squat and that the most important data that a handicapper needs to address is an accurate figure and projecting the next figure upon the basis of previous efforts. I\'m ashamed to save I strayed from that guiding principle.

CtemhC

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

\"Zito cautioned that his plans are fluid, because he would like to avoid running his 3-year-olds against one another if possible.

Another thing he likely will try to avoid is running in Derby prep races on synthetic surfaces.

\"I like natural surfaces, grass and dirt, not the rubber from your attic,\" he said.\"

http://www.drf.com/news/article/92540.html

You gotta admit, the man has a way of boiling it down.

[miff]

SYNTHETIC GARBAGE ON THE ROPES??
 


Return to dirt possible at Santa Anita
By STEVE ANDERSEN
ARCADIA, Calif. - Santa Anita has not ruled out replacing its existing synthetic track with a dirt surface, track president Ron Charles said over the weekend.

Charles told the California Horse Racing Board last week that Santa Anita will remove its existing synthetic track later this year, but did not say at the time whether another synthetic track or a dirt surface would be installed. On Sunday, he said the track has not finalized its choice.

When asked whether Santa Anita is considering replacing its surface with a dirt track, Charles said: \"The options are open. We\'re looking at everything. We don\'t want to be rushed into making a decision.\"

Santa Anita lost 11 days of racing in January and early February after the Cushion Track synthetic surface installed last summer failed to sufficiently drain following a series of rainstorms. The surface underwent a five-day renovation in early February, adding polymers and fibers from the Australian synthetic surface Pro-Ride. Santa Anita has had no cancellations since the renovation. Early Sunday, the surface successfully withstood approximately a half-inch of rain. The track went ahead with a nine-race program.

A potential return to dirt racing at Santa Anita has the preliminary support of Richard Shapiro, chairman of the California Horse Racing Board and a major proponent of synthetic tracks.

In February 2006, the racing board approved a mandate requiring California tracks that offer a minimum of four continuous weeks of Thoroughbred racing to switch from dirt surfaces to synthetic tracks by the end of 2007 or lose racing dates.

Shapiro backed away from that mandate over the weekend, but remained hopeful that Santa Anita would install a different synthetic surface later this year.

\"If, at the end of the day, Santa Anita comes forward and said, \'We\'ve looked at the options and we believe for the safety of the horse and rider that we\'ve got a plan to put in a dirt track on top of a good solid base,\' and they would put in a track that was safe, personally, I\'m not totally opposed to that,\" he said.

\"I think we have to have an open mind. I think what you\'ve seen, the synthetic tracks are successful, but clearly there are bumps in the road. I\'m not favoring one or the other. I\'m hoping that synthetic tracks are the answers. If there is a better option, I wouldn\'t be doing my job if I didn\'t listen to everything.\"

Four California racetracks have installed synthetic tracks in the last two years. Hollywood Park began using a Cushion Track surface in November 2006. Del Mar used a Polytrack surface for the first time last year. Golden Gate Fields installed a Tapeta Footings surface for its fall meeting last November.

Bay Meadows continues to race on a dirt surface. It received a waiver from the board because the track plans to close later this year.

Synthetic tracks are believed to be kinder on horses. They have led to larger fields, according to testimony presented by racing officials to the board at a meeting at Santa Anita on Feb. 20.

Shapiro said the installation of a dirt track at Santa Anita would not be approved without input from members of the industry, including trainers and jockeys.

Ed Halpern, executive director of the California Thoroughbred Trainers, said he would be opposed to a move back to a dirt track. As evidence that synthetic tracks have been a boost for racing, he cited the jockeys and trainers who spoke in support of synthetic surfaces at the Feb. 20 hearing, and the fact that workers\' compensation claims for exercise riders are down.

\"They hold great promise and it would be a shame to turn back now,\" Halpern said. \"That\'s my basic instinct.\"

Halpern acknowledged that Santa Anita\'s recent troubles with drainage, as well as maintenance issues at other tracks, have frustrated track executives.

\"I can see that they\'re tired of making changes,\" he said. \"They\'ve learned they\'ve got to be willing to spend money to maintain this track.

\"If maintained properly, they meet the goals that were behind the original intent. From a training perspective, they offer great advantage.\"

Santa Anita made up two of its canceled racing days on the Wednesdays of Feb. 13 and 20 and has a third makeup day scheduled for Wednesday. Charles said Sunday that the track would not ask for any additional makeup dates until field sizes improve. Wednesday\'s eight-race program drew only 63 entrants for eight races.

\"After looking at the entries, we\'ll take a step back and probably not be applying [for more dates] until we understand our inventory a little better,\" he said. \"We\'ve got to have quality cards before we\'ll start asking again.\"

The current meeting ends April 20.

[fkach]

Agreeing with Nick Zito about anything related to horse racing always causes me to revisit my position and thinking. ;-)

[richiebee]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
  Now, the FOY. I tend to do the Commander McBragg
> when I win, but even more important is to so do a
> Freudian self analysis when one loses and I offer
> this introspection in the hope of illustration and
> hopefully edification. (at least for me...lol)
>
> I have to start by stating that logically, I
> deduced that the winner of the FOY to likely be
> Cool Coal Man. Some may denounce that contention.
> All I can do is point to the stated wager. \"11
> with liberal doses of 1 and 2\" But then, a funny
> thing happened on the way to the gate. Velasquez
> gave up Cool Coal Man and did not accept the
> logical mount from Pletcher. Instead, he wound up
> on \"Make the Point\", a horse he had ridden to a
> nice win previously. In my delusion, I assumed
> that such contorted jockey maneuvering had to
> indicate that Make the Point was more than he had
> to that point exhibited. There was no science to
> it. No body of TGraph Data to direct me, but
> nevertheless I took the leap of faith and made a
> two turn virgin breaking from outside with a bona
> fide speed horse inside of him my top choice. I
> was encouraged to make this dim bet also upon Make
> the Point\'s breeding. I\'m a believer that Menifee
> will get some Classic horses and I like his Phipps
> dam side.


Chuckjinsky:

So when its all said and done, you drop your cash, you lick your wounds,
you blame it on the little man.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Heck, I know Velasquez ain\'t a brain surgeon. A top horse may get beat, but he doesn\'t chuck it in and give up with distance. Maybe Make the Point will never win again, then again, maybe he was injured, who knows.

It was a hunch play, made all the more risky by the scenario. Two turn maiden from outside vs. speed inside. But, you have to concede the timing was right to shoot at the favorites.

I\'ll take the blame for that race, but I learned a lot too. One of us will be a tougher competitor in the next one and it won\'t be Velasquez.

 richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>   Now, the FOY. I tend to do the Commander
> McBragg
> > when I win, but even more important is to so do
> a
> > Freudian self analysis when one loses and I
> offer
> > this introspection in the hope of illustration
> and
> > hopefully edification. (at least for me...lol)
> >
> > I have to start by stating that logically, I
> > deduced that the winner of the FOY to likely be
> > Cool Coal Man. Some may denounce that
> contention.
> > All I can do is point to the stated wager. \"11
> > with liberal doses of 1 and 2\" But then, a
> funny
> > thing happened on the way to the gate.
> Velasquez
> > gave up Cool Coal Man and did not accept the
> > logical mount from Pletcher. Instead, he wound
> up
> > on \"Make the Point\", a horse he had ridden to a
> > nice win previously. In my delusion, I assumed
> > that such contorted jockey maneuvering had to
> > indicate that Make the Point was more than he
> had
> > to that point exhibited. There was no science
> to
> > it. No body of TGraph Data to direct me, but
> > nevertheless I took the leap of faith and made
> a
> > two turn virgin breaking from outside with a
> bona
> > fide speed horse inside of him my top choice. I
> > was encouraged to make this dim bet also upon
> Make
> > the Point\'s breeding. I\'m a believer that
> Menifee
> > will get some Classic horses and I like his
> Phipps
> > dam side.
>
>
> Chuckjinsky:
>
> So when its all said and done, you drop your cash,
> you lick your wounds,
> you blame it on the little man.