Fountain of Youth

[drbillym]

Adriano has lots of potential, got the tune up race he needed, worked great,and can score at 20-1.  12 post not a help but not a big hindrance either as he will move late.  Graham Motion has been aiming for this one!  Will use in exotics with other suggestions you guys can provide.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

It looks like a good betting race with luke warm morning line favorites who appear vulnerable here. I have an \"instinct horse\" though can\'t say he\'s causing the hairs to stand up upon the back of my neck. We\'ll see as the track unfolds and the odds are determined. For now, this is my impression:

Cool Coal Man - I thought he was forging until he hit graded company in the Kentucky Jockey Club Grade II. That race stands out like a sore thumb. He was good before and after but his number for that race was flat. Why? He looked to be running his race and then he wasn\'t. Did he get into company he couldn\'t keep? or did he merely throw an off race? He\'s third choice in the morning line. Love his breeding, hate the musical jockeys.

Golden Spikes - Well, heres a colt that can scoot some. In their last race he was worn down late by the rail horse. That Hutcheson speaks volumes. Don\'t be surprised to see him winging.

Court Vision - The morning line favorite at 3-1. The \"master\" Jockey agent lobbied successfully to acquire this mount for Gomez, in the process giving up Z Humor and Monba. (Note that Velasquez is not up on Monba.) The colt has been consistent if unspectacular and Mott has \"indicated\" that this race is a \"stepping stone\". Maybe super-agent and his jock have different ideas. To my eye he\'s bred for turf. On a Pet Peeve impression I can\'t stand his name. Where did they come up with that?

Z Humor - When you look over his Past Performances 2 things stand out. Those things are Monmouth and Tampa Bay Downs off a layoff. The biggest negative is the Breeders Cup, but it was over a sloppy track at a venue he did not appear to relish earlier. Regarding Tampa Bay Downs, I can\'t count the number of good horses that have come into that track and been beaten. They like it and/or the surroundings or they don\'t and this one was coming in off a freshening. Pyro did go by him in the Champagne, but his one certainly did not give up.

Ready Set - Full to Composure, looked ready to compete and then ran into Cool Coal Man and Golden Spikes. Makes one wonder doesn\'t it?

Monba - Abandoned by Gomez, No Velasquez, Prado takes over. If I was ever going to get attached to a Plech steed, this colt might be the one I\'d get sentimental over. He\'s not a work horse. Not ablaze of early foot (Though perhaps capable of it) and if he is capable of it I think I know why. His grand dad was one of the finest horses to ever set foot on the track. Even when Grand Dad was beaten he was never defeated. He was always right there, coming right back at them. I\'m not implying that this horse is anywhere near that league, as the allowance squeaker points out.  I just kind of like him.

Anak Nakal - Talk about a nicely bred horse. At this stage, Zito is certainly looking loaded. You\'d prefer a once around but must be considered off that last race.

Elysium Fields - Two things stand out. Firstly, he\'s a late energy horse. Secondly, he\'s working like he\'s developed suddenly. In Greek Mythology, the Elysian fields, or sometimes referred to as the Elysian plains, were the final resting place of the souls of the heroic and the virtuous.

Halo Najib - right there with Court Vision. Beaten a couple lengths by Anak Nakal.

Make the Point - Not the greatest post, but whats going on with this one?

Adriano - Usually I like a Laurel colt to win there, a la Barbaro or Tapit. However, that last Turf race looks fast to me, even if there is something drastically wrong with the GP Turf surface. There is...its covered with grass.

Thats a start for discerning how I cash the Fountain of Youth.

CtC

[P-Dub]

Nice analysis CTC.

I\'m assuming that at some point you will actually make a selection before the race?? Sounds like many of these can be \"used lightly in exotics\".

[cubfan0316]

so chuck, which one do you like? you havent even narrowed it down. u r still the same.

[richiebee]

COOL COAL MAN (6/1): If looking ahead to the KY Derby, note this Mineshaft colt
hung up the fastest TG# of all of these and did it at CD. In terms of tomorrow,
TG thoro pattern (60 runner sample) says there is a good chance that this
one \"X\"s in FOY. According to DRF, Zito only has a 8% strike rate in Graded
stakes.

GOLDEN SPIKES (12/1): Bred for long, improved going long.

COURT VISION (3/1): One of only 4 stakes winners in the field, a multiple graded
SW at that. Won a glacial Remsen (Mott\'s Mushka won the Demoiselle the same day
in a faster time). Mott good bringing them back from a layoff, but for all of
his success, Mott not known for Derby colts. The 1:19 Payson Park breeze might
speak volumes about Mott\'s intentions for this race.

KENTUCKY BEAR (10/1): A fast mile in debut. How much further than a mile does
he want to go?

Z HUMOR (8/1): A graded SW on the basis of his dead heat Delta Jackpot win;
tired badly in his 2 other 2 turn races. On the one hand not badly beaten by
War Pass and Pyro in the Champagne, on the other hand could only dead heat Turf
War, who was no factor in the Risen Star last week.

READY SET (20/1): His 2 lifetime wins were in races where he was 3/5 and 4/5.
Some TG appeal in that he has a very favorable Thoro pattern, but even a new top
may not be enough here.

MONBA (4/1): His only dirt race was only average. As the Clown says in his
roundabout way, he is bred to go this far and further. Expect a late run.

ANAK NAKAL (6/1): His maiden win at Bel was visually impressive. In the Nashua
he was beaten by Etched, the Dubai/Wise Guy Derby horse. A graded SW at 2 at CD,
but this one not given an allowance prep as was Cool Coal Man.

ELYSIUM FIELDS (15/1): I\'d like to introduce everyone to the new Barclay Tagg,
who once was strictly a deadly turf trainer. Here is a colt bred both sides for
grass yet Tagg puts him right on to the Derby path. Although he has only broken
his maiden (over the course and with the addition of blinkers),he has worked
well into this race. He has closed stoutly into slowish fractions in races at
Calder and Laurel. He is not much slower than some of his more seasoned
competition and has a favorable Thoro- pattern. One of the few in the race to
be stabled at GP, where he is working quite well. Barclay\'s last 90 day stats
quite humble, as could be expected after his torrid late summer/fall run.
[CTC-- watch how its done] My selection in the race at odds of 10/1 or above.

HALO NAJIB (12/1): Shown versatility with 2 synthetic wins and a near miss in
CD\'s Iroquois, where he hung up a TG that makes him competitive with these.
Some value here.

MAKE THE POINT (12/1): Improved with age and going first out for KMac. Lack
of 2 turn racing experience, outside post and spacing of races are all
negatives, IMO.

ADRIANO (20/1): Makes his dirt track debut, and he is certainly bred for the
main.This is a late runner so outside post may not hurt that badly. Certainly
moving forward and will be interesting to see how he handles dirt.

Alls well that ends-- Court Vision and Monba program favorites have not raced
this year. Anak Nakal has not raced this year. Taking a shot with Elysium
Fields (15/1), Cool Coal Man (6/1),Ready Set (20/1) and Halo Najib (12/1) in
gimmicks with win bet on Elysium Fields.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

On a historical note, Plech had a \"marvelous\" day last year winning, among others, this race with Scat Daddy. King of the Roxy scored on that card too. The point being, don\'t put too much stock in race results at Hallandale.

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> COOL COAL MAN (6/1): If looking ahead to the KY
> Derby, note this Mineshaft colt
> hung up the fastest TG# of all of these and did it
> at CD. In terms of tomorrow,
> TG thoro pattern (60 runner sample) says there is
> a good chance that this
> one \"X\"s in FOY. According to DRF, Zito only has a
> 8% strike rate in Graded
> stakes.

I thought the last race was at least as good as the CD allowance. At Churchill he got away with soft fractions. In the last one, he motored.  


> GOLDEN SPIKES (12/1): Bred for long, improved
> going long.
>
> COURT VISION (3/1): One of only 4 stakes winners
> in the field, a multiple graded
> SW at that. Won a glacial Remsen (Mott\'s Mushka
> won the Demoiselle the same day
> in a faster time). Mott good bringing them back
> from a layoff, but for all of
> his success, Mott not known for Derby colts. The
> 1:19 Payson Park breeze might
> speak volumes about Mott\'s intentions for this
> race.

Compare the work lines of this one to Z Humor
 
> KENTUCKY BEAR (10/1): A fast mile in debut. How
> much further than a mile does
> he want to go?
>
> Z HUMOR (8/1): A graded SW on the basis of his
> dead heat Delta Jackpot win;
> tired badly in his 2 other 2 turn races. On the
> one hand not badly beaten by
> War Pass and Pyro in the Champagne, on the other
> hand could only dead heat Turf
> War, who was no factor in the Risen Star last
> week.

And on a third hand, If War Pass was genuinely flattered by the Risen Star, this horse has to receive honorable mention upon the results of that race.
 
> READY SET (20/1): His 2 lifetime wins were in
> races where he was 3/5 and 4/5.
> Some TG appeal in that he has a very favorable
> Thoro pattern, but even a new top
> may not be enough here.
 
> MONBA (4/1): His only dirt race was only average.
> As the Clown says in his
> roundabout way, he is bred to go this far and
> further. Expect a late run.

Well sort of, I also said \"be certain the surface is conducive to a late run\".

 
> ANAK NAKAL (6/1): His maiden win at Bel was
> visually impressive. In the Nashua
> he was beaten by Etched, the Dubai/Wise Guy Derby
> horse. A graded SW at 2 at CD,
> but this one not given an allowance prep as was
> Cool Coal Man.
>
> ELYSIUM FIELDS (15/1): I\'d like to introduce
> everyone to the new Barclay Tagg,
> who once was strictly a deadly turf trainer. Here
> is a colt bred both sides for
> grass yet Tagg puts him right on to the Derby
> path. Although he has only broken
> his maiden (over the course and with the addition
> of blinkers),he has worked
> well into this race. He has closed stoutly into
> slowish fractions in races at
> Calder and Laurel. He is not much slower than some
> of his more seasoned
> competition and has a favorable Thoro- pattern.
> One of the few in the race to
> be stabled at GP, where he is working quite well.
> Barclay\'s last 90 day stats
> quite humble, as could be expected after his
> torrid late summer/fall run.
>  My selection in the race at odds of 10/1 or
> above.

The other item that should be mentioned is the \"Rogues Badge\" This horse appeared to be a bit closer to the pace and finished stronger in the last. Though that certainly could have been a function of the distance. Still, he hasn\'t been able to beat any horse named after \"Shoes\". Thats somewhat portentous.

Didn\'t Nobiz Like Showbiz resort to them too?

> HALO NAJIB (12/1): Shown versatility with 2
> synthetic wins and a near miss in
> CD\'s Iroquois, where he hung up a TG that makes
> him competitive with these.
> Some value here.
>
> MAKE THE POINT (12/1): Improved with age and going
> first out for KMac. Lack
> of 2 turn racing experience, outside post and
> spacing of races are all
> negatives, IMO.
>
> ADRIANO (20/1): Makes his dirt track debut, and he
> is certainly bred for the
> main.This is a late runner so outside post may not
> hurt that badly. Certainly
> moving forward and will be interesting to see how
> he handles dirt.
>
> Alls well that ends-- Court Vision and Monba
> program favorites have not raced
> this year. Anak Nakal has not raced this year.
> Taking a shot with Elysium
> Fields (15/1), Cool Coal Man (6/1),Ready Set
> (20/1) and Halo Najib (12/1) in
> gimmicks with win bet on Elysium Fields.

[cubfan0316]

wow, a prediction.

[marcus]

everyones comments on the race seem astute . elysium fields imo seems to have the most  upside here - good numbers & pattern , gets weight . make your point\'s trainer profile has serious black ink 1st time route and the breeding to go along with it . i look beyond cool coal man last 2 races though they do send  mixed signals . good betting race - box the three and win bet(s) on any of them @ 15-1 + up ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> everyones comments on the race seem astute .
> elysium fields imo seems to have the most  upside
> here - good numbers & pattern , gets weight . make
> your point\'s trainer profile has serious black ink
> 1st time route and the breeding to go along with
> it . i look beyond cool coal man last 2 races
> though they do send  mixed signals . good betting
> race - box the three and win bet(s) on any of them
> @ 15-1 + up ...

I am leaning towards Make the Point, but no commitment just yet.

[marcus]

even at 12-1 ml , i\'d hate to get beat by that one the most ...

[richiebee]

> Still, he hasn\'t been
> able to beat any horse named after \"Shoes\". Thats
> somewhat portentous.


Chuckpasser:

I\'ve already got a call into RS Evans to see if Golden Spikes was named
for athletic footwear.

[xichibanx]

Cool Coal Man looks very tough to me...Maybe a small #1-10 exbox on the side.

[Uncle Buck]

Great betting race. Despite the #7 hole, I think Monba explodes down the lane with the poly to dirt angle. His daddy liked this track too as you remember. I will key him on top and box him with the #1, #3, #5, #8 & #11 in exacats and tri\'s.....\"And Monba CHARGES up past the front runner in a dominating performance! Wow - what a stretch run...\" - Larry Colmos

[Lost Cause]

I was trying to figure out who I liked more between the 1,4,7,11 .  The toteboard made my decision for me 8-1`on Cool Coal Man (#1), wow.  I\'ll play win bets on the 1 but box those four in the exacta, tri and super and see what happens..

Good luck everyone

[firmturf]

I went with Anak at 10/1. Just bet enough that if he wins he pays for the futures bet I have on him.