KAOS in California-Sunshine Millions To Be Run At Gulfstream Only

[Silver Charm]

This was the rumor flying around Gulfstream yesterday from some highly placed Magna sources. The resident Magna visionary is so concerned and PO\'ed over the track situation, the CHRB synthetic mandate and the fact he is losing millions with each day of closings he is threatening to move and move now.

Other concerns are no Florida based shippers will be going west to race on a synthetic surface they have never run on before, at a track where the conditions from one day to the next may not be safe, or end up with an event where only HALF the races are run because the west coast venue was closed.

Concerns on the Gulfstream front are the Donn Handicap is the following week and this would be back-to-back weeks with major full-card events at the same location. Perhaps a little too much too soon.

However since the West Coast has become a Simulcast Outlet Only as of late the safe bet is to move the entire event to Florida.

The Visionary feels as the CHRB decision making process moves at a crawl and a cover-our-asses thought process he may be forced to move on his own so plans can begin to be made with the big day coming in less than three weeks. He could then fill the California Card (if the track is open for business) with five horse fields of cheap claimers running in five furlong sprints which is what yesterdays card resembled until the jockey\'s pulled the plug on the day.

Also expect a few more major three year olds to be pulled out of California and shipped east as Derby preparation training has become next to impossible.

Stay Tuned.

[Bally Ache]

When it first became apparent that the situation at SA was the fiasco that it is, this guy Shapiro tried to act as the aggrieved party.  He wants to blame the installers of Cushion Track.  Even a casual observer can see that the source of the problem is a mandate by a government body that was rushing to judgment.  Why didn\'t anybody try to stop them, or at least slow them down?

California tracks need artificial surfaces like a moose needs a hatrack. If Del Mar has another year like last year it won\'t be a first class track anymore.  If Keeneland has another Blue Grass like last year, the horsemen will start to avoid it.

As far as I know, there has never been any definitive study proving that the main cause of breakdowns is track surfaces.

[richiebee]

I believe the \"rush to judgment\" you mention was politics in its purest form.

The various manufacturers of synthetic surfaces identify California as the
state with the worst breakdown problem. They all kick in some decent money, the
money goes into the brown bag and the brown bag ends up in the hands of someone
who has a lot of influence over the decision to take the whole state synthetic.

Facts I have none but my opinion is that in the end it will come down to what
I\'ve described above in one form or other. Follow the money.

I followed the Keeneland Fall meet and thought it was very playable. Very high
quality of horseflesh, good turf racing. The racing was so enjoyable to me
(and available at Living Room Downs) I was thinking that it would be nice if
they could extend that meet back into the last 2 weeks of September. To preserve
the Keeneland turf course they could run a couple of days a week at that
bobsled run at Kentucky Downs.

I like Keeneland because it is one of the last places in America where it looks
like there is a crowd at the races--even during the week.

Given the historical importance of the City of Lexington, I think that one year
BC has to stop there for a visit. They might take a hit live gate wise, but I
think this would be a natural.

Of course, by the time this happens the BC will be a 6 day event, featuring 2
days of thoroughbred world championships, one day of Claiming Crown races,
quarter horse championships, standardbred championships and maybe some mules.

Gotta go down to the mailbox. I am expecting a brown bag from the Lexington
Chamber of Commerce.

[TGJB]

As I stated at the time, I think the rush to synthetic was premature. They should have done it in stages. But I would be VERY surprised if Shapiro was in anybody\'s pocket, from dealing with him. He has  a day job, works for the CHRB for $1 a year, and is interested in stopping the drug problem-- more than most tracks are.

Though it was a bad idea to rush headlong, the people that make cushion screwed SA big time. They got the wax and the sand wrong, and from what I hear, when SA said there was a problem, tried to walk away. SA basically had to inform them that if they ever intended to get any business in this industry again, they better make it THEIR problem.

[bobphilo]

With all this abuse of the "rush to judgment" cliché, I feel like I'm back at the O.J. trial.
With fatal breakdowns at a record high, the CHRB was under great urgency to make a major change and as the TOC statement points out, the decision was made on the basis of good data. As a statistician, I can say without hesitation that the evidence was, and remains, compelling that all-weather tracks be developed and installed with all due speed.

JB, while I believe you to be honest in your reservations, I do see parallels between many who oppose the CHRB decision and those who initially opposed civil and gay rights legislation on racist or homophobic grounds and then switched to a "rush to judgment" criticism when their position became untenable, as a last ditch attempt to delay change. Especially those whose criticism against engineered tracks is that they are \"unnatural\".

As to whether Santa Anita Management or Cushion Track are most responsible here, the fact is there will be a learning curve and setbacks are inevitable no matter how much time is wasted and how many lives are lost before all the synthetic track critics are satisfied.  

Bob

[TGJB]

Bob--

The downside to civil rights legislation was what, exactly? The potential downside to rushing to put in all those tracks willy-nilly, as opposed to one at a time, or all using the same track, was a) adding randomness to handicapping, and b) what we see at Santa Anita. Nobody is saying synthetic tracks are not a good idea. But generally we test products before we use them.

[Silver Charm]

Implementing programs in any business take time. But nobody dumps the product on the consumer and says we will work out the kinks later.

Unless you are Microsoft and you are selling Vista.

McDonalds put in a new food assembly process years ago that was supposed to make things taste better, stay fresher and warmer longer and be served on order much more quickly. The testing process was a big success, the operational implementation was a total failure.

The entire Mgmt Group that voted it in was tossed out by the Board. After several years of work and a coffee product or two the company is doing extremely well.

Cushion Track may eventually be the savior but right now there are no scalps on the floor, which always makes the fan feel a little better or forgive a little more quickly.

And people like me are betting and watching less than they ever have. Which is how this game survives last time I checked..................

[RICH]

Hey that\'s a good one

poly = gay

dirt = straight

poly/dirt = bi

[fkach]

IMO, if this continues, CA dirt racing is going to sink into a permanent abyss but the area will eventually become the center of high quality turf racing. The best turfers will have a choice of turf races and/or races on artificial surfaces that masquerade as dirt races. \"Real\" high quality dirt racing is going to move east.

I predicted that last year as soon as we saw the first signs that many turfers handled the artificial surfaces well and that the races were being run a little differently \"pace wise\". We saw a little of that last year at Saratoga, but it will probably start to accelerate as more people start to figure it all out. The purses out in CA are still huge. So there will many opportunities to find easy spots for mediocre horses that show a fondness for turf and artifical surfaces (as you already know being one of the first to take advantage).  

What\'s going on out there is the best thing that ever happened to NY dirt racing.

If we could ever straighten out the drug issues in NY and have totally clean racing (which would automatically translate into safer racing and no need for these other surfaces), I might even become optimistic enough to think Spitzer, Bruno, Silver, NYRA etc... and the rest of corrupt scum around these parts couldn\'t ruin it (as farfetched as that sounds).

[bobphilo]

Jerry,

Deaths on California tracks had been steadily climbing for the last 4 years reaching record highs of 320 and 317 the last 2 years. Yeah sure, no reason to "rush into" making any major changes.
I agree that a product should be tested before it's used, so lets look at the numbers. In North America alone all-weather tracks have been installed at 9 major tracks. In a sample consisting of thousands of races and tens of thousands of horses the death rate has dropped an incredible 50% over-all, despite the fact that field sizes have increased with the new surface, which would make breakdowns more likely. that\'s not counting that the surface was already a big success in England.
Come on, even the ball busting FDA wouldn\'t't hesitate to approve synthetic tracks as a safe and effective way of decreasing racetrack fatalities.
You simply cannot say that the CHRB rushed into installing an unproven product.
Not that it seems to matter but hundreds of lives have been saved in Cal because of the the CHRB decision. I guess that\'s just not as important in maintaining biased, dangerous surfaces for the sake of \"handicapping diversity\".

Bob

Bob

[bobphilo]

That might almost be funny if it even made sense, but then you\'d have to get the analogy.

[Bally Ache]

Bobphilo

Where is the definitive evidence showing conclusive cause and effect relationship between breakdowns and track surfaces?  Nobody wants to see horses breaking down, it\'s a sickening sight.  It\'s easy to cast yourself as the champion of all that\'s right and good.  But this is a real world situation that has obviously not been handled well.

If you want to go in for analogies, I would say New Coca Cola versus Classic Coca Cola. Do you remember how that turned out?

[SoCalMan2]

I had originally thought the issue was what surface the horse trained on not raced on.  Back when all the injuries were happening in California, a lot of people were saying the problem was that the horses were subject to too much cumulative pounding as a result of day in and day out running on a hard surface.  A horse may only actually RACE on a surface 12 times or so per year, but will EXERCISE on a surface over 300 times a year.  Maybe it would have been possible to have training tracks made of synthetic but racing surfaces that stayed dirt?  

I recognize that building training tracks is costly itself, but again if it would have had the effect of saving lives and improving the sport, maybe that would have been the way to go.

If NY is thinking about following suit, maybe it can convert the Belmont training track and the Saratoga training track to synthetic but keep the dirt surfaces and see how that works.  

Imagine what the Santa Anita meet would have been like if the training track were synthetic and the training surface dirt.  Ownership could have ultimately converted all tracks, but it would have probably gone a ton smoother if they had converted the training track to synthetic before they converted the racing surface to synthetic.  

Also, how can the racing Commission mandate converting racing surfaces and NOT mandate converting training surfaces?  Seems illogical to me.  Especially since they have carved out the conversion requirement for places where horses run less than 4 weeks whereas most training tracks are used year round and are probably the ones most in need of conversion to save lives.

Finally, if saving lives is such a vital issue to the California racing commission, why on earth do they allow racing on Bute?  I seem to recall that in the 70s Bute was far more widespread as a legal raceday medication than it is today.  There was a movement in various jurisdictions to get rid of Bute as a raceday medication because it was believed that it allowed horses to race that were otherwise too sore to race and the feeling was that allowing sore horses to race led to too many breakdowns.  Maybe this was not a national issue, but in Maryland it was definitely an issue during the 70s.

[P-Dub]

fkach Wrote:

> I predicted that last year as soon as we saw the
> first signs that many turfers handled the
> artificial surfaces well and that the races were
> being run a little differently \"pace wise\". We saw
> a little of that last year at Saratoga, but it
> will probably start to accelerate as more people
> start to figure it all out. The purses out in CA
> are still huge. So there will many opportunities
> to find easy spots for mediocre horses that show a
> fondness for turf and artifical surfaces (as you
> already know being one of the first to take
> advantage).  

Actually, the cushion track surfaces have been pretty similar to traditional dirt surfaces. Horses of all running styles have been successful.  The only synthetic surface that helps turf horses is Polytrack.  

Disagree that this helps NY dirt racing. Cushion and tapeta, when properly installed, have decreased breakdown numbers and increased field size. Despite the ridiculous situation at the current SA meeting, Cushion and Tapeta have been a success.

[Silver Charm]

Bally good point and that may be where this is heading if you read between the lines of these press releases and crpytic comments.

The Breeders Cup lost a ton of momentum because of dreadful weather last year. This had nothing to do with the outstanding work by the Monmouth Park people or the great idea for a venue. Just bad racing luck as they call it because of the deluge and poor track conditions caused people to hold back on how much they bet.

Wait a minute maybe people hold back on how much they bet because races are being run over a Synthetic Surface they do not trust. Field sizes may be bigger but the quality of most Synthetic Grade Ones has been garbage for all intents purposes as of late.

If people do not think they are seeing the best horses in the world competing over an optimal surface in the best of circumstances they will save their money and gamble it on the Hambletonian or College and Pro Football.

TWO STRAIGHT YEARS ON DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND THE BREEDERS CUP IS TOAST