More baseball stats and Barry Bonds

[derby1592]

I know this is off topic but there seems to be enough interest on this board to warrant sharing this interesting link.

It looks like Bonds is having the best season ever if you put any stock into this method for evaluating offensive productivity.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/schwarz_alan/1436689.html

Chris

[Mall]

I\'m a sucker for fundamentals, so I certainly enjoyed watching Bonds during his stint in Pgh. However, in terms of charisma, excitement, character,etc, IMHO Bonds has never been in the same league as Clemente.

Which is beside the point we need to be looking at today, as I don\'t give the Giants, despite the way they\'ve been playing lately, much of a chance against the Braves. The only opening round dog which I think makes sense for a lot of reasons is the Cards, but the best I could come up with after almost 2 hrs of shopping odds in cyberspace was +170. If anyone knows a better price & could post the site before game time, it would be very much appreciated.

On topic, if a horse is 1w around both turns in a route race, & goes 6w in the stretch, I\'m estimating that he travels an extra 12-15\'. What would that translate to in TG pts?

[derby1592]

Mall,

I think the Giants can win this 5 furlong (whoops! I meant game) sprint over the Braves. The Giants have overcome some early injuries and are in good condition and peaking at the right time and they have been tested for class against top competition in the west. The Braves have been mediocre of late and have spent most the season beating up on weak east and mid-west competition (71-40 against them while only 15-16 against the west).

The Giants have enough power to jump out of the gate early and never look back (check their PPs over the last month and during their current win streak). The Braves are very tough to pass in the stretch with Smoltz in the irons but that will do them no good if they are looking at the Giants tail end turning for home.

The key will be who can get the early lead. It should be a good race but I like the Giants chances.

Chris

[TGJB]

12-15 feet is worth about 3/4 point at 1 1/8 miles, but a gradual swinging out on a sraightaway wouldn\'t cost a horse anywhere near that much, according to Pythagorus, one of our junior staffers.

[Mall]

Assuming that the east to west distance, the bottom of the triangle so to speak, is 15\'. Assume also that the gradual swinging out takes place on a linear basis over 10\'. Ask your young asst if the distance to 6w, the other side of the triangle, isn\'t 18\' according to the theorum developed by his celebrated ancester. Of course, the 10\' the horse has gone forward over that 18\' needs to be subtracted out, so the horse goes about 8 extra feet, or about .37 of a TG pt. Not much perhaps, but I\'ve lost & won a lot of races by lesser margins, which is not surprising. What\'s surprising is that we were able to figure this out w/o any help from an alleged genius who has somehow reached the dubious conclusion that a hot power hitting team with poor defense is going to prevail over a team with a vastly superior rotation.

[JimP]

By the way, the same math would apply equally to swingin IN as swinging OUT in the stretch (or backstretch for that matter).

[Alydar in California]

Chris wrote: \"It looks like Bonds is having the best season ever if you put any stock into this method for evaluating offensive productivity.\"

Interesting article. Do you? How much? It seems to me that this man has built a good timer. Now he needs to figure out how fast the tracks were and are.

[magicnight]

Who was that European horse ridden by Dettori in the \'98 Classic who tried to buy a mint julep on his way to the finish line?

How much ground did he lose?

While I\'m asking questions, how many times did Strawberry hit .390?

OK, how many times did Darryl hit even .290? (Answer: Once. In his last year. 49 ABs).

Love the site.

Best Wishes,

George Brett

[Alydar in California]

Bob wrote: \"OK, how many times did Darryl hit even .290? (Answer: Once. In his last year. 49 ABs).\"

Always knew Darryl was the type of guy who would walk away while he was at his peak.

[Michael D.]

Bob,
I will have the info on Swain by tomorrow...... the response will also take a look at the last ten runnings of the Classic, and see why the winners prevailed, and what path they took to get to the winners circle.

[Alydar in California]

Mall wrote: \"Ask your young asst if the distance to 6w, the other side of the triangle, isn\'t 18\' according to the theorum developed by his celebrated ancester. Of course, the 10\' the horse has gone forward over that 18\' needs to be subtracted out, so the horse goes about 8 extra feet, or about .37 of a TG pt.\"

  Mall: You asked about a horse that leaves the rail and goes 6w IN the stretch, which costs next to nothing unless it\'s done in a ludicrous manner. If it didn\'t, we would have to adjust the numbers for horses who break from the 12-hole and make the rail by the turn.

[Mall]

I guess it depends on what one considers next to nothing. An off the pace horse breaking from an outside post may have to perform the maneuver twice, & if anything  I think the example I used is conservative, as not every horse is capable of going 15\' east to west in a mere 10\'.

[TGJB]

One stride of a racehorse is more than 10 feet-- if he bolts he probably goes about 15 feet laterally while moving 100 feet forward, in a couple of seconds. To perform the maneuver you describe he would have to be standing still.
An extreme move at racehorse speed would be coming out 5 paths in a hundred yards or so, which costs virtually nothing, in measureable terms. But sure, it could be enough to cost you a photo.
 Take a look at an overhead shot of a racetrack some time, and see how long the straights are compared to the width.
Meanwhile, I have acess to seats in the main building. Is there a difference between those and nominator tickets?

[JimP]

We all understand that ground loss is a significant factor in making your sheet figures. There are multiple ways for ground loss to occur. Racing wide on a turn is clearly one of them. And the one most often discussed. But making the rail from a 12 hole start is also clearly one of ways to lose ground as well. Bearing out, or lugging in, in the stretch is also clearly one way. Swinging out, or swinging in,  in the stretch (or backstretch) to get by other horses is clearly one way as well. I believe you\'re saying that racing one path wide on a turn is a SIGNIFICANT loss of ground but that swinging out a couple of paths in the stretch is NOT SIGNIFICANT loss of ground. Have I understood your point correctly? Note, I haven\'t done the math. If you have, I\'ll take your word it.

[Alydar in California]

Mall: I remember this getting some attention when Gato Del Sol won the Derby from the 18 hole. It was decided that his post cost him about 18 inches, I think.