Reasons (Scientific Method)

[richiebee]

Please use this thread to give any insight you might have as to why TAP\'s barn,
which was visiting the winner\'s circle at about a 25% rate for quite a while,
has a strike rate below 10% for the last six weeks. Since the \"White Mercedes\"
line of reasoning has been exhausted, I would like to LIMIT THIS THREAD TO
SUPPLYING REASONS FOR THIS SLUMP WHICH DO NOT CONCERN
PERFORMANCE ENHANCEMENT.

IF you have facts, come forward. I guess rumors are acceptable because they
have been known to morph into facts. Humor is OK, too, as in:

1) All of TAP\'s top stable help left the racetrack and enrolled in NYU and
Columbia this Fall (OK, an INS raid is more likely).

2) TAP\'s hay and grain vendor left the horse feed business and opened a health
food restaurant in Brooklyn Heights; TAP hasn\'t been able to find feed which
his animals are happy with since then.

3) TAP\'s owners buy stock which is expected to win graded races; there are very
few or no graded races run at 5-1/2 furlongs, which seemed to be the distance
at which most races at Saratoga were run this year.

4) TAP is a big Met fan and is absolutely distracted by the Great Flushing
\"Metdown\" of 2007.

I\'m really looking for serious responses which DO NOT INCLUDE the White
Mercedes. Statistics experts are welcome to chime in. And if anyone can
document a similar TAP slump any time during his career, that would be most
helpful.

[miff]

Bee,

Add this to the puzzle. During the SAME time period, TAP was winning at(from memory) 25+% at Monmouth and Arlington Park.I guess he continued to dope them at Monmouth and AP but not at the SPA.

Word is that his two year old crop was very disappointing, for the most part, but many of his horses(except a few) were empty, race after race at the Spa and continuing at Belmont so far. Can\'t pinpoint the time but he has slumped before but not as badly as at present.


Mike

[rosewood]

I think these figures are close( taken from TAP website):

6/22/09 thru 7/25/09

total races=146
        win=32
         21.9 % included in this total are 57 stakes at a 35% win rate[ 20 out of 57]

[richiebee]

Miff:

You have already tainted my dope free thread!

But you and TGJB bring up valid points which would need to be part of any
scientific evaluation of TAP\'s \"malaise\": Some of TAP\'s stake horses, most
notably Lawyer Ron (twice) and Wait a While blasted off at the Spa. And I know
that TAP has been doing well outside NY (he has even won a couple at the
Meadowlands).

To combine what both you and JB are saying, Icy Atlantic threw in a very strong
performance in the Red Bank at Monmouth in the middle of August, equaling the
course record for one mile on the turf while running against some outclassed
competition.

Any possibility that TAP\'s NY operation is being sabatoged from within?

[richiebee]

Rosewood:

Good work. No substitute for statistics. I guess we can eliminate the theory
that TAP and his veterinary team were alarmed by L\'Affaire Biancobra and
immediately stopped any treatment regimens which may have been in the grey
areas of legality...

...or can we? Many on this board have discussed the fact that a lot of modern
performance enhancement is achieved on a harder to detect, time release basis
ratrer than the old fashioned, short term close to post time treatment. So if
certain treatments were ceased on June 22, the adverse non enhanced effects
wouldn\'t be felt until...?

Rosewood, you tricked me. By responding to the \"Reasons\" post rather than
the \"Biancone\'s Barn\" post, you\'ve caused me to dishonor my own request that
this thread be drug free.

[miff]

Bee,

Anything is possible but I do know that his help and assistant trainers LOVE to work for this guy. One of TAP\'S Asst Trainers has been a friend of mine for 15 years and  has nothing but nice things to say about the guy when TAP is not even present.At present the TAP barn at Belmont is like a funeral parlor.

There is one very glaring thing to me but how much it means I cannot really quantify. Johnny V isn\'t a shade of himself and is riding beyond badly most of the time.On that score, Jerry mentioned the wide trip Johnny V gave RTR but she will not perform inside(hates kickback)and is taken off the fence by design.

I think the posting off the TAP promo website is very misleading regarding recent results.His main operation is in NY and it has been doing horribly for at least two months.If Any Given Saturday throws in a real clunker this week, I would have to start thinking that it\'s not just a bad streak.

Mike

[rosewood]

I think if you back the states figures out you get something like 13%

[TGJB]

Miff-- right on the apples/oranges. If you break NY non-stakes out of the stats and compare them to stakes and out of town results, it\'s pretty extreme.

[richiebee]

Miff:

In the interest of science, win % for Gomez and others for Pletcher v win %
for JV for Pletcher over the time period in question?

[miff]

Bee,

Don\'t know but I do know what Johnny V was capable of as a rider. I know his dad was recently ill and he flew to Puerto Rico.I\'m certain he is not the same \"physical\" rider he was before he fell in spring 2006 and maybe he has bigger issues than riding on his mind right now.

For many reasons, I\'m an Angel/Johnny V guy but I fear he will begin to lose mounts and I know there are rumblings in that regard from certain TAP owners.


Mike

[marcus]

This year\'s 3 yo look a little better than those of the past several years IMO , but that applies mostly to the coasts and excludes mid-Atlantic . AGS has been my top percent all year - I\'d bet he probably continues to develop through out the season .

I wouldn\'t leave your chair yet  - even with a possible 1 game play off against the phils , the mets are bound to beat them ( or the nats ) one of these times ...

[fkach]

I still have the same question.

Does anyone know if there were any \"bugs\" affecting some of his horses?  

I\'ve seen some serious downturns in the past when a few horses in one barn got sick. Something like that would explain sub par performance in NY vs. elsewhere.

Obviously, the longer this downturn goes the worse it looks for him. However, we would need a stats expert to determine how likely this kind of downturn is when the hit rate is usually in the 25% range. Obviously, streaks are a normal part of the distribution, but this one is getting pretty severe and IMHO more of his horses have disappointed lately. Initially I thought people were overreacting because a lot of his horses at Saratoga were spotted poorly or overbet on his reputation.

[alm]

What is the point of trying to figure out why the guy is not winning at his normal rate if you are going to exclude a possible reason?  Especially when this site\'s guru has implied that illegal drugs are a factor in the business, whether or not he ever implicated TAP?

Weeks ago Miff made a hard-edged statement about the weakness of racing at Monmouth and Delaware, but now he assures us TAP is a nice guy and his winning in NJ proves the problem in NY has nothing to do with drugs.  It has something to do with John Velasquez\' personal problems.  

Excuse me, but don\'t you think a trainer at this level would use a different jockey if he was losing repeatedly with a guy who had a short term problem?  I\'m certain I would change jockeys if that was the cause of the downturn in my fortunes.

For sure, barns have always gone hot and cold.  Horses run through their conditions and it\'s natural to see them run for long periods before the connections drop them into cheap races.  In TAP\'s world, however, that explanation never held up, as he consistently won at historically high percentages.

I don\'t know why he won out of NY but not in NY this year, but I have assumed it had something to do with a \'chill\' placed on his barn by the authorities there.  He\'s sort of stuck, however, since his stock, across the board, can\'t be pulled out of the NY limelight to conquer second rate tracks.  He would have to take the horses to California or Kentucky to attack higher purse levels, but he won\'t do it as long as those states are doing testing at the levels they have for a few years.

Ask Jeff Mullins why he was dropped from 30+% wins to 10% in SoCal.  It\'s a tough place to cheat.

Unless the Breeders Cup authorities put a killer test operation into place at Monmouth, I think you will see TAP dominate the event, just as he dominated the regular meet there.  At least, that\'s the way I\'m betting it this year.

[miff]

Alm,

I think you don\'t get it.TAP has so many horses that he can\'t have them all in one place, stall space etc. The horses are evaluated and sent to circuits where they can do their best according to the competition/condition book. For example, Monmouth has weak horses so TAP\'s second string/third string runners dominated there as did NY Trainers Tricky Ricky and Kentucky Bruce,easy pickings.Much the same for TAP at the AP meet.

At the premier race meet in this country, Saratoga, TAP\'s stable not only did not dominate but underperformed for the first time in years.Exactly why is not known but he suddenly has quite a few slow horses in the NY barn, especially the  2yr olds. To you, without any knowledge whatsoever, its because NY is suddenly \"watching\" for illegal things which he can no longer use but in New Jersey and AP he is still able to use illegal stuff.I guess NY wasn\'t watching Billy Mott who\'s horses were running holes in the wind the entire meet, he must have been juicing,that crook Mott.


To most who know or deal with TAP, he\'s a nice guy, personable, sharp and intelligent.That means zero when it comes to whether or not he is using illegal stuff. I never inferred that being  a good guy on the surface meant he wasn\'t juicing horses. As far as Johnny V not riding near his best, you would not have a clue. TAP\'s loyalty to Cordero/Johnny V is well known and only owner insistence will cause a rider change.

You have no idea what, if anything, TAP is or isn\'t doing, nor do I.You completely ignore, or don\'t even know, that there has NEVER been a stable of runners put together like those TAP has had the past  6 years.The results achieved by TAP over the years is nothing special when you look at his stock and there are many trainers who could have done as well or better, imo.

He has one bullshit positive, which again, those who know very little should research in the NY STATE Wagering Board Archives.It\'s revealing.

Also,Mullins is NOT winning at 10% in Cali, it\'s higher, and New Jersey BC runners can/will be randomly tested for the bad stuff according to a ruling passed yesterday.

Mike

[Street Sense]

Mike,

Pletcher strikes me as the type who, provided he is who he comes across as, would care about his reputation.

Given that, why does he use Allday, knowing what Allday\'s reputation is?  Don\'t tell me there\'s no other good vets out there.  

Given that, why doesn\'t he do something proactive to clear himself of any suspicion?  He could be at the forefront of getting illegal drugs out of racing, pushing for videocameras in all the barns, detention barns, raceday drugs meted out only by the track vet, opening up vet records?  

That\'s what I\'d do if it were me.