Rags To Riches

[Michael D.]

what do you guys think?

spotted a good filly a length and a half in ground and two more in weight, and lost by a half a length in a decent 1:47.9 (respectable :12.4 last 1/8).

and it was the first time in four months that she ran hard all the way around the track.

good performance in my opinion.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

First off, you have to temper my opinion with the fact I watched Plech today and missed some decent opportunities to cash. There\'s just no way they can run Green Monkey at this stage and send him to stud a loser. I\'m stunned. Which indicates one of two things in my opinion. The Monk came out of the race poorly and may be done or Plech really can\'t resort to the good stuff right now for some reason. His early Belmont percentages are plummeting. I believe it was Miff that mentioned some undisclosed \"substance\" monitoring. Either that or Plech is reading this board and knows folks are onto him. I believe he\'s under 10% now.

If you liked Rags race, you have to love Tough Tiz\'s Sis too. She carried only 3 fewer pounds and was wide. They ran in the 2 range, maybe a shade better. Was pretty much wrong today, but thought earlier that Rags will not go on to confirm any kind of Belmont Stakes greatness. The Belmont was not a particularly fast race.

Michael D. Wrote:
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> what do you guys think?
>
> spotted a good filly a length and a half in ground
> and two more in weight, and lost by a half a
> length in a decent 1:47.9 (respectable :12.4 last
> 1/8).
>
> and it was the first time in four months that she
> ran hard all the way around the track.
>
> good performance in my opinion.

[Michael D.]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> First off, you have to temper my opinion with the
> fact I watched Plech today and missed some decent
> opportunities to cash. There\'s just no way they
> can run Green Monkey at this stage and send him to
> stud a loser. I\'m stunned. Which indicates one of
> two things in my opinion. The Monk came out of the
> race poorly and may be done or Plech really can\'t
> resort to the good stuff right now for some
> reason. His early Belmont percentages are
> plummeting. I believe it was Miff that mentioned
> some undisclosed \"substance\" monitoring. Either
> that or Plech is reading this board and knows
> folks are onto him. I believe he\'s under 10% now.
>
> If you liked Rags race, you have to love Tough
> Tiz\'s Sis too. She carried only 3 fewer pounds and
> was wide. They ran in the 2 range, maybe a shade
> better. Was pretty much wrong today, but thought
> earlier that Rags will not go on to confirm any
> kind of Belmont Stakes greatness. The Belmont was
> not a particularly fast race.


TTS ran well. she was very sharp coming in though. cutting back from 10f, perfect timing, great works; she was primed to run big. R2R was not.

we\'re probably looking at 8/5 or so in the BC, depending on who shows up. will not be an easy call

[miff]

Mike D,


She got run down from behind, weight or no weight, a rather common performance for a supposed champ who beat a top colt.Perfect stalking trip and did not really even run away from the 3 who ran harder than RTR for the first 6 f.

Maybe she was not wound tight and needed this one bad or who knows. Fast raw times all week at Belmont so 1.47.9 is ordinary. With the weight and ground loss she\'ll get a decent fig notwithstanding the common performance.

Mike

[davidrex]

Looked like the big filly was trying to bear in the entire stretch.
Even in defeat she looked much the best.
Guess Pletcher will run him w/fillies on Cup Day.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

davidrex Wrote:
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> Looked like the big filly was trying to bear in
> the entire stretch.
> Even in defeat she looked much the best.
> Guess Pletcher will run him w/fillies on Cup Day.

She never had a prayer with Handicap horses pointing for a race. What happened in the Belmont was she caught a bunch of weary 3YO colts who were over the top. It was the only reason she eeked it out.

Now she\'s got a battle royale with her division, but shes got a pretty good lead on them. Six weeks rest?......Really?

[spa]

She ran a great race,anybody notice the last tick before the start? Rags went 1/2 and the winner 2/1. Chuckles,money talks and you know the rest. On BC day, she is the most probable winner..............

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

spa Wrote:
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> She ran a great race,anybody notice the last tick
> before the start? Rags went 1/2 and the winner
> 2/1. Chuckles,money talks and you know the rest.
> On BC day, she is the most probable
> winner..............

I\'m not sure I agree that she will be the most probable winner, though I\'m certain the crowd will bet her that way. However assuming I reach that same conclusion I\'m sure I will assign a vastly different probability of that outcome. The key variable in my mind isn\'t Rag\'s ability, it\'s Plech in New Jersey.

I think we\'ll have a pretty good basis to factor Rag\'s effort off the Red Board tomorrow and to revisit some of her previous races too.

[marcus]

Granted in IMO Rags To Riches had never bounced and probably was due  . But given reports of fever not long ago and looking ( to me ) like a different horse today makes me wonder how much those last two races may have taken  . She seemed to change her action in the stretch and really labored - something was going on there + very clumsy or awkward at the start  . . .

[shanahan]

Rags was a sick filly and how often do they come back to win first out after the layoff?  Not often - I can\'t remember any...betting wise, it was a situation where you had to have a backup (even though the obvious alternative was only 2/1).  She will race before the BC, and then run the Distaff...winning by a very wide margin. She won\'t go in the Classic since her trainer already has that one wrapped up...my pik 6 post had 5/6, and that\'s why I had 3 deep in her race.  Good luck tomorrow.

[mchmura44]

RAGS TO RICHES LOSING TODAY SHOWS THAT THE BELMONT RACE WAS A \"FLUKE\" AND THAT THEY MADE SURE TO KEEP CURLIN BOXED IN.  FINALLY, A HORSE CAME ON HER OUTSIDE AND WENT BY HER.  SHE SHOULD HAVE BEATEN THAT FIELD EASILY ESPECIALLY THE FACT THAT IT WAS RESTRICTED TO HER OWN AGE AND SEX OF 3 YO FILLES. TAKE NOTHING AWAY FROM LEAR\'S PRINCESS WHO IS A NICE FILLY, BUT RAGS TO RICHES SHOULD HAVE BEATEN THE FIELD EASILY STILL.  DON\'T YOU FIND IT INTERESTING THAT ALL THREE PLETCHER HORSES OWNED BY MICHAEL TABOR TODAY RAN LIKE THEY DID.  THE GREEN MONKEY, THE LEOPARD, AND RAGS TO THE RICHES ALL WERE NOT FULLY CRANKED UP. I DO NOT REMEMBER THE LAST TIME IN A BIG RACE WHERE A PLETCHER HORSE WAS PASSED THE LAST 1/8 OF MILE.  SHE WILL PROBABLY GET A DECENT FIGURE OF 1 OR 0 BECAUSE OF WEIGHT AND BEING THREE WIDE, BUT AS FOR THE BREEDERS CUP, WILL SHE BE ABLE TO RACE WIDE AND OVERCOME THAT ON A SPEED BIASED RACE TRACK LIKE MONMOUTH?

[Barry Irwin]

Didn\'t like the way she was moving down the lane.

[stillinger]

Barry Irwin Wrote:
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> Didn\'t like the way she was moving down the lane.


She has a problem,
but the Monkey is a GQ, Vanity Fair, looking beast for sure.
It\'s too bad he can\'t make a living posing! Cut and cute. A girl magnet.
He had no idea what he was doing. I think he thinks he\'s a movie star.
One thing these two beasties share is big-time thighs. Awesome looking, the both.

But Kelso was a ragged looker, and that worked ok. These are spun sugar comaparitvely now, pun intended. Hard to feel sorry for the connections I guess,
but I do - especially a young trainer that hasn\'t had this kind of bump before really. Chuck will probably track me down and burn my dog. kidding him.

[RICH]

the crowd was jumping in the 4th, the paddock was packed, wall to wall people, all talking about the 16 mil Green Monkey. Who, by the way, looked kinda small to me. Had him tossed before I even saw him. The winner looked good.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Actually I love dogs, cats too. I\'d be much more prone to try French Style cuisine. Maybe down the road a little Green Monkey Steak Diane. Maybe it was a schooling race for the Monk, but its pretty clear the horse has issues. That being the case his last race may just have been run or maybe his next race at Gulfstream Park is the last one. If he\'s ouchy I think they made a huge mistake bringing him to the races. Seattle Dancer never ran and had a stud career. By going to Stud unraced there would have been diminution in value but running and losing and heading off to stud makes for a major loss. The first mistake was paying that much for a horse with that pedigree. The second mistake was running to further erode the residual value.

I\'ve noticed Maktoum and Magnier are not bidding on the same horses this year. I have to believe that is an arrangement. \"First horse is mine, second up is yours\". I don\'t think such an arrangement is illegal. Its just more evidence the most money does not always land the best horse.

Post Red Board I have concluded that Rags ran dang near a spot on 2, right where I stated she would run. That calculation fits very nicely with the Figure history of both the winner and third place Tiz\'s Sis. The winner is a nice horse but will in all likelihood be a little compromised by the Monmouth surface.

Rags will be very beatable if she goes to the dance.  

stillinger Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Barry Irwin Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Didn\'t like the way she was moving down the
> lane.
>
>
> She has a problem,
> but the Monkey is a GQ, Vanity Fair, looking beast
> for sure.
> It\'s too bad he can\'t make a living posing! Cut
> and cute. A girl magnet.
> He had no idea what he was doing. I think he
> thinks he\'s a movie star.
> One thing these two beasties share is big-time
> thighs. Awesome looking, the both.
>
> But Kelso was a ragged looker, and that worked ok.
> These are spun sugar comaparitvely now, pun
> intended. Hard to feel sorry for the connections I
> guess,
> but I do - especially a young trainer that hasn\'t
> had this kind of bump before really. Chuck will
> probably track me down and burn my dog. kidding
> him.