Saratoga Late Pick3/ Thursday

[richiebee]

A decent stake race sandwiched by 2 (what else) NYB 5-1/2 furlong turf dashes.

Looking at the races last night, part of the intrigue of the sequence was that
the two turf events had favorites who I saw as vulnerable-- Monster Drive in the
7th and Dickinson firster Fanfire in the finale.

Fanfire,who has a tremendous pedigree (Elusive Quality out of a Lear Fan mare)is
an early scratch.

Monster Drive is 2/1 ML coming of a good dirt sprint in which he fell into a
perfect trip when the other contender in the race, James Bond\'s Zipperoo, got
involved in a hopeless duel on the front end. Without disclosing too much
proprietary information, MD will likely turn out faster than some of his more
seasoned rivals. A look at Mott\'s \"last 90 day\" numbers shows that he is
winning at a 23% clip, with 63% of his runners posting a top or pair.

So what\'s not to like about Monster Drive? For me, his pedigree (Commendable out
of a Known Fact mare) is not screaming for turf. IMO his odds will be too short
taking into consideration his lack of turf experience and the always possible
cataclysmic turf trip.

The other logical contender would be Metro Meteor,who gets in the race running
for the 50K tag and is a prolific turf winner-- 5/12 lifetime. MM began his
career with Linda Rice, and not surprisingly was very successful in turf
sprints while being managed by a trainer who has come to specialize in these
types of races. MM has been a beaten favorite in his last 2 races, finishing
3rd in each and receiving no bid/ no rally comments from  the trackman at DRF.

MM had been claimed by the Winning Move Up in his first start of the year. In
MM\'s first start for Contessa, one month after the claim, he posted a new top;
he regressed from there and I am hoping the regression continues and he is a
beaten second favorite here for Scott Schwartz, who is not known as a turf
trainer.

Storm N Lightning ran 2 of the best races of his career over this course,
beating MM 3 weeks ago in a second place finish. With Desormeaux riding, SNL
is the only one of the 3 logical contenders who will be on my ticket.

What I am really hoping for in race 7 is some chaos. Look at the 7YO Dixie
Baghdad\'s races under Morales last year (7/8/06 and 8/16/06). Also will try
with Citifest for bombs away John Hertler (Citifest was close up to MM and SNL
last time at 33/1.)

In the Ballston Spa, My Typhoon and Wait a While need no introduction. Michael
D. has made a well reasoned case for Vacare. Meribel is 2/3 at the Spa. Here
again I will look for some chaos. Dance Away Capote competed in the BC Juvie
fillies in 04, and ran in the Go For Wand, Delaware Oaks and Alabama as a 3YO.
The wheels seemed to come off in the Alabama, and she was idle for most of her
4YO year and turned over to Barclay Tagg.

Tagg put DAC on the turf for the first time in her career in her last start, a
restricted stake at Belmont. DAC responded with a win at 33/1. Admittedly, DAC
is slower than all of the logical contenders here, and would not only need to
post a new top but would probably need almost all of the contenders in the race
to regress. But Tagg\'s last 90 day stat in terms of tops and pairs is
noteworthy, and DRF stats show him having a 33% strike rate in graded events.

Before he was the curmudgeonly trainer of Derby winner/folk hero Funny Cide,
Tagg was known in these parts as a turf miracle worker, and a miracle is about
what it would take here.

The 9th race is easiest for me. Simply, Leo O\'Brien\'s horses move up when
ridden by his son in law John Velasquez, so Patti Tiff should be a factor. Too
Much Zip is a four time beaten favorite, but with some bombs in legs 1
and 2, I guess he can be used. Will also toss in Aunt Teree and Greeley\'s Girl.

P3 3,6,9/1,2,3,4,7/1,2,3,5 = $60