Hard Spun Sunday

[spa]

Catch me if you can....................

[NoCarolinaTony]

I guess they did again.....

NC Tony

[APny]

I had hard spun and going around the turn he looked like he would win by 10....Especially since he was in a perfect spot given the track bias all day.  No horse who stalked on the inside part of the track ran well all day...which is why I was even more impressed with AGS\'s run.  No horse won from where Curlin was either...so I give him an excuse.  Monmouth is usually a very biased track...which makes it tough to play.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Hard Spun ran well. He\'s shown a lack of late punch in his recent races and Cable Boy did make him run early. The Fractions were legitimate.

You also had the Plech in NJ factor and a recent top out of Lawyer Ron in a Grade I that defies explanation.  

But regarding your contention that nothing ran well from inside and marginally off pace you are joking aren\'t you? Are you really telling this board that AGS\'s effort stands out because he ran inside from a length and a fraction back of two horses hitting it hard? Did we all view the same race? Did you factor the other races on that card? You aren\'t really going to move AGS up factoring a win against bias off that effort are you? For instance like when he runs in the Travers?

Inside was a very good place to be Sunday at Monmouth and horses liked it there from out in front and just off the pace.

The first rule of evidence is ascertaining what is a fact and what is not.
A handicapper can go a very long way by merely being able to ascertain the facts.

APny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I had hard spun and going around the turn he
> looked like he would win by 10....Especially since
> he was in a perfect spot given the track bias all
> day.  No horse who stalked on the inside part of
> the track ran well all day...which is why I was
> even more impressed with AGS\'s run.  No horse won
> from where Curlin was either...so I give him an
> excuse.  Monmouth is usually a very biased
> track...which makes it tough to play.

[davidrex]

After reviewing every race at Mon. on Sunday;I acknowledge that CTMC\'s last post is accurate and true.
As far as his attempt to be-little rather than correct a situation....well he\'s working on it in his spare time(spare time being that small window of opportunity that arises between his last attack and his next!)

[lfe2211]

Hard Spun is a very fast horse running on the wrong surface. Looking at his confirmation, stride and breeding (by super grass sire Danzig out of a turf stakes winning dam by hidden turf distance sire Turkoman), he should be a much better horse on turf. If you watch his action, the further he goes on dirt, the more his gait works against him. If I owned him, I\'d move him to the grass with a view towards running him in the Belmont Turf G1s in the fall.

[bellsbendboy]

Could not agree more with your assessment of Hard Spun.  Would add that his immediate family includes several champions including Little Current, Chateaugay and Primonetta. He has classic turf action and like his sire Danzig will probably never try turf.

The fall, turf, Grade I\'s at Belmont are The Man O War at eleven panels and the Joe Hirsch at twelve, both for 3yo\'s and up.  Darley bought the breeding rights and may want a graded win on turf.  The logical spots would be the Jamaica, Grade II, restricted to 3yo\'s going nine furlongs October 6th,  or perhaps a stab at the Shadwell at Keeneland the following week going a mile against serious competition.

The latter spot may set him up for a spin in the Breeders Cup mile which would lead to comparisons of a very similar sophomore, 2000 Mile winner War Chant who is also by Danzig, also out of a stakeswinning mare whose maternal grandsire is Roberto.  BBB

[ronwar]

Funny, I was thinking the same thing as they were runnng the race. I think he\'s a very good horse and like you said, not on his preffered surface.

[lfe2211]

Excellent choice bellsbendboy to run him in the 9F Jamaica (perhaps against Sunriver, NoBiz et al) to gauge his turf ability before pitting him against the older (and possibly Euro) G1 wolves in The Man O\' War and Hirsch.

[Lost Cause]

I have also believed this for a while to be true...especially considering how well he has done on the poly surface..

[ezgoer89]

I was thinking Hard Spun was very much like Lure.  

Awesome \"in your face\" speed, by Danzig, precocious speed on the dirt at 2.... Hard Spun\'s maternal grandma, Chappaquiddick, threw his mom Endear who was a Grade 1 dirt winner...she also threw Tiller who won and competed in just about every important distance turf race on the east and west coasts.  Chappaquiddick\'s dad, Relic, won French broodmare sire of the year in the mid 60s.

The makings are all there for Hard Spun to rage on the turf.  I know the owners are pointing to the King\'s Bishop, which is a hellishly tough race on a horse.  The Jamaica is 9f for $300k.... why not find out what you really have and ship for the G1 $1 million Woodbine Mile?  Love to see him cruising on the lead with those wide, sweeping turns.  Otherwise, skip the Jamaica, and run in the one mile Kelso like Lure.


bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Could not agree more with your assessment of Hard
> Spun.  Would add that his immediate family
> includes several champions including Little
> Current, Chateaugay and Primonetta. He has classic
> turf action and like his sire Danzig will probably
> never try turf.
>
> The fall, turf, Grade I\'s at Belmont are The Man O
> War at eleven panels and the Joe Hirsch at twelve,
> both for 3yo\'s and up.  Darley bought the breeding
> rights and may want a graded win on turf.  The
> logical spots would be the Jamaica, Grade II,
> restricted to 3yo\'s going nine furlongs October
> 6th,  or perhaps a stab at the Shadwell at
> Keeneland the following week going a mile against
> serious competition.
>
> The latter spot may set him up for a spin in the
> Breeders Cup mile which would lead to comparisons
> of a very similar sophomore, 2000 Mile winner War
> Chant who is also by Danzig, also out of a
> stakeswinning mare whose maternal grandsire is
> Roberto.  BBB

[Dana666]

Regardless of any track bias, Any Given Saturday ran a tremendous race. He beat two really good horses very soundly. I had a chance to be there in person, and I was very impressed physically by AGS -- he\'s got a chest like king kong, and what an impressive turn of foot! He\'s a true classic contender this year. The ride by Garret Gomez was perfect all the way, too.

Curlin is rather imposing physically as well though I think he matured very early and I would not expect him to get much better -- we\'ve probably seen the best from him (and that best is pretty darn good).

As far as Hard Spun, I still think the Derby knocked him out, and he still hasn\'t completely recovered (I know the sheets don\'t say that exactly, he susposedly ran faster in the Preakness, I think he was totally spent in the Preakness and expected his regression in the Belmont) -- he might also be a notch below the top colts, but he\'s still very good.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think its likely AGS topped marginally. Maybe I should say I think its likely it will be scored a marginal top. How he got there is for you to deliberate but his action probably wont play as well on other surfaces and its probable that  the next race is where to take a stand.

Its also quite possible the Triple Crown competitors needed another race after participating in every leg of the series. I think the place and show horses exceeded 1.49 and thats not particularly fast. Add to that fact the fickle nature of Monmouth and there could easily be a reversal.

Hard Spun is definitely a trier. He put away a Monmouth Track Record Holder, maybe he can spring a nice surprise with the Haskell under his belt. But I don\'t think you\'ve seen the \"A-Race\" from the Place and Show horses since a couple races back.

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Regardless of any track bias, Any Given Saturday
> ran a tremendous race. He beat two really good
> horses very soundly. I had a chance to be there in
> person, and I was very impressed physically by AGS
> -- he\'s got a chest like king kong, and what an
> impressive turn of foot! He\'s a true classic
> contender this year. The ride by Garret Gomez was
> perfect all the way, too.
>
> Curlin is rather imposing physically as well
> though I think he matured very early and I would
> not expect him to get much better -- we\'ve
> probably seen the best from him (and that best is
> pretty darn good).
>
> As far as Hard Spun, I still think the Derby
> knocked him out, and he still hasn\'t completely
> recovered (I know the sheets don\'t say that
> exactly, he susposedly ran faster in the
> Preakness, I think he was totally spent in the
> Preakness and expected his regression in the
> Belmont) -- he might also be a notch below the top
> colts, but he\'s still very good.

[Michael D.]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> But regarding your contention that nothing ran
> well from inside and marginally off pace you are
> joking aren\'t you? Are you really telling this
> board that AGS\'s effort stands out because he ran
> inside from a length and a fraction back of two
> horses hitting it hard? Did we all view the same
> race? Did you factor the other races on that card?
> You aren\'t really going to move AGS up factoring a
> win against bias off that effort are you? For
> instance like when he runs in the Travers?


charlie, you got very frustrated here. you obviously lost your two bucks to a Pletcher (again).

next time, don\'t appear so agitated when you post. that way, when you respond and say you didn\'t lose your two bucks, people will believe you. cause now, when you do, people are just going to think you are a fool.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Mike when I want crazy Bet Plech advice from an amateur...i\'ll give you a ring.

Don\'t hold ur breath.

Fools are proved by their wagers. You need a floppy hat with a tassel.

lol

Here\'s your Derby Key.

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,34811,34811#msg-34811

Now, to be fair, I did think Cowtown stood the best chance of the Plech bunch, but I certainly NEVER would have considered him a KEY. He was a longshot 3rd or 4th in my wheel.

What I\'ve ascertained is that you are a Plech Bettor. Thats all well and good. I know an old woman that will beat you like an old shag throw rug by betting Greys, but lets be honest, betting Plech is not handicapping. I\'ll get you her phone number.

lol

CtC