Hard Spun Sunday

[Michael D.]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
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> Mike when I want crazy Bet Plech advice from an
> amateur...i\'ll give you a ring.
>
> Don\'t hold ur breath.
>
> Fools are proven by their wagers. You need a
> floppy hat with a tassle.
>
> lol


see little charlie, your agitation speaks volumes.

you did indeed lose your two bucks to AGS.

[Michael D.]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike when I want crazy Bet Plech advice from an
> amateur...i\'ll give you a ring.
>
> Don\'t hold ur breath.
>
> Fools are proved by their wagers. You need a
> floppy hat with a tassel.
>
> lol
>
> Here\'s your Derby Key.
>
> http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,34811,
> 34811#msg-34811
>
> Now, to be fair, I did think Cowtown stood the
> best chance of the Plech bunch, but I certainly
> NEVER would have considered him a KEY. He was a
> longshot 3rd or 4th in my wheel.
>
> What I\'ve ascertained is that you are a Plech
> Bettor. Thats all well and good. I know an old
> woman that will beat you like an old shag throw
> rug by betting Greys, but lets be honest, betting
> Plech is not handicapping. I\'ll get you her phone
> number.
>
> lol
>
> CtC


my my, you are a tenacious little monkey. I like your spunk.

I keyed Pletcher in all three triple crown races. even a nitwit like you can do the math. it was a winning bet.

I like it that you study my every move though. keep it up little charlie, you will figure it out one day.

[alm]

Having picked all 3 Triple Crown races based on my \'who\'s drugging who\' and who isn\'t on any given saturday, I\'ll venture Pletcher doesn\'t enter AGS in the Travers.  Clearly his recent record in NY suggests the testing there is a bit ahead of his clever vet.

If he does enter AGS the horse is likely to run clean and lose.

Curlin is not likely to enter, but if he does, he will lose.  He perplexed his trainer?  Confused performance...did not handle the track or has an injury no one has seen just yet; condylar most likely as x-rays alone can\'t pick it up.

SS should win, but he looked more than a race short of his best the last time.  There may be a minor upset: Shug\'s horse.

[spa]

Cabin Boy came down with the \"Thumps\" right after the race......AGS is the real deal. I think he can turn the tables on Street Sense. We\'ve had some great racing this summer.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Thumps are brought on by racing stress. He thumped on the grandstand turn.

AGS? are you sure you just don\'t wanna \"be like mike\"? But alas, i know when I\'ve been bested. I\'m gonna join you guys. AGS overcame bias last, lets Key Wheel him and take down the Travers.

When we take our stand should we Key Wheel him in 1st? Or should we cover and Wheel him in say 2nd, 3rd and/or 4th too?

Contrary to the reports of some \"Amazing Kreskins\" I didn\'t bet on the Haskell and I\'m missing the gravy train, so I\'m with you, I just wanna know how we are going to take our stand.

CtMC

If you\'re a patriot there is something to be miffed about, but unfortunately its got nothing to do with Horse Racing.

spa Wrote:
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> Cabin Boy came down with the \"Thumps\" right after
> the race......AGS is the real deal. I think he can
> turn the tables on Street Sense. We\'ve had some
> great racing this summer.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Alm if you picked those 3 Crown winners all I can say is congrats.

I think its clear the defendant\'s modus operandi in New York is ship in with a rested and \"conditioned\" horse. But theres only so many lucrative and Stud enhancing 3YO races, so I think Plech will point to the Travers. But perchance AGS is not there lets bet Plech in the Travers anyway. If you can\'t beat them, join them.

alm Wrote:
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> Having picked all 3 Triple Crown races based on my
> \'who\'s drugging who\' and who isn\'t on any given
> saturday, I\'ll venture Pletcher doesn\'t enter AGS
> in the Travers.  Clearly his recent record in NY
> suggests the testing there is a bit ahead of his
> clever vet.
>
> If he does enter AGS the horse is likely to run
> clean and lose.
>
> Curlin is not likely to enter, but if he does, he
> will lose.  He perplexed his trainer?  Confused
> performance...did not handle the track or has an
> injury no one has seen just yet; condylar most
> likely as x-rays alone can\'t pick it up.
>
> SS should win, but he looked more than a race
> short of his best the last time.  There may be a
> minor upset: Shug\'s horse.

[lfe2211]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Having picked all 3 Triple Crown races based on my
> \'who\'s drugging who\' and who isn\'t on any given
> saturday, I\'ll venture Pletcher doesn\'t enter AGS
> in the Travers.  Clearly his recent record in NY
> suggests the testing there is a bit ahead of his
> clever vet.
>
> If he does enter AGS the horse is likely to run
> clean and lose.
>
> Curlin is not likely to enter, but if he does, he
> will lose.  He perplexed his trainer?  Confused
> performance...did not handle the track or has an
> injury no one has seen just yet; condylar most
> likely as x-rays alone can\'t pick it up.
>
> SS should win, but he looked more than a race
> short of his best the last time.  There may be a
> minor upset: Shug\'s horse.

alm,

I think \"Old School\" Carl Nafzgar (said fondly)  always has SS 3/4 cranked for prep races and uses them to crank him fully for the big race. Plus, though I love the Shugster, the Phipps \"gene pool\" is so overwhelmingly weighted towards filly superstars, it\'s only about once a decade or so that they produce an A+ male superstar a la Easy Goer and Coranado\'s Quest. I don\'t think Sightseeing is this decades male superstar but 10F should suit him well. Analysis of the Phipps breeding stock is a fascinating subject unto itself which many equine breeding \"experts\" have explore endlessly. There\'s just something magical in those Phipps double X chromosomes.

[alm]

I once read that the elder Ogden never kept a broodmare that didn\'t at least win a 9 furlong or longer race.  He wasn\'t so much looking for families as for the XX chromes that have been proven (by the Australians) to carry stamina traits.

I appreciate the approach Nafzger takes in prep races.  I have cashed more than a few bets on his horses, third off the layoff.  

However, SS looked to me to be struggling and far short of his best condition.  I don\'t think Shug\'s horse is that good, but a lot of average horses have won the Travers in the past.  It\'s sort of a mid-season survival of the fittest race in some years.

As for my picks in the Triple Crown, read my prerace posts on this site.  I don\'t think I wrote about the Derby, I just bet the hell out of SS, having read that they had significantly advanced drug testing on the grounds for the race.  That eliminated all of TAP\'s flock and SA\'s Curlin.

At Pimlico I reasoned testing would be lax and that Curlin was a great threat.

At Belmont I said the filly and Curlin would run their eyeballs out and that she would have a slight edge.

Since TAP seems to be realizing somewhat inhibited results at Saratoga, I\'m guessing they\'ve got him on the radar.  AGS won\'t do it if I\'m right.

[jimbo66]

Come on, can\'t we do anything on this board besides talk about who is allegedly using drugs.  

Alm, if you came up with Any Given Saturday based on your drug voodoo logic, congratulations, but you won for the wrong reason.  The horse was the best horse on the figures and I am not redboarding.  If you look back at the thread \"Any Given Saturday Wins on Wednesday\", you will see I said he will win the Dwyer, run a negative number doing so, then beat SS and/or Curlin this summer.

The horse ran a negative 3 in the Dwyer, which is NY, so I am assuming you lost a ton of money on him that day, since Pletcher can\'t win in NY because of the great drug testing we have.  AGS had 4+ weeks into the Haskell, off the negative 3.  He had the rail and was getting 4 pounds from Curlin.  He figured to get a better trip than Curlin, and Curlin only had one figure, his preakness race, which would be competitive with AGS\'s Dwyer figure.  And, even if Curlin ran the negative 3 he ran in the Preakness, AGS\'s pairing up his negative 3, with the rail, was going to beat him anyway.  Not to mention that with all the hard racing Curlin had this year in a very short period of time, he is a great bet against the rest of this year.  Many handicappers on this board thought Curlin was a bet against in all three triple crown races because of the lack of foundation and the taxing efforts he had in each race, off tight spacing.  However they were wrong (TGJB is in this group of handicappers I believe).  However, he may have shown some of that effect in the Haskell, or maybe not.  I don\'t know what the figure is going to be, but he MIGHT have run his secondary top, a \"0\", which is not a bad race, but AGS may have paired his negative 3, or at least run close to it.  Anyway, that is supposition, we will see when Jerry does the figures.

As for avoiding the Travers because of drug testing.  Non-sense.  I am assuming since you are posting on this board, you have some knowledge of spacing and the impact of big efforts.  Look at AGS\'s sheet.  The horse relishes spacing.  He probabaly ran a very big effort in the Haskell, which will make 2 top effots in the past 30 days.  Why run back in 20 days, which is relatively short rest, against Street Sense, who will have the edge of a race over the track at Saratoga, an extra week of rest, plus having run a relatively slow prep race which won\'t take much out of him.  

If I am training AGS, he runs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, then the Breeders Cup Classic.  If he wins both, he might be 3 year old of the year, plus a shot at horse of the year.  As much as I would like to see it, running back in 20 days in the Travers doesn\'t help him that much and has more downside than upside. (spots too much of an edge to STreet Sense)

Let\'s talk a little about handicapping on this board.  Saratoga is here, the best race meet on the planet (sorry Delmar fans).  Lots of competitive races and chances to make money.  No need to play conspiracy theory every day on the board.

[Flighted Iron]

Well said

[fkach]

Based on that post, I must assume that Jimbo just got a job working for Pletcher. ;-)

Jimbo, Don\'t you know that the only reason most people don\'t pick the winner of every race is drugs. ;-)

[davidrex]

I truly believe the conspiracy element is part of a handicapper\'s make-up.
Solitary thinkers coming together only when negative energy is flowing.
So many hits for scandalise accusations,so few hits for handicapping.
Me thinks Mr. Murdoch might be interested in this Co.

[TGAB]

I can attest to the fact that Jimbo was waiting for AGS to run and win the Haskell. We sat together at Carolina Barbeque at Sar the weekend before the race and he told me then that AGS was gonna whip Curlin, Hard Spun and the others. You were right Jimbo, nice hit.

[marcus]

AGS\'s July 4th  3 point top IMO at that time of his career as a mid-season 3 yo  , off an O X O type Pattern and in the overall context of his Sheet ,  doesn\'t seem suspicious - those 2 yo numbers do however raise some general questions and concerns with me   ...

Don\'t know what he ran Saturday but I personally gave him about the same chances of running with-in aprx 2 pts of his top as the group of horse\'s used in the 3 yo negative top studies .

[fkach]

To me, AGS\'s PPs look a lot like Flower Alley\'s.

Both showed some early ability and development (AGS was better early).

Both ran a lot better in the Derby than it looked on paper.

Both were freshened up a little and then exploded forward in the summer.    

I just think AGS started out a little better and is a little better now.