Synthetic Surfaces and New York Racing

[basket777]

Del Mar

Monday had a chance to stop work early. Went to the meadowlands and bought the sheets for DelMar  The from on those races were right on at least Monday.

The payout were very generious based upon the odds.

I have not been a fan of poly but maybe just maybe .

look at the numbers for monday do the numbers and make a graph who has a chance to win.  again the numbers were right on

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
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> But from what this bettor has seen, the races are
> not formful and I don\'t think the figures are
> holding up as well. People can disagree with that
> and I guess since P-Dub cashed a few tickets last
> week at Delmar, so he is a fan of it.  

Jimbo,
I am not a fan of it. Richie pointed out several reasons its probably here to stay. I\'m not going to stop playing the tracks I\'ve played all my life because of the surface changes. I\'m going to adapt and try to figure out a way to be successful. I had success last week using the data, as did another poster on this board. Did you take the time to Redboard the races from Del MAr last week??
 
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
>  My final observation on synthetic is that the
> opening week of Del Mar featured
> 3 $100 plus mutuels all on the synthetic surface.
> I am fairly certain, without
> doing the research, that there were entire meets
> at Del Mar where there weren\'t
> 3 $100 winners.
>
>  I wouldn\'t be surprised if even the poly
> proponents such as P-Dub are treading
> lightly, waiting to see a larger sample.

Richie,
Again, I\'m not a Poly propronent.  Those $100+ races you noted were for the cheapest horses on the grounds.  Wouldn\'t you agree that those types of horses are the most unpredictable horses on the grounds??

I am treading lightly, but I didn\'t fly to San Diego for 4 days to sit on my hands. I used the TG data and had some nice wins.  All I\'m saying is that it seems that several people around here are jumping to conclusions without giving the new surface a chance. All I hear is how the Keeneland Poly is death to frontrunners and its all about closers. There were several horses on the lead that either won or came damn close the first week of Del MAr.

Mike,
People that love animals aren\'t bad people. This game is about the horses, not the whales. Bring your stable to Del Mar, train over the old surface, have your horses break down, then tell me how great that surface is for racing.

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

I didn\'t need to redboard Delmar, I bet it for a couple days.  And I certainly agree that a few days is not a full sample.  Most of my distaste for poly is based on the Keenland meet.  You are right, the writing is on the wall, poly is here to stay.  Bettors have the choice to adjust and look for winning theories or stay away.  For now, I stay away and it sounds like you choose to adjust.  Fair enough.

Your last statement was to Miff, but I feel compelled to make one comment, albeit it will sound a bit callous.  The \"sport\" is not just about the horses P-Dub.  This isn\'t the Middle East where the owners run purely for sport and there is no gambling.  The reality we live with is that this is a business that involved horses.  Without gamblers (and Miff\'s whales), the sport doesn\'t survive in the U.S., no matter how beautiful and fast the horses are.  I am certainly not proposing we make the sport more dangerous for the animals by running on unsafe surfaces. However, does everybody really believe that the reason we have breakdowns is purely related to the dirt tracks being less safe than poly?  Nothing to do with horses receiving drugs that mask physical problems and reduce their sensitivity to pain, thus making them run faster than they normally would and thus enhancing the chance for serious injury?  Does this have anything to do with it?  With the recent cobra venom found in repeat offender Patrick Biancone\'s barn, I am not making \"wild and unfounded\" accusations.  I am not saying everybody is doing, but it seems like at least some people are doing it.  

I just question whether poly really is the panacea for \"safer racing\" that the industry is selling it as.  Or is it a quick fix/patch that won\'t stop the problem and scares away at least some of the bettors that fuel the financial side of this sport.

Off my podium now.  Good luck betting the poly.  You may neeed it!

[fkach]

>I just question whether poly really is the panacea for \"safer racing\" that the industry is selling it as. Or is it a quick fix/patch that won\'t stop the problem and scares away at least some of the bettors that fuel the financial side of this sport.<

It\'s both.

No one wants to be the first to make the decision that racing must be drug free the way it is for most of the rest of the world. So they found a way to continue abusing the horses with drugs and still reduce the breakdowns. In the mean time, we (the players) get stuck with an ugly cross between dirt and turf racing that lacks both the brilliant speed of high quality dirt racing and furious finishes of high class turf racing. It might be possible to beat the new game by indentifying the best even-paced plodder, but they are never going to get me to go to DelMar to watch this crap racing again.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jimbo

All points were well made. I guess if we look at it strictly from a data point of view, I believe both the Kee meet and the HOL meets betting handles were well above the previous years totals. I know the KEE meet was impaxcted by cold nasty rainy weather this year and still the handle was up.

I think everyone is still hung up the crazily run Bluegrass Stakes as a proxy for the whole.

Anyway lets have fun betting Saratoga (and hopefully winning), the way all race meets should be.

NC Tony

[miff]

Paul,

The animal loons that I refer to are not animal lovers, they are people who put animals BEFORE the human element. Incidentally, there is no data to confirm that a horse who breaks down on dirt would not have on Poly. Thats a myth from the track managers who do not want to ban/reduce drug use or have super testing(very expensive).Poly is strictly an economic thing for the disingenious race track managers who could care less about the horses and only about their bottom line.

In your poly endeavors you may wish to know ( from a good jockey riding at del mar) that some jocks are NOT persevering with horse getting \"late\" because the stewards are too stupid to comprehend the exhaustion level the horses are feeling at Del Mar,so far. They are putting up lots of inquiries(it\'s because of the  swerving that many horses are experiencing late in the races)Good luck!!

Mike

[NoCarolinaTony]

Miff,

isn\'t Keeneland a not for profit organization?

NC Tony

[miff]

NC Tony,

Don\'t know for sure but think so, the very powerful Kentucky horse lobby is strong with the state government.John Veitch is the best thing that has happened to KY racing and he will be a pit bull on the drug thing going forward but testing money is always an issue, for profit or not.

Mike

[P-Dub]

All,
Respect everyone\'s view on this subject.

Mike,
I enjoy listening to your replies, even those I don\'t agree with. You make many valid points....Good luck this Summer.

[cubfan0316]

question? is churchill going poly?

[cubfan0316]

funny,horses dont close, the leaders just quit.

[imallin]

Back up the brinks truck?

There\'s no brinks truck when overbet favorites go to the lead and just keep going and pay 4 dollars.

Personally, i like polytrack. Poly turns a 6 furlong race into a route and a conventional dirt track turns a 6 furlong race into a 2 furlong race. Is that what you guys like, whoever gets the lead wins?

I believe that handicappers who are professing their distain for polytrack and criticizing the \'aesthetic beauty\' of horses completing 6f in 110 rather than 114 are handicappers who are losing money betting on the wax.

Plain and simple why polytrack is better for the horseplayer is because it makes the handicapping process harder. When the handicapping process becomes harder, the rewards to master that surface become greater. Personally, i like hard, i don\'t want easy. I don\'t want the entire world to know that the 6-5 shot is lone speed and thats the \'right\' horse to play. Forget that, i want kaos. I want to be able to bet on a 20-1 shot and feel like i have a shot to win, regardless of running style.

As far as blaming the \'staggerthon\' as to why you hate polytrack thats a bunch of bunk. You would all be lined up to bet this place if you had the key to the vault.

Anything that can produce the odd 60-1 shot to rally from dead last and win is music to my ears and something i\'ll embrace.

[colt]

Stop trying to ram it down our throat that everyone must like Polyquack...As for P-dub, stick to what you know son...NOT what you THINK you saw/heard/know...I will put you ass to shame...

[marcus]

Tough to pass on this thread ... A few points while Saratoga is warming up  , and short of sounding redundant -
1 ) the new surfaces remind me  of the AQU Inner track bias at times in reverse or inverted terms  . IMO - Horses are perhaps running a bit faster on the front end than normal ( relatively speaking ) because of the surface , and to throw around  a baseball analogy -  \" speed slows the game down \" because those on the front end are often cooked coming down the stretch - like one of those slowly cooked hot dogs , sliced down the middle - the long way , that richiebee was mentioning not to long ago .
2 ) Question - Which turf course at Belmont gets torn up and transformed into a Dirt Surface so that the Main Track can be converted to Poly  ?
3 ) The way I see it , Saratoga should not be exempt from Poly if is to actually be a boutique centerpiece for NY Racing
4 ) I\'m not sure what to make of Poly one way or the other - except that it\'s another factor to deal with when handicapping .

[NoCarolinaTony]

What is funny?