ROTW; How Much More Likely?

[Mall]

According to the analysis, Capsized is \"much more likely\" to bounce than pair. However, according to my interpretation of the TG figures(the others are dramatically different), Capsize can bounce & still win and/or fill out the exotics, assuming the so called \"big bounce\" is avoided. Based on research I have seen, the chance of Capsized running within 2 pts of his last race is about 47%, while the chance of a big bounce is around 22%, which means that it is a chance worth taking at 12-1. Ms. Lewis has a 43% win rate at the meet & while she has never won a graded stake, her itm% for the last 9 is 44%. One of the reasons offered in support of a bounce is that Capsized had soundness issues, evidenced by 5 starts in a 2 yr stretch. But Pyrus, the horse Capsized beat last time from the 10 hole, which is said to be a \"contender at a price\", had 3 races over a two yr period if the same logic is used. Capsized\'s no. of starts since he returned to the races more than a yr ago is very much in line with the other starters in this race. The Qs, which are always there at 12-1, that I see are the fact that Santos has taken the horse wide each of the 3 times he got the mount & the possibility that the horse moves up just a bit if the turf is off.

BTW, it\'s probably none of my business, but where is it written that the ROTW has to be a stakes race? Why not pick the race or races which illustrate your theories the best & more importantly, offer the best betting opportunities? The 3rd & 6th tomorrow seem to me like they might fit into the latter category.

[derby1592]

Mall,

I have to agree with you on Capsize. I think he may run well but, as pointed out in the ROTW analysis, I think Pyrus looks like the play in this race. On the rail at the weights and the clear speed of the race not to mention that he looks to be sitting on a big race based on his current pattern and recent pace figs. I peg him as the most likely winner of the race and at anything near his morning line of 20/1 he is a great bet. I also have to agree with the ROTW analysis on Baptize. He has a good shot to run well. The two favs look very vulnerable. This looks like a very good race to attack.

Good luck tomorrow.