Chuckles,now or never more......

[spa]

What\'s the bet? Before the race.....you\'re tied with Andy B..............

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m actually way ahead of Andy B, but this Belmont is a good one.

I\'ve been studying fillies in Triple Crown events because of Rags to Riches entry. The only filly to try and ambush the Belmont Stakes was My Flag and she ran a credible third only beaten 5 lengths.

Unually, fillies that fair well in the Triple Crown are front end fillies. Its my belief they generally steal the race and it may be possible the colts don\'t really want to run by the fillies, but I\'m less certain of that.

With Rags to Riches you do have the Genuine Risk running style. Risk rated and passed the colts late. Howver, Risk certainly caught the weakest bunch of colts in the Derby I\'ve ever reviewed (That Derby was before my betting time so Maybe \"Kelso was a Target Alm\" can provide some indication of the class of that lot. The key difference to me is that Genuine Risk took the colts on in every dance on the card. The same was true of Winning Colors. Rags to Riches is an ambusher, shes trying for a one time Belmont intervention. I also think this crop is tougher than what Risk faced. Additionally, theres no reason to believe Rags filly competition was stellar. Finally, drugs off may be how Pletcher has to run her. I think she\'ll be third choice at about 6-1. The real value in the race may be excluding her from the exotics, or from as much of the exotics as is possible.

Either you play Curlin to win, or you play him for enough of a regression to get someone else up. My gut feelign is that it will be a chore to bounce Curlin out of the exotics, but if someone has the courage to play it that way you could have the number 1 and number 3 choices out of the money. Which leaves the decision about what to do about the number 2 choice.

Handicapping Hard Spun has to begin with the fact that he is the only horse in the race that has beaten Curlin. He was also clearly urged into a very hot pace far too early last, despite the pleas and protests of some that the horse moved himself. I am very negatie on the jockey problem and the fact his lone work does not look inspiring to me. If Curlin does slip who will he have to hold off?

You have to start with C P West. He\'ll be close and that could play in his favor. I like his breeding but must concede his tail female has produced Nada for four generations. He\'s also coming off a race big enough to bounce upon. Tough toss from the perfecta, but you can\'t bet them all and thats the way I\'m leaning.

Tiago intrigues me most. Jerry was all over him and that only elevated him from where I factored. He could win and I would protect minimally with him atop. Pace will be a factor. He will have to get a good pace and if he does get up it will be very late in the race.

I also think Slew\'s Tizzy could surprise. I\'m higher on him to hold major exotics placing than to win, but he could win.

My exotics will follow this flowchart

Hard Spun
Tiago

Hard Spun
Tiago
Curlin
Slew\'s Tizzy

Hard Spun
Tiago
Curlin
Slew\'s Tizzy
Wild Guy
CP West

ALL





spa Wrote:
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> What\'s the bet? Before the race.....you\'re tied
> with Andy B..............