Does Spacing Between Races Still Matter in the Triple Crown?

[jimbo66]

I saw a post by Uncle Buck titled \'Serious Questions\', where he questioned if any serious Thorograph users bet Curlin in the Preakness.  I really assumed that most  \"serious Thorograph\" players would have thrown him out. When I say \"serious player\" I don\'t mean quantity of money bet, but a sheet/graph purist, not a pace handicapper or trip handicapper or any other type of handicapper, but a \"purist\" if you will.  Before I read the postings, I really had to think \"no\" would be the answer to this question.  This horse comes out this year, with no foundation at 2, runs 4 straight 0\'s, with his last race before the derby only 3 weeks before, and he got 2 weeks into the Preakness.  Street Sense was only making his 4th start of the year, versus 5th for Curlin and all he did was pair his 2 year old top, he had to be more likely to run a new top.  Hard Spun had 6 weeks into the Derby, he had to be less likely to regress.  Circular Quay had 8 weeks into the Derby, he had to be less likely to regress as well.  

Well, obviously, Curlin ran his eyeballs out and I would have to assume a new top.  And he will run AGAIN in the Belmont and I will dogmatically throw him out again, as well as Hard Spun.  

But I wonder if the game isn\'t changing.  Rest and spacing certainly has been MEANINGLESS this year, with a capital M, as far as the triple crown races go.  Pletcher\'s three legit shots came into the Derby off great \"spacing\" with 8 weeks for Circular Quay, 5 for Scat Daddy and 4 for Any Given Saturday.  It certainly didn\'t help any of them.  The two horses with the shortest spacing of their races before and after the Derby were Curlin and Street Sense and it certainly didn\'t hurt either one of them in the Preakness.  

Just curious how other T-Graph players are taking this year\'s results.  I know Jerry\'s Analysis for the Preakness has been criticized in another thread and I guess it was bad.  As bad as my post a couple days after the Derby saying the \"first horse to throw out\" in the Preakness is Curlin.....

Is this year an aberration?  Do you approach the Belmont with a different view, or start by expecting Curlin and Hard Spun to regress big time.  

[high roller]

you people are pathetic, how could you ask such foolish questions based on one race?

[jimbo66]

That was a brilliant post Mike.  Did you think of it all yourself, or did you have help?

[jmetro]

Just wondering.  

Has any horse gone through it\'s first five lifetime starts without running a  Thoro-Graph figure greater than zero?

[miff]

As I have always said, horses are different in recuperative powers, running styles and overall talent/athleticism. To dismiss any horse solely on spacing, or 4 starts vs 5 or whatever is shortchanging the total handicapping procedure necessary to pick winners.

As a long, long time performance TG fig user, I can only say that if you follow the letter of the law dogma,without any other considerations, you will not be successful over time. Jerry has stated on more than one occasion that one must find their own comfort zone in using the figs.


Mike

[marcus]

personally , i\'ll have to wait for the draw or at least ml prices about who exactly to throw out . in\'02 as in other years for instance there imo clearly was some very deteriorated patterns who were prohibrative and i\'m not seeing that this year  . with that said - having had time to think about the preakness fractional times in relation to run-up distance - if curlin ran better than a point top , which he may have , imo he should a bounce next  - but that doesn\'t mean he will  ...  
the thing about curlin i didn\'t like was in the preakness was , aside from no 2 yo races , was potential for the \"editors note syndrome\" - where they basically keep giving you the same number and eventually bounce before finally moving forward - however , we are in a much different era of racing now . i viewd curlin as marginal at best as a play in either derby or preakness ...

[richiebee]

Jimbo:  

     I know this was before your time, and before performance figures were
widely distributed, but in the 1970s there were 3 Triple Crown winners, a near
miss (Spec Bid) and a horse who ran well enough in defeat (Alydar)to win a
Triple Crown in most years. The spacing of the Triple Crown races was  
then as it is now.I\'m not telling you anything here that you don\'t already
know

    Horses used to have to run more frequently out of necessity: Purses were
smaller, and lightly raced stallion prospects, even the brilliantly fast ones
were looked at with skepticism.

    My opinion is that in the year 2007, the top 3 as ranked by Richiebee (SS,
Curlin, HS) are just many lengths better than the colts who have been brought
out against them in the first 2 legs of the Triple Crown. This includes the
overhyped no factor Pletcher contingent and the overhyped no factor California
runners. I believe Curlin and SS could have bounced in the Preakness and still
prevailed.

    I think all 3 of these runners are exhausted now and if their trainers were
prudent all 3 of them would be pointed to Haskell/Travers/ Breeders Cup. I\'m
pretty sure that is where Nafzger is heading with SS. Asmussen and Jones may
be looking at the prospective competition in the Belmont and figuring that they
have a chance of winning even if their trainees are not 100%.

    Curlin still hasn\'t bounced. Hard Spun still hasn\'t shown me he wants to
run by horses in the late stages of a race. It wouldn\'t take much to convince
me that both will be tired in the late stages of a mile and a half race, but
the question will be if there is anyone fast and fit enough to take advantage
of them at Belmont in 2 weeks. If not an exhausted Curlin or HS could
conceivably bounce to a Belmont win.

[fkach]

Every study I have done or seen suggests that horses (in general) with the top figure do better when they come back more quickly, not the other way around.  That doesn\'t mean that horses don\'t wear down from hard campaigns,  bounce from physical exertion from time to time, respond better with extra time when in the hands of certain trainers, etc... but I think the terms and expectations are overrated. Not every figure variation is related to prior exertion or time between races.  

IMO, you have to take it on a case by case basis.

Currently, I would rate Hard Spun as the most likely to regress very soon. He\'s had a long hard campaign that started last fall without a serious rest. I can\'t predict the race he\'ll wear out, but I would insist on \"slightly higher odds\" in the Bemont to compensate for the incremental risk.  I am not predicting a regression. I am just saying it is more likely now than if this was his 3rd/4th start of the campaign.  

Personally, I think these things are more related to the point in the form cycle the horse is in. I also think that not all horses are alike in their ability to recuperate or tolerate a tough campaign.