Preakness Considerations

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I believe Pletcher will opt on the side of caution and skip the race with Circular Way. Theres too many negatives:

A smallish non robust horse;
Some issue post Louisana Derby;
8 weeks layoff and then loss of ground late;
2 Weeks to the next one.
Lack of an opportunity to pack blood in the leadup to the Preakness.

Generally the traditional 0-2-X pattern involves close race spacing. Lets say traditionally 3-4 weeks spacing. Though, there is very little that is a firm and fast rule in this game and thus it may be unwise to look for set in stone structure regarding the 0-2-X pattern. I believe that if Circular Way runs in the Preakness, Pletcher could blow this horse out for the remainder of his year/career. I believe a berth in the Preakness gate has Circular Way sitting upon the \"Mother of all 0-2-X Patterns\". Bluntly, Circular Way is sitting upon an O-2-Breakdown! Lets face it, have you ever seen an O-2-X pattern waiting to happen like this one before?  Big Top, 8 weeks off missing a Wood date due to visual concerns, followed by a late race fade, then back in 2 weeks? I\'m serious with this next statement and don\'t get upset with me if it happens. I think Circular Way could Barbaro upon us. The sport can\'t afford another Preakness put down, but I hope Pletcher runs him, because the more horses the more bettor.

Now lets assume Circular Way does run. Which horse does Velasquez take? We know from the Derby Results that Cordero and Velasquez chose wisely. We also know it was Johnnie\'s choice all along and will be for the Preakness too.  Circular Way was the best finisher and Velasquez outrode Gomez. But its a new race and if Johnnie opts for Circular Way what does it say of Roxanne? Circular Way beat Liquidity and Bwana Bull by about 10 lengths in the Derby. Roxy beat them by a couple lengths at Santa Anita. Post S.A. Derby wire, I\'m pretty sure they went past Roxanne. I\'ve never seen a horse stop like Roxy stopped. He hit the brakes as if he was Gut Shot.

Roxanne....

You don\'t have to hit the brake lights

Roxanne.....

a Gut shot deer in the headlights

7th, 8th or 9th

CtC