What to do with the Preakness

[jimbo66]

Since the post position draw is not likely to affect most people\'s view of the Preakness (only 10 or so will run), it isn\'t too early to look at the race and break it down.  

The analysis for me starts with Curlin, who figures to be a solid 3rd choice.  His finishing a courageous 3rd, with a rough trip, cost me a lot of money and many others who thought he was a \"throwout\" with no 2 year old foundation and three straight 0\'s.  Well, he ran another 0, with a well documented tough trip.  Unfortunately, I think this makes him even more of a throwout.  I think Michael D pointed out in an earlier post he now has a similar line to Brother Derek, who really backed up in the Preakness.  I think it is even worse, because he only had 3 weeks rest into the DErby, ran the 0, which with the rough trip, probably took more out of him than a normal pairup would.  He now comes back on 2 weeks rest, with a lot of bettors out there pointing to the rough trip and thinking he could step up in the Preakness.  I think he runs a stinker here.  The right move with this horse would have been to lay him until at least the Belmont and probably more likely the Dwyer, leading to the Haskell/Travers route.  

Next horse to analyze is Hard Spun.  Tough call.  If he was my key horse, I would have been disappointed with the Derby.  If Street Sense has to go around horses instead of getting the golden trip, Hard Spun may win the race, as SS would likely have lost 2+ lengths of ground on the far turn. I don\'t care what his closing 6 furlongs were (sorry Miff), the horse ran a big race.  Where does he go from here though?  He had six weeks into the Derby, now comes back on 2 weeks.  If it weren\'t for the 2 weeks, I would expect a pairup or better.  Tough to guess at how much the Derby took out of this horse.  For once, I will actually pay attention to the workout and the clockers and see how Hard Spun looks this week.  I will also look at the odds.  If SS goes off at 4-5 or lower, ala Smarty Jones, that could make Hard Spun a decent play at 4-1 or better.  3-1 or lower is too short for me and I will look elsewhere.

I can\'t believe I am going to talk about a Pletcher horse in a triple crown race, after emptying my pockets on Any Given saturday, but I think you have to look at King of the Roxy. I think he is the only bettable horse in the race, if you assume that Hard Spun goes off a strong second choice.  King of the Roxy ran a negative 1 in the Gulfstream race, then probably backed up some in the Santa Anita Derby.  I didn\'t see that figure yet, but even though he lost ground on both turns, I am sure he didn\'t run back to his negative 1.  He now gets six full weeks into this race.  That gives him about 10 or 11 weeks since the negative 1.  I know Pletcher is concerned about the distance for this horse, so you can\'t bet with gusto.  This horse also had a nice 2 year old foundation, so he a right to be better this year.  Off the 10 or 11 weeks, what chance does he have to run back to the negative 1?  I think the negative 1 wins, with a decent trip.  I also think this horse goes off at 8-1 or higher, probably double digits.  

Street Sense.  Well, he is certainly the horse to beat.  he paired his negative 2 (or paired his miserable Bluegrasss, if you believe Ragozin, but that is a different story, and not for this post).  What does he do now?  There was a lot of talk after the race, even on this board about \"how do you let him a get a golden trip on the rail\".  Well, in a 20 horse field, I don\'t think that riders are \"race riding\" against a single horse.  Street Sense was barely the favorite, almost at 5-1, and I doubt that any jockey was thinking seriously about \"not giving Borel the rail\".  Now, in a 10 horse Preakness, with a \"bullseye\" on his back, I think it will be a different story. I don\'t expect the golden trip this time, although he doesn\' necessarily need it, to win.  He has run 2 great races, both at Churchill Downs and both \"poly to dirt\", which is almost like \"turf to dirt\".  We know Nafzger was pointing this horse for the Derby, the same way he did with Unbridled.  I for one, am completely discounting the chance that Street Sense moves forward.  He is not Smarty Jones, who had a bunch of extremely fast races under his belt and then fired another bullet in the Preakness. SS has now had two fast races, both at Churchill, in races where he was specifically \"pointed to\" by an expert trainer at doing that.  I think his absolute best is a pairup, and is much much more likely to back up.  Now, he could back up 2 points and still win this race, if HS also backs up and the previously mentioned Curlin and King of the Roxy dont\' run their big numbers.  But if SS is 4-5 or thereabouts, which I think is likely, I think you have to bet the bounce off the 2 weeks rest.  Don\'t forget, he only had 3 weeks into the Derby, like Curlin\', and now has his 3rd race in 5 weeks.  A move forward would be herculean and a pairup would be a helluva an achievement.  As a gambler, I have to play the odds and bet against either one happening.

I think the play is King of the Roxy, in the race HE WAS POINTED TO, off the 6 weeks rest, running back to his top of 10-11 weeks ago, at close to double digit odds.

[TGJB]

I\'ll save my Preakness comments until this weekend, but I will address the tangential point about Ragozin\'s Bluegrass and Derby figures. In the BG, Street Sense was in a 4 horse photo with Teuflesberg, Zanjero, and Dominican. In the Derby, he won clear and it was 8 back to third in a 20 horse field containing the same 3 horses, all of whom went off over 20-1, and all of whom got beat at least 18 lengths. On Ragozin, SS got the same number for the Blue Grass and the Derby.

[Silver Charm]

Is it possible he got one race right and the other one wrong?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Logical analysis,

I\'ll look at Roxy\'s S.A. Derby again, but my Derby handicapping analysis of Tiago was that Roxy was absolutely gassed in the S.A.Derby. For him to have to run at quicker horses and finish better at a little longer would seem to be a tall order. However Tiago certainly is sitting upon a Derby effort that is buried.

I think Roxy will take money. Its logical. Its a Pletcher shooter, Velasquez probably up. Folks will back him. He may even be third or fourth choice. Regardless of a follow up blood test Pletcher may have him juiced. Once again he would appear to make the exotics interesting by finishing out of them. Personally, I like Chelokee for the role Roxy is suggested for.



Its alwayimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Since the post position draw is not likely to
> affect most people\'s view of the Preakness (only
> 10 or so will run), it isn\'t too early to look at
> the race and break it down.  
>
> The analysis for me starts with Curlin, who
> figures to be a solid 3rd choice.  His finishing a
> courageous 3rd, with a rough trip, cost me a lot
> of money and many others who thought he was a
> \"throwout\" with no 2 year old foundation and three
> straight 0\'s.  Well, he ran another 0, with a well
> documented tough trip.  Unfortunately, I think
> this makes him even more of a throwout.  I think
> Michael D pointed out in an earlier post he now
> has a similar line to Brother Derek, who really
> backed up in the Preakness.  I think it is even
> worse, because he only had 3 weeks rest into the
> DErby, ran the 0, which with the rough trip,
> probably took more out of him than a normal pairup
> would.  He now comes back on 2 weeks rest, with a
> lot of bettors out there pointing to the rough
> trip and thinking he could step up in the
> Preakness.  I think he runs a stinker here.  The
> right move with this horse would have been to lay
> him until at least the Belmont and probably more
> likely the Dwyer, leading to the Haskell/Travers
> route.  
>
> Next horse to analyze is Hard Spun.  Tough call.
> If he was my key horse, I would have been
> disappointed with the Derby.  If Street Sense has
> to go around horses instead of getting the golden
> trip, Hard Spun may win the race, as SS would
> likely have lost 2+ lengths of ground on the far
> turn. I don\'t care what his closing 6 furlongs
> were (sorry Miff), the horse ran a big race.
> Where does he go from here though?  He had six
> weeks into the Derby, now comes back on 2 weeks.
> If it weren\'t for the 2 weeks, I would expect a
> pairup or better.  Tough to guess at how much the
> Derby took out of this horse.  For once, I will
> actually pay attention to the workout and the
> clockers and see how Hard Spun looks this week.  I
> will also look at the odds.  If SS goes off at 4-5
> or lower, ala Smarty Jones, that could make Hard
> Spun a decent play at 4-1 or better.  3-1 or lower
> is too short for me and I will look elsewhere.
>
> I can\'t believe I am going to talk about a
> Pletcher horse in a triple crown race, after
> emptying my pockets on Any Given saturday, but I
> think you have to look at King of the Roxy. I
> think he is the only bettable horse in the race,
> if you assume that Hard Spun goes off a strong
> second choice.  King of the Roxy ran a negative 1
> in the Gulfstream race, then probably backed up
> some in the Santa Anita Derby.  I didn\'t see that
> figure yet, but even though he lost ground on both
> turns, I am sure he didn\'t run back to his
> negative 1.  He now gets six full weeks into this
> race.  That gives him about 10 or 11 weeks since
> the negative 1.  I know Pletcher is concerned
> about the distance for this horse, so you can\'t
> bet with gusto.  This horse also had a nice 2 year
> old foundation, so he a right to be better this
> year.  Off the 10 or 11 weeks, what chance does he
> have to run back to the negative 1?  I think the
> negative 1 wins, with a decent trip.  I also think
> this horse goes off at 8-1 or higher, probably
> double digits.  
>
> Street Sense.  Well, he is certainly the horse to
> beat.  he paired his negative 2 (or paired his
> miserable Bluegrasss, if you believe Ragozin, but
> that is a different story, and not for this post).
>  What does he do now?  There was a lot of talk
> after the race, even on this board about \"how do
> you let him a get a golden trip on the rail\".
> Well, in a 20 horse field, I don\'t think that
> riders are \"race riding\" against a single horse.
> Street Sense was barely the favorite, almost at
> 5-1, and I doubt that any jockey was thinking
> seriously about \"not giving Borel the rail\".  Now,
> in a 10 horse Preakness, with a \"bullseye\" on his
> back, I think it will be a different story. I
> don\'t expect the golden trip this time, although
> he doesn\' necessarily need it, to win.  He has run
> 2 great races, both at Churchill Downs and both
> \"poly to dirt\", which is almost like \"turf to
> dirt\".  We know Nafzger was pointing this horse
> for the Derby, the same way he did with Unbridled.
>  I for one, am completely discounting the chance
> that Street Sense moves forward.  He is not Smarty
> Jones, who had a bunch of extremely fast races
> under his belt and then fired another bullet in
> the Preakness. SS has now had two fast races, both
> at Churchill, in races where he was specifically
> \"pointed to\" by an expert trainer at doing that.
> I think his absolute best is a pairup, and is much
> much more likely to back up.  Now, he could back
> up 2 points and still win this race, if HS also
> backs up and the previously mentioned Curlin and
> King of the Roxy dont\' run their big numbers.  But
> if SS is 4-5 or thereabouts, which I think is
> likely, I think you have to bet the bounce off the
> 2 weeks rest.  Don\'t forget, he only had 3 weeks
> into the Derby, like Curlin\', and now has his 3rd
> race in 5 weeks.  A move forward would be
> herculean and a pairup would be a helluva an
> achievement.  As a gambler, I have to play the
> odds and bet against either one happening.
>
> I think the play is King of the Roxy, in the race
> HE WAS POINTED TO, off the 6 weeks rest, running
> back to his top of 10-11 weeks ago, at close to
> double digit odds.

[TGJB]

SC-- Theoretically, yes. Having done both of those races myself, no. He got them both wrong by around 2 points, in opposite directions-- which is an 8 length swing.

[jimbo66]

I looked at the SA Derby about 3 times today.  Roxy was shortening stride.  But it was his first time running long (he didn\'t run enough in the BC for it to count as experience).  

HE won\'t be 3rd choice though Chuckles.  SS will be 4-5 or lower, HS and Curlin will be 2nd and 3rd choices.  Roxy could be 4th choice, but will still be 8-1 or better.  

I wanted to like Chelokee and/or CP West, as my \"fresh shooter\" off a nice rest, but I can\'t bet them off their \"numbers\".  Both would have to improve 8 lengths or better to win.  They could do that, as 3 year olds, early in their 3 year old season, but I would need significantly better odds to bet on that, than I need for Roxy to pair up his Hutcheson, albeit at a longer distance.

I know \"gallop outs\" mean next to nothing, but the Tiago gallop out was as impressive as one could be and I think this horse would be a force in the Belmont, if he ran.  As such, I hold it LESS against Roxy that he lost to Tiago in the SA Derby by a head, having been at LEAST 3 wide on BOTH turns.

[big18741]

Looks like only eight horses in Baltimore:

SS
Hard Spun
Curlin
King of the Roxy
Flying First Class
Mint Slewlip
CP West
Xchanger

No Chelokee.

[richiebee]

Barry Irwin, quoted by Ed Fountaine in Monday\'s NY Post:

\"I can\'t see us beating Street Sense, The other ones, I can come up with a
scenario where they react to their last race. If Hard Spun runs a huge race
again on a harder surface, I\'d be surprised. Curlin, I love him, but he\'s had a
bunch of hard races.\"

\"Right now, I\'d settle for second. Street Sense is the man\".

Hmmm.

Anyone else think that Pletcher\'s Preakness mystery entrant might be the
runaway winner of the Kentucky Oaks?

[marcus]

best i could figure - out of gwedda , pavorotti , deadly dealer , but the fillie would be quite a story . they probably should have run her in the derby in the 1st place - her numbers seemed imo good enough to be there  . i never heard how she came out of the oaks ...

[jimbo66]

She wasn\'t good enough to win the derby.  SS ran a negative 2, HS ran a negative 1.  They did the rught thing with her.  I would really doubt they bring her back on 15 days to run in the Preakness.  Maybe the Belmont, if SS doesn\'t win the Preakness and the Belmont field gets diluted.

The most interesting Pletcher horse to me that could run in the Preakness would be Scat Daddy.  He ran a complete non-effort, so he could bounce back (ala Louis Quatorze).  His best is competitive here, in the 0 range and if SS and HS back up, Scat Daddy could win, with the right trip.  

But I have read nothing anywhere about a surprise entrant, unless \"high roller\' has inside information that the rest of us can\'t find on the web, it looks like Pletcher is just going with Roxy.

[big18741]

http://www.pimlico.com/NewsEvents/FeatureStories/Details/Baltimore051307.htm

[fkach]

I think I read that Scat Daddy got a little cut up or something in the Derby.

[MO]

I really don\'t think we have seen the best of Hard Spun. He has never taken a backward step figurewise and so far, he has always paired or run a GRADUAL new top. What I mean is that his new tops are not greater than 2 points.

 Now if Street Sense is the one to beat and his best is a negative 2, and Hard Spun has a negative 1 1/4 under his belt, I don\'t see why Hard Spun can\'t run a negative 2 in the Preakness. And he might not even have to (to win it).

[miff]

If you look at Hard Spun\'s races, you could conclude that he is one dimensional speed. Taken back once, he got beat by Tuefels-rat, ugh.The race he kinda stalked wide in third, he was really in the bit also.

Just wondering if he is one dimensional, will that catch up to him as it almost always does with that running style.


Mike

[fkach]

Having studied the \"different figure\" issue relentlessly (for my own benefit), I can say with a high degree of confidence that most of the major disagreements occur when there was an extreme enough pace in either direction to impact the final time, the weather changed, or significant maintenance was done to the track between races.

A couple of those were true for both the Derby and Blue Grass.

When I am unsure of a figure, I look at the ability of the horses in the race, the race development, bias issues etc.... and form a subjective opinion about the race that often helps me determine which figure is most representative of reality. That kind of thing allows me to cut through the methodology issues that often get debated.

I honestly don\'t think it\'s possible to make really fine line pattern reads in circumstances like these. The TG figures line up really well and can be used, but personally I won\'t be making any significant wagers based on a pattern read of them. To each his own.

To me, it\'s obvious that SS ran a lot faster in the Derby than the BG. I am less certain how much \"better\" he ran because the BG was such a boat race the pace didn\'t allow anyone to run their best possible figure (other than \'maybe\' Teufelsburg).

I think HS ran even better in the Derby than it looks because the first 4F of the race were not easy relative to the final time on that track. IMO, he may have even won had he gotten away a little easier or managed a stalking position a few lengths off it without losing much ground.

I don\'t think KOR or Curlin are of the same quality as the top two at this time and don\'t plan on trying to beat either favorite unless there\'s a clear indication that one or both are not acting right coming off their big Derby.

No one is holding a gun to my head telling me I have to make a bet or a pattern read off figures earned in a paceless race and a drying out track with a quick pace.